Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[c3479z] 29/10/2024 14:33

really? phase 3 trial will take at least 18-24 months, presuming results due in calendar 2024 are positive, unless ph3 terminated early due to wonderful efficacy, followed by at least 6-9 months review by the authorities, so they'll need either to do a great deal with partners before starting the study, or raise a lot more cash on AIM to fund ph3, the latter unlikely given the UK's chronic underfunding of Biotech.

Agreed, Glymab and the antibodies under evaluation by Genmab and the other biotech ?Argenx or Seagen could in the shorter term bring in income but this is uncertain.

[markingtime] 29/10/2024 14:03

CountBruga Of course they know!! They have probably got a good read on the SCIB1 data and may very well have already cleared the 27 response hurdle. But they have decided (as clearly stated at the AGM) to wait for the full data set. They probably also have a queue of probable partners for the registration trial, subject to the full data from the 43. And Glymab payments likely pencilled in strongly too.Financing is a complete non-issue, because revenues are in clear sight at this point.

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 13:48

well the good news Plutonium-239 is about $6000 a gram

scancell SCIB1 ... 1 gram will sell for $1.25m

todays Trivia

[countbruga] 29/10/2024 13:23

c3479z - It makes me think they know where the money is coming from to pay those salaries going forward.

[sci102] 29/10/2024 12:15

Mhra does not provide data to scancell, it is the other way around ffs

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 11:58

redmile and vulpes are not thou

ATB

[c3479z] 29/10/2024 11:44

Scancell in a perilous financial position, negative NTAV so SCIB/SCIB1+ trials have to be positive otherwise even more difficult to discern a future as a going concern for its 61 employees, why so many I wonder given the financial backdrop?

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 11:11

I wonder what the Black Hole will look like with the collapse of the OIL price

ouch !

North Sea Tax take

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 11:08

you mean the trial investigator ? Chill

""There simply isn’t enough time for patient 33 to have had their 19 week scan, assessed and MHRA supplying the data to Scancell.""

[chilltime] 29/10/2024 10:53

On another forum one posted thinking the data on scib will be between 70-80% in the coming news.

I’m not sure if some understand the maths.

There are logically only 32 patients that will have had scans and confirmation scans for Q4 data news.

The trigger point is 27 responses.

27/32 is 84%

For 70% it would be 22 responses, thus no data report yet
80% or lower would be 25 responses and still target not hit.

There simply isn’t enough time for patient 33 to have had their 19 week scan, assessed and MHRA supplying the data to Scancell.

So if it is to be data Q4 and based on 27 responses hit, then the minimum response rate will be 84%.

That assumes the news 24th July is accurate on patients immunised (32) and doesn’t include week 13 which could squeeze in more patients.

However the point was checked (by inan) to see of the number included Keytruda, it did not just the BMS combo with the new number 36 included recent recruits.

So my maths suggests a data anytime soon, 27 hit, means 84% minimum.

At which point, finally the promised shouting from Scancell, will start.

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 10:28

whats also interesting he can Take my posts apart on his

"special military operation Channel"

Valuations ... etc etc

But doesn't

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 10:24

its good to see SC102 confusing everyone with his Expert Knowledge even himself

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 10:05

what we are interested in out of 13 patients

1 failed

and one had shrinkage but insufficient to call it 30% ORR

scaled to 32

would be approx 3 on first scan failed

and 3 partial shrinkage

so potentially from 6 to 8 that fail the ORR classification at 12 weeks

""""On 24/7 with 32/43 patients recruited Scancell stated Q4 for SCIB1 results"""

so close !!

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 09:50

Mia

miavoce

Posts: 806

Price: 14.50

No Opinion

RE: ORR and DateToday 09:27
Ray - in the answer to one of the Q&A questions LD indicated that if the tumour has shrunk by 30% or more at the first scan them they are a responder. The tumour may shrink more by the time of the 2nd scan but they are already classed as a responder after the 12 week scan. I would guess therefore that they won't rely on 2nd scans.

I suppose it might just be possible to use 2nd scans and still have results in 4Q but this would mean that virtually all patients recruited by end June i.e. those that will have had a 2nd scan by Christmas (which I guess would be about 29 patients) would need to be responders - giving an ORR well above 90%.

==========================================================================

From The data of the patients that have had two scans you are creating another statistic

the likely hood that the second scan confirms the first

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 09:40

I now know how the trial will be structured

Its ONE review at the End of 6 months or 2nd scan of the last patient treated

both arms of the Trial

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 09:19

well its all down to the Control arm .....

to get the probabilities correct for the adaptive trial

will real world data and all of the phase 3 trials using Optivo and yervoy Match

so if real world is lets say 50% and the previous trials showed 50% ...

will that cause a dramatic change if repeated in a smaller trial ?

we can call that an Anomaly

so even if you compare ORR with treatment arm and the Control arm

will the difference between the two change from expected that would impact the data ...

my answer is NO ...... because you are working from a Big number in the statistics ie real world to a smaller number the control arm which means you have to have a tolerance of accuracy of the smaller group

so lets say the control arm came out at 60% that probably would be within tolerance of the real world data of 50%

what we do know thou is scancell randomised 300 patients and if those patients had a better chance of responding for some unknown reason

that unknown reason would apply to both arms as they both use the checkpoint in the same way

as we know Synergy does exist .... the results will be even better than expected if we have an anomaly

[marcusl2] 29/10/2024 09:07

Glymabs can be used as Radioimmunotherapy.

[gazza] 29/10/2024 08:58

Sorry, nothing wrong, just tired it's bed time nearly.

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 08:12

you seem to have gone silent Ruck

unable to quantify your posts, indeed support your "statements" at all ....

whats wrong ?

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 07:38

what would the effect be if scancell does indeed get a 85% ORR rate ? in 43 or less at time of Null Reponse of 27

do you think like Bermuda ... "you cannot predict a Phase 2/3 random study ? "

even thou its treatment regime is identical

so if you cannot predict it has in effect no monetary value which is why your only talking Royalty income

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 07:32

or are you just speculating that the share price will be 15p ?

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 07:31

Ruck

Do you know what the share price will be after news ?

of

Scib1
Iscib1
Modi-1
2 x Glymab deals

so that we can work out what "massive dilution means"

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 07:28

your problem is like your anomaly Ruck deleting patients

this causes Garbage in = Garbage OUT

because you have NO understanding at all, you in effect generate Garbage

i cannot help you get over that

but i am sure somebody will follow you

[inanaco] 29/10/2024 07:25

No ... the value is 60,000 x $100,000 targeting min 25% market share =$1.5 billion

Scancell owns it why are we getting a Royalty ?