Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 16:12

scancell adjuvant trial probably would use Keytruda using SCIB1 at 1/2 dose

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 16:11

doublet is not approved in adjuvant, pd-1 alone worked better

surgery carries no systemic side effect

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 16:08

chill its a simple Skin surgery .... longer left the more dangerous it is

[chilltime] 27/7/2024 14:31

That’s what I’ve been thinking Marcus. If the Scib doublet is so effective why put people under the knife. Surely it’s best to reduce tumours as best they can pre any op.

[marcusl2] 27/7/2024 13:35

Regardless, I would imagine they will want the Immunobody platform and start iScib+ 2 and 3.

Avidimab would need to be a non-exclusive license to use with Immunobody as Scancell needs it for antibodies and other vaccines.

As Lindy said, there is not an approved DNA platform out there and ours works beautifully in Melanoma.

Maybe a big player will be tempted to buy the whole company.

[marcusl2] 27/7/2024 13:30

But iScib+ and doublet may eventually become the best standard of care.

Even initially taking Moderna`s slice in resected melanoma

This is probably only for the initial high-risk adjuvant melanoma setting for INT,” Singh said. Longer term, Singh predicted peak sales in melanoma could hit $1 billion, while lung cancer and others may bring in two to three times that.

Myles Minter, a research analyst at William Blair, projected that peak sales for the vaccine in melanoma alone could reach even higher—an estimated $1.3 billion.

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 13:25

this is how real wealth is created

so before the internet no market size for the internet

the internet in effect created the wealth

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 13:08

does not quite work like that marcus

Scib1 creates a market size ..... for itself as its an unmet need

if you are knocking out a competitor as standard of care you can predict cake size

but we are adding .... efficacy to standard of care

[marcusl2] 27/7/2024 12:27

That Melanoma market of $1.5 billion annually is just for Advanced Unresectable Melanoma. Whoever licenses Immunobody will expand that to include the bigger Melanoma market.

How can Moderna compete with iScib+ if it is as good or better and off the shelf, immediately available, cheaper?


The melanoma therapeutics market was estimated at USD 5.82 billion in 2022 and is likely to grow at a CAGR of 11.19% during 2023-2028 to reach USD 11.05 billion in 2028.

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 11:44

So Ivy if you are happy to value at 20 x Profit .... that is NOT earnings (dividend)

Scancell capital growth ,... is mind blowing


Bermuda said you cant Predict trial outcomes ......... (probability)

when really it should be "he cannot predict trial outcomes"

and i will leave it there

which one has failed

Scib1

or

Checkpoints

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 11:30

so basically if you are that worried at 14p a share

you really are invested in the wrong place ......

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 11:26

to give you an idea of costs how many patients has scancell treated V money raised recently

the cash raise caries details of what its for

so you can get a pretty good idea of Patient costs to treat in trial

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 11:16

The below chart shows the output of the drug valuation calculator: how the value of a drug program grows over time, assuming the program is successful at each stage (if it fails, the value generally goes to zero). The inputs are cost and time of development, probability of success at various stages of the drug development process, market size, costs of commercialization, and discount rate.

The chart also shows the total investment required to reach each stage, and the probability that a drug reaches a given stage. Later in this post, there's a tool that lets you play around with the assumptions driving this valuation model. The "active case" changes when you change the assumptions below; the "base case" represents the original assumptions.

[inanaco] 27/7/2024 11:14

this calculator is actually based on deals done

[ivyspivey] 27/7/2024 10:52

Miavoce the value will be based on future DCF or discounted cash flow as tgat is the model for these valuations.
As Serratio said it is based on everything proving successful and the risk values are based on average industry KPIs.
The TD report reflects the same

[miavoce] 27/7/2024 10:07

Is that the annual revenue value serrata or annual profit, or something else ?

[serratia] 27/7/2024 09:42

No that's what they think is the value of each product if it succeeds. They then give a chance of success which frankly is a guess. ie if SCIB has a 25% COS it's worth 460/4 at present.

[miavoce] 27/7/2024 09:31

Thanks serratia, so the broker in question gives a current valuation of just under £1bn ?

[ivyspivey] 27/7/2024 09:21

Morning CT
The only example I can think of where a pharma bought shares direct into a small bio as Merck acquiring a 5% stake in 4D which obviously proved a bad bet.
However you have to look at the reasons why they may buy in but it is always a validation of the Science but not proof it will be successful.
I say that as someone who worked at Merck a long time.
Knowlesi point about the potential of Modi as a monotherapy was the big hope and when it proved it required CIs to enhance its activity then that is big threat to future valuations which is why many investors dropped their level of exoectations

[serratia] 27/7/2024 09:08

There is a broker note out which is restricted viewing so no link. In the valuation they give - unrisked

SCIB / Melanoma £460m. Modi 1 £318m, Glymab 1 £217m

[chilltime] 27/7/2024 07:53

Reason for suspicion of possible pharmas buying.

Lindy said last fund raise, bigger funds wanting in for larger amounts, down the road.

Down the road is phase 3 and data to support that is not far away. It sounds like they are doing it anyway.

So why would a loitering fund buy now in the market, likely also relieving some large holders of part of their holdings (Calculus, Seneca etc).

It doesn’t fully make sense, but does if it’s a pharma or knowledge by the buyer that other options to progress are on the table.

Why else buy multi millions now.

[chilltime] 27/7/2024 07:48

Knowlesi

Time and science moves in, Scancell are moving with it, Modi alone does impact tumours, a combo (on paper) as in the case of Scib allows Modi to work better as PDI blockers allow the T cells to attack.

They had no need to waste time and money continuing to prove modi is safe and impacts tumours. The combo is in play we’ll see what data comes from it.

Meanwhile Scib appears to be headed for a registration trial with fast track options, at this time, looking likely.

A thing called Covid hit causing minor disruptions.

Redmile and Vulpes came in to push Scsncell forward. It’s a far different scenario to 2015.

Tesla??? Stupid valuation, impossible way over-priced shorted to hell and it took off, destroying funds. Some AIM companies have been to billions MC and back on promising outlooks but no revenue of note.

It’s how the market works.

Someone posted saying show me a pharma buying AIM shares.


I can’t recall any meaningful takeovers in this sector in the AIM, nothing worth buying, so, no examples available.

[knowlesi] 27/7/2024 07:04

Inanaco - I'll my best to answer your stream of posts:

1) Trinity Delta is their best estimate of intrinsic valuation - it is not the market value. The market value is circa 125m GBP. Mark to market is a risk that you don't seem to accept exists - and it isn't for anyone who can afford to ride significant losses for a decade. Most cannot.

2) At the 2015 AGM LD stated they had interest to do a combo trial with Modi and refused as it doesn't need it. If anyone has a recording of the 2015 agm they could perhaps share and prove/disprove my recollection. I am very certain of this!

3) Why did I ask for your opinion on Modi? Because I want to hear arguments counter to my own to check my own decision making. I don't react aggressively to posters with counter points unlike many and think it's healthy to have counter points to avoid confirmation bias. In this instance - thanks for you input, helpful. I haven't changed my mind but also not arrogant enough to think I am 100% right either.

4) LSE history - my account was deleted (I don't recall asking for this and suspect they did it automatically post my ban for "disruptive Behaviour" - aka requesting payment of a 100 quid charity bet to GF123 (claimed multimillionaire) whom reneged on it. Tells you alot about someone that.

[chilltime] 27/7/2024 06:25

Reading that last post

Why valuations so low, assuming success, which is what investing is all about gambling on future success.

So if the Scope study results in a melanoma treatment to market, Scancell are taking it to market (as it stands) unless a partner makes a good offer.
That’s a $1.5 billion market in the grasp of Scancell from 2028 on, Scib plus generic copies of the combo.
One is off patent (2023), the other to come off patent in 2028.

How is Modi a failure, it’s potentially highly lucrative.

Using Ovarian as there are no PDIs approved. In various PDI trials stable disease ranged from about 5% to the top end of about 45%. Modi alone matched the top end of the best PDI results.

To simplify it I think of PDIs as a suit of armour for T cells to help them survive the tumour environment and attack the cancer cells.

Modi increases the army numbers, with extra firepower and triggering reactions the tumour tries to avoid, reactions that the immune system recognises and attacks.

So logically, with more T cells attacking from more angles, results will improve if you combine the treatments.


If modi starts to show better results in the combo improving the standard of care sufficiently then the patent cliff crew will be all over it.

Patent cliffs

I thought the news about BMS was very telling, abandoning a phase 3 study before it started. due to a change of strategy to create value.

Quote

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) is currently facing one of the steepest patent cliffs in the history of the BioPharmaceutical industry.

BMS is facing many upcoming patent cliffs and is exploring strategies, such as increased R&D investment, licensing/acquisition, and pricing adjustments, to address this challenge.


They just made an announcement which suggests R and D for new treatments is not the priority. Pricing adjustments is about lowering prices post patent expiry to compete with generic drugs which means lower revenue.


Meanwhile Scib is demonstrating knock your socks off efficacy in a BMS combo. BMS are in a dire revenue loss situation in the years ahead.

PDI vaccine combos are looking like a way for big names to extend exclusivity through combination treatments.

Perhaps that’s why they tried Opdivo with ipilimumab, it worked, and kept off patent ipilimumab exclusive in Melanoma.

The generics lot will already have plans for the combo for Melanoma. A Successful Scib to market with 15/18 years patent protection (I keep hearing both) would end those plans.

BMS quite clearly will be on the acquisition or partner trail, surely for anything that protects current income and anything that enhances it.

So why ignore Scancell and Scib, when not just generic challenges are coming, the entire product and income could be wiped out in melanoma.

Then you have the Modi family capable of attacking any tumour, along with Avidimab making any mab more potent.

Scib shown to be safe, modi shown to be safe.

Adding those to already approved treatments shown to be safe and running trials, won’t be difficult.

Not only protecting your own line, if it works, you have the power to wipe out competitor treatments coming off patent and making it their own.

Scientists are clearly favouring the BMS combo over Keytruda. A matter which affects Merck.


So if Scancell proves to maintain its current path, it becomes a no brainer to acquire it. But the longer Scancell keeps seeing success, the more likely backers will present themselves encouraging Scancell to go it alone.

Typically small companies don’t have leverage. Patent cliffs and the already major backers, put Scancell in a strong position.


No risk, I disagree, but the stable is full and the share price nowhere near where it could be post good scib news due in the coming weeks and months. That ignores modi news.

The risk reward is highly attractive. If a recent poster event Lindy saw interest from all aspects, scientists and pharma that she has never seen before in her lifetime.

That is good enough for me to confirm this is a genuinely exciting prospect which could transform cancer treatment.