Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 16:24

this is the vital bit
Multiple studies have demonstrated that TCR-p:MHCII signaling is one of the most important factors influencing the generation of robust CD4 memory.22,46–48 TCR signaling not only exerts the greatest influence during T-cell priming and polarization but also impacts secondary responses. In the primary response, the unique character of the TCR signaling in each cell differentially affects its selection from the naïve CD4 T-cell pool and helps determine which selected clones may preferentially mount primary and/or memory responses. It also helps drive the progressive increase in functional avidity exhibited by memory CD4 T cells throughout the course of primary and subsequent challenges.35

"""progressive increase in functional avidity"""

over time the t cells get more and more potent .....

its like the natural selection of the immune system Darwin

[nigelpm] 19/4/2024 16:22

I can see a path to a £500m business but even that won't be easy.

[nigelpm] 19/4/2024 16:19

That's pure fantasy Inanaco. It really is.

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 16:14

we have data that is conclusive from SCIB1 thus is far easier to place valuations

we are about to get some indication i hope of the potential of Modi1 t cells

if Lindy proves the t cells .......... it applies to all CD4 killer t cells derived from moditope

the difference between them is avidity ..........

Avidity relies on the availability of, and affinity by which the antigen is bound to the MHC molecule, combined with the affinity of the TCR for the MHC-peptide complex. An increase in one, or both, of these factors will increase the avidity of the interaction and thereby the T cell's sensitivity for activation.

now this is way more complicated with CD4 t cells and its the whole point of this trial

SCIB1 high Avidity CD8 t cell .... it works

Lindy has indicated modi1 has the same sort of potential

do we have high avidity or does avidity increase with clonal expansion ?

there are so many questions that i would love answered however i also know that the full potency may not appear for a year ... which is why scancell treat for 2 years

some want information in a hurry .....


moonparty

Posts: 809

Price: 9.60

Strong Buy

RE: A reminder from Inanaco 7839 . . .Today 14:32
"Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?"

I know the question wasn't addressed to me, but I'm answering anyway!

No, it means a market cap way in excess of $6 billion, maybe 5 - 10x (depending on how much of that $6B gets to the bottom line). So potentially $30 - $60 Billion.

I think that's more than £8 a share though - maybe my maths is wrong :)

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 15:50

we get stage payments ... to a max 624

Gemnmab only benefits from the MAX payout to us ie approved

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 15:48

Genmab

The company has 8 approved antibodies (monoclonal and bispecific) used in 8 marketed products, covering cancer indications and autoimmune diseases.[6]

[nigelpm] 19/4/2024 15:46

It's a maximum Inanaco.

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 15:45

Genmab clearly think it might ... are you better positioned than they are to evaluate?

[nigelpm] 19/4/2024 15:43

I wouldn't expect it to get anywhere near $600m - perhaps I'm pessimistic (or realistic) when there has only been payment of £5.3m to date.

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 15:40

rounding from memory ..

if they don't use all modalities then that use will get returned to scancell

Scancell also retains directing car T Cells to that target

Genmab has been granted the exclusive right to develop and commercialise the Scancell antibody in multiple novel potential therapeutic products for any and all potential disease areas,

excluding cell therapy applications. (chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) cell therapy )

[nigelpm] 19/4/2024 15:25

How is it $600m?

From the original RNS:


up to a maximum of $624 million if Genmab develops and commercialises products across all defined modalities. Scancell will also receive low single digit royalties from Genmab on net sales of all commercialised products.

Note use of the words :

maximum
If
All defined modalities

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 15:16

Genmab has NOT returned its target glycan

Lindy says its going well

thats another $600m plus royalties deal based on a target ONLY all risk is GenMab


ISCIB will be approved to proceed to a registrational 2/3 trial

with data using scib1 and iscib1 in over 130 odd patients proven by year end


whats it worth ?

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 15:09

Moonparty i am trying to be balanced ........

if you followed the thread the difference between a double blind trial with results at the end and an open label trial which you can see as you go are all based on "bias" can you be bias when dealing with stage 4 cancer patients

well yes you can if the treatment is marginal ie extends PFS by a few months etc
in which case you need accuracy

but SCIB1 is dramatic and has a Visual element in that you can see shrinkage so all of a sudden you can play probabilities of success which is what Lindy has done 90% chance of success that is going from 13 to 47 a factor of 4 approx

so lets say FDA/mhra wants to see a further 200 patients (400 with random arm) in trial apply the same factor of 4 gives you a probability of 90% from 47 patients

Now that was based on SCIB1

Iscib1 is even more powerful so probability may even increase. If the trial is blind randomised so that you get standard of care dual checkpoint v dual checkpoint plus vaccine so neither the doctor or the patient does not know until day treatment starts this cant be fudged which would satisfy Bermuda

then you can run as open label then apply crossover so patients failing the checkpoints receive the vaccine as well

this absolutely guarantees the vaccine can be proven to work

so the value here is cost of trials verse probability of success

so just based on ISCB1 alone if it works as it should ....... you could easily get to £8 a share ...

you have just proven Avidmab with Immunobdy out classed Immunobody which has just outclassed

MRNA
VIRAL Transfection
Dendritic cell based

as non of these have achieved this level of success

This Market is absolutely stupid !!

90% probability of $1.5b market with a 15 year patent Orphan status and fast tracked

and whats Immunobody now worth ?


moonparty

Posts: 809

Price: 9.60

Strong Buy

RE: A reminder from Inanaco 7839 . . .Today 14:32
"Thanks Inan for a nice reminder. Just asking the question, just for fun, if success should be 100%, does that mean a potential MCap of $6 billion?"

I know the question wasn't addressed to me, but I'm answering anyway!

No, it means a market cap way in excess of $6 billion, maybe 5 - 10x (depending on how much of that $6B gets to the bottom line). So potentially $30 - $60 Billion.

I think that's more than £8 a share though - maybe my maths is wrong :)

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 11:38

sales

To illustrate an example, we estimate the revenue opportunity for Modi-1 alone would be around $9bn in annual revenue (across the 4 indications of head and neck cancer, triple negative breast cancer, renal cancer and ovarian cancer).

this is income from Royalties to Scancell

Both Modi – 1 and Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well.

vulpesinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Scancell-report-20230412.pdf

[inanaco] 19/4/2024 11:03

that was Vulpes values

[torquayfan] 19/4/2024 09:07

Hi Inan - I used your reminder in 7839 on LSE. You've been prolific lately.

Thanks.

[plasybryn] 18/4/2024 18:46

RE: Modi 1Today 15:19Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1045629/scancell-holding-catalysts-are-coming-into-view-says-investment-bank-1045629.html

[marcusl2] 18/4/2024 16:42

Proactive One2One Investor Forum
29 May 2024 | London

Leading companies pitching

Scancell Holdings PLC




Each company has a presentation slot followed by Q & A, giving you the chance to discover the real story

Watch the event afterwards on our YouTube channel

[marcusl2] 18/4/2024 15:58

31 jan 2024
Scancell has a number of important clinical catalysts upcoming in 2024 for its lead cancer vaccines, which are the strategic focus. Readouts include further Phase II data for SCIB1 in advanced skin cancer, first clinical data with second-generation iSCIB1+, and key CPI combination data for Modi-1 in multiple solid tumours. Commercial prospects for these will likely be maximised through partnerships, and positive data could catalyse interest and discussions, in our view. In addition, Scancell’s antibody platforms, GlyMab and AvidiMab, provide attractive out-licensing opportunities. Cash has been boosted through the December fundraise, with a runway now comfortably into late 2025. Our updated Scancell rNPV valuation is £304m, or 33p per share.

[marcusl2] 18/4/2024 15:54

18 April 2024

Stifel notes that Scancell is currently at a compelling point for investment, with high expectations for the upcoming data release and a significant probability of continued success in its clinical trials.

Reiterating its 'buy' advice and 30p a share price target, the bank said: "We continue to see significant value in Scancell's highly innovative approach to cancer vaccine development.

"We see the next 12 months as a potentially transformative period for the business and view Scancell as an attractive investment at these levels."

In afternoon trading the shares were marking time at 9.4p.

[inanaco] 18/4/2024 08:42

Scacells universal Vaccine Homocitrullination

Here, we identify homocitrullinated peptides from three
different antigens that stimulate homocitrulline-specific
immune responses, restricted through multiple HLA-alleles.
We characterized the response to Vim116-135Hcit peptide and
show stimulation of CD4 responses in Balb/c, HLA-HHDII/DR1
and HLA-DR4 transgenic mice and healthy human donors. We
also show that these epitopes can induce effective tumor therapy
in mouse models. Crucially, cancer patients have a repertoire that
recognizes the Vim116-135Hcit peptide, suggesting that immune
responses to homocitrullinated peptides are not restricted to
autoimmune disease. We suggest that the cross-restriction of
homocitrullinated peptide specific CD4 responses may pave the
way to designing an effective universal anti-tumor vaccine.

[chilltime] 17/4/2024 19:18

Dear Lindy

You are hear-by invited to update your information starved shareholders. Confirmatory scans have been and gone with all well past the 3rd scan, and 3 patients missing any at all.

From the hints of excitement in news and rumour control it seems that all is going very well indeed, but as in science (with this current market), it’s not much use without the details, investors want details.

Obviously the nomad considers each event attendance as material news, but it has been shown to not be price sensitive.

TIA

[inanaco] 17/4/2024 18:03

thats revenue to the company scancell .... NOT sales

Modi – 1 and
Modi – 2 could potentially deliver $3bn in peak annual revenues, if all goes well.

£8 lol