Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[marcusl2] 11/4/2024 07:55

Yes Bermuda. Arm listed in the States, Shell is thinking of moving.

Although Nasdaq is not a panacea, Scancell`s valuation and media coverage would probably be better.

The end game is probably a takeover so the higher the valuation is when a bid comes in the better.

[sci102] 11/4/2024 05:57

First no one here said 40p in Q2 (I think), second you don't need to be rude. Frankly, I don't think I ever met a single person who fully understands the stock market and that includes very highly experienced and accomplished finance professionals.

[bermudashorts] 10/4/2024 22:24

marcus,

I'm sure you read the series of tweets from Ali Mortazavi - pretty strong stuff!

[marcusl2] 10/4/2024 22:07

London markets are broken and closed, says pharma boss
E-therapeutics joins the stampede of biotech companies quitting Aim

James Titcomb
10 April 2024 • 6:49pm

Ali Mortazavi
Chief executive Ali Mortazivi says delisting the company comes with 'sadness and great worry' for UK markets
A British pharmaceuticals company has criticised London’s stock markets for being “completely broken and closed” after announcing plans to de-list and pursue a potential flotation in New York.

Ali Mortazavi, chief executive of E-therapeutics, said “urgent reform and action was needed” after accusing British investors of failing to back innovative companies.

E-therapeutics said it would de-list, 17 years after floating on Aim, London’s junior market, as part of a £29m fundraising from existing investors.

It said it would “explore the option of listing on [New York’s] Nasdaq in due course”.

Writing on X, formerly Twitter, Mr Mortazavi said: “My overriding feeling in delisting [the company] is one of sadness and great worry.

“To be clear, the UK markets are not just illiquid, they’re completely broken and closed. The situation is worse for small growth companies (in particular biotech) but even sizeable companies such as Shell and many others are saying the same thing.”

[2tyke] 10/4/2024 22:06

Well it turned out that the Q2 2024 share price was 10p- and not 40p+
As usual, the scientific posters were quite wrong in their expectations.
So they resort to the usual nonsense comments like 'under the radar'...lol.
What they really mean is that 'they' don't understand the stock market.
Oh...'it's obviously under-valued' they say...lol
Try 'over-valued' that's why the price is dropping and not rising. PRICE is ALWAYS correct. It is agreed by both the buyers and the sellers.
What the dreamers think is quite irrelevant.

[sci102] 10/4/2024 20:35

No. It is the number of patients, the result and how novel the finding is. Everyone with a psrticular interest in this field already knew about those 13 patients.

[marcusl2] 10/4/2024 19:53

Burble

RE: Fierce pharma article from AACR cancer vaccines Prime timeToday 16:12
Interesting that despite the presentation from SCLP, there is no mention of them in that article.

I sometimes wonder whether the delivery of our data isn’t as exciting. I appreciate our trials are earlier stage, but we never show data or scans from patients who were on the Ph1 trials (though I realise that was when we were trying electroporation), we occasionally show the swimmer plot, but it seems presenting data in the manner that we do, never seems to trigger that a-ha moment. Though I’m unsure what to suggest otherwise.

We had a fantastic opportunity here, sharing a session with some other strong players in this field, but it just seems to have fallen a bit flat.

Maybe that’s me becoming jaded by 14 years here. But I expected at least a minor up tick after all the presentations etc we’ve been doing recently

[sci102] 10/4/2024 16:57

The thing is some of the others were presenting 2 year follow up data from 100s of patients and almost half a year later we are still banging on about those 13. We were accepted to talk in the second biggest ballroom of the conference next to moderna and biontech and we presented old data.
Totally the company's fault.

I just hope they have a better plan in mind.

[nigelpm] 10/4/2024 15:20

Agreed Bermuda - essentially we need more data and evidence points and the silence is concerning the market clearly.

[marcusl2] 10/4/2024 15:16

Scancell is still under the radar!

[bermudashorts] 10/4/2024 14:53

I'm missing something here. The probability of success only impacts analysts' valuations and target prices which appear to have no impact whatsoever on real life valuations. So we can fret all we like about COS but it's largely academic. Would also add that the COS used is largely in Scancell's hands. SCIB1 has been in phase I/II developemnt for over 13 years and has yet to even embark on a randomised study. COS will improve as and when SCIB1/iSCIB1+ moves down the clinical development pathway.

[markingtime] 10/4/2024 12:26

You are right that the probabilities have a massive impact. There are two ways they might change:A) Trial resultsB) Fast-tracking by regulatorsThere is nothing in the share price for the latter.

[marcusl2] 10/4/2024 12:06

We are obviously totally undervalued. It will be interesting to see what the brokers say in Q3/Q4.

[marcusl2] 10/4/2024 11:53

What is intratumoral injection?
Intratumoral delivery of immunotherapy involves the direct injection of immune stimulating agents into the tumor. This primes tumor infiltrating T cells, which then circulate systemically to generate a global antitumor response.



Modi-1: How does the Modi-1 vaccine work?

Modi-1 is a vaccine that may help treat your cancer by boosting your immune system to shrink your tumour.

Modi-1 contains three peptides, these peptides are also known as antigens. An antigen can be any substance that triggers an immune response in your body.

The Modi-1 antigens are small parts of a protein designed to help your immune system fight cancer.

One important group of cells in the immune system are the antigen presenting cells or APCs.

When we inject you with Modi-1, the three antigens are taken up by APCs in your blood. The APCs display the three Modi-1 antigens on its cell surface.

Another important group of cells in the immune system are the T cells. T cells are white blood cells, otherwise also known as lymphocytes.

When a T cell sees an APC with the Modi-1 antigens on its surface, it recognises it. This signal causes the T cell to become ‘activated’.

Cancer cells can also have the antigens on their surface that look like the three Modi-1 antigens.

When activated T cells see these cancer cells, they can then attack and destroy them.

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 11:39

I know marcus but its the probabilities of success that destroys the value they have not adjusted the metric even thou scancells data is off the charts, assumption's that the trial will take 3 to 4 years cannot be confirmed because the endpoint that the MHRA may apply could be far faster especially if the responding patients are hitting 95% reductions and more importantly no NEW METS after 1 year as Prof Sarah Danson has pointed out the NHS is in crisis and its a simple jab done by a nurse

if lindy is correct if you love SCIB1, you will love iscib1 which i always did with my "No risk" posts

then iSCIB1 could increase speed as well with its higher frequency

but the message is ......... It's safe making approval highly likely

[marcusl2] 10/4/2024 11:38

Hopefully we get permission to use CPIs in Ovarian.


TILT-123 in Combination with KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) for Ovarian Cancer


15 patients

disease control was seen in 71% of evaluable patients including one long
lasting partial response in a patient with mucinous carcinoma. Tumor size reductions
and significant immunomodulation were seen in injected and non-injected tumors,
indicating the potential for a systemic response.

Scancell
WITHOUT KEYTRUDA CPI

Dr David Pinato, Principal Investigator at Imperial College, commented: "Advanced ovarian cancer is an aggressive cancer which is hard to treat. A disease control rate of 44% with Modi-1 in patients who have exhausted most treatment options is very encouraging".



The number of patients who have experienced long periods of stable disease following monotherapy with Modi-1 is encouraging in this difficult to treat cancer and the Company believes that combination therapy with checkpoint inhibitors, which are not currently approved for the treatment of ovarian cancer, could further improve outcomes for this patient group. Evaluation of Modi-1 plus checkpoint inhibitors in other tumour types in the ongoing Phase 1/2 study, will provide supporting data for this proposed combination use.

[marcusl2] 10/4/2024 11:19

Stifel offered up a 30p share price target for Scancell in September



Trinity in Jan 24

Cash has been boosted through the December fundraise, with a runway now comfortably into late 2025. Our updated Scancell rNPV valuation is £304m, or 33p per share.

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 11:14

with success comes speed




highlight all

then click on "GO TO"

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 10:23

Finally, 42% of companies that went public in 2018 were in Phase 2 and 32% were in Phase 1. The average IPO post-money was $754M and the median was $501M. These valuations are in line with the higher-end of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 valuations in our model. Most of these companies were cancer or rare disease companies, where you can often get approval on just Phase 2 data. So these Phase 2 companies may be more like Phase 3 companies, which would make their valuations a bit more in line with our model.

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 10:20

if you put the probability of approval at scancells 90%


wow !

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 10:14

making a few adjustments ie to 60,000 patients cost of phase 2 at £20m and phase 3 at 100m

patent life left as default

Value at start of Phase 3
$3,298M
Probability of FDA approval: 56%

Investment required for approval: $155M

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 10:05

whats most striking "default"

Value at ""start"" of Phase 3
$1,248M

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 10:02

Ruck you will enjoy this

a Drug value calculator

as scancell has mentioned 60000 patients for scib's

the default is not far off you can press "calculate" yourself





Assumptions table: explore different scenarios

The default case models a drug that treats 50,000 patients a year. The model assumes a price of $45,759 per year of treatment. This drug price yields an NPV of 0 at the start of the project, and thus is the minimum drug price that would attract investment, given our assumptions about the cost of development.

Our default assumptions for R&D costs come from DiMasi et al, Journal of Health Economics 2016. Below, you can change these assumptions and see how they impact valuation at each stage, and read more about our methodology.

The most challenging part of valuing drugs is figuring out which assumptions are the right ones. This model is only as good as the underlying assumptions.

[inanaco] 10/4/2024 09:46

Bristol-Myers Squibb has priced its ipilimumab and nivolumab combination therapy at $256,000 per year.

which means 45% of that cash spent is wasted ............ if that ratio of patient don't respond

if they have used the adjuvant dosage prior plus surgery and braf inhibitors the costs per patient is enormous ............

we already know in the adjuvant setting SCIB1 works really well as a stand alone Iscib1 should be even better

so what is the Value to any deal .... ? if T vec is valued at $65k a treatment and its not that good compared to SCIB1



this adjuvant area must be explored again in any deal scancell does ...

my own opinion is a partnership why

The statistics from 13 patients gave us a probability of 90% success with 47 patients

if we have the data from ISCIB1 that gives us 90 patients in total plus the original trial in the adjuvant setting

do the maths ............ what is the probability of success at phase 3 ?

I think we can address the entire melanoma market in time and for the industry a very long patent making this highly valuable

just remember the manufacturing cost is similar to an MRNA vaccine which sells for £40 per two dose ..... approx