Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[torquayfan] 24/4/2024 15:27

Inan you are wired today. ATB

[inanaco] 24/4/2024 15:22

Tf you mean bermudas attempt at tripping me up was a good read .. so you enjoyed him twisted my posts ... then advising us that You can NOT make probabilities on trial success even thou Lindy said you can ....

you need to take off your Rose Tints ... stopping playing the postman of picking out individual posts that only you feel are important and i might add you have not written

so which post are you grateful for ?

that one that indicates £8 is NOT going to happen .... from Bermuda

or mine that presented Vulpes valuation that appears to say it will ! indeed so does trinity but with far heavier discounting for risk

or that you feel my No Risk Posts on SCib1 are wrong in light of the incredible data delivered so far

i just don't think you understand just how good SCIB1 is .......... and if we get similar results in 34/43 patients and maybe better in Iscb1 patients with that efficacy approval becomes a formality

"" A clear development pathway for registration and approval of SCIB1/ iSCIB1+ in the medium term for advanced melanoma has been mapped out.""

missing

"" A clear development pathway for registration and approval/failure of SCIB1/ iSCIB1+ in the medium term for advanced melanoma has been mapped out.""

[ruckrover] 24/4/2024 15:15

"We've seen endless debate on whether Scancell gets to a multi billion dollar valuation or is the next BioNTech, but I honestly don't think that's the investment case here. It certainly isn't for me."Just shows that there are a wide range of hopes and expectations. Anyone is quite entitled to believe this will be another BioNtech and good luck to all that do, I hope you get there.By the same token, anyone with more modest expectations are equally entitled to that view as is the right to exit at any point. They may well be happy with a low(er) exit even if it were to go on to be a blockbuster.As I said on the other board, personal circumstances will influence how long someone is prepared to hold.

[torquayfan] 24/4/2024 15:00

Inan - how I see it is, as being, a little sad, as for a few days, you and Bermuda were co-existing in discussion. and when that happens, the non-science Guys get a good read. That's ended again for now but there we are.

Myself I am grateful for all the comments. From you both.

Trust you are well. In Korat this weekend at 42C - too much for me. ATB

[inanaco] 24/4/2024 13:37

👌
🥂
😉

some will cry they had the chance

[rogerbridge] 24/4/2024 13:26

I'm still accumulating. The win loose ratio is certainly positive.

[inanaco] 24/4/2024 13:01

maybe that all those that keep thinking that his take on the science is some how superior don't actually read his posts or understand what his actual message is

how do you see it TF ?

i will remind you of Supernumerary post

supernumerary22 Apr '24 - 12:40 - 7917 of 7930
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B - thanks, much appreciated. Nothing I wasn't aware of, but good to see them together. Funny how the fortunes of SCIB1 have varied over the years.

""Nothing I wasn't aware of,""

but also he (super) as far as i am aware never bought into scancell

[inanaco] 24/4/2024 12:54

You could be right Lozan ....

maybe you convinced Bermuda ?

Bermudashorts - 22 Apr 2024 - 08:18:03 - 7895 of 7930 Scancell - Pot of Gold or POS? - SCLP
nigel,

We've seen endless debate on whether Scancell gets to a multi billion dollar valuation or is the next BioNTech, but I honestly don't think that's the investment case here. It certainly isn't for me.

[inanaco] 24/4/2024 11:30

also PFS will start to appear soon in the data ......... SCIB1

In the real word setting in patients receiving doublet standard of care CPI therapy alone, the ORR is 50% with a progression free survival of 11.5 months.

and defiantly by the time we start the registrational trial

meeting two endpoints .......... is a huge boost

and a recap .....

there will be no difference in the way we treat patients on the registrational trial to the current designed trial ...

why because we are using the checkpoints as as per approved recommended treatment

with 85% ORR you would not want to redesign the wheel ..........

thus

You "can" predict an outcome

and it has nothing to do with randomisation, that has no impact at all on efficacy

Bermuda may kick and scream .......... Let him !! he sold down his holding

[inanaco] 24/4/2024 11:14

Scancell has it already mapped out .......

"" A clear development pathway for registration and approval of SCIB1/ iSCIB1+ in the medium term for advanced melanoma has been mapped out.""

ATB

[inanaco] 24/4/2024 11:03

Scancell is not marketing its science to the stock market that was done at the last cash call ...

many attending conference may never have heard of Scancell and those that have would not follow Scancell by RNS but by published data

Scancell has published the Modi1 early stage

Scancell has published Scope

so this is what they are presenting

any update is meaningless unless you can prove its the vaccine and not the checkpoints

which is why you have the null hypothesis

I know Bermuda etc would prefer updates like we had with scib1 in the adjuvant trial

But that was a Monotherapy

but then he wants a double blind trial ............. not open label

in which case you would get NO data until the trial is unblinded

the best chance of getting approval is "astonishing" efficacy over and above "standard of care"

just remember Modi1 is going after the hardest to treat .... null rate was 5% with a rate of interest set at 25% scancell has far as we are aware hit 60% as a monotherapy

with checkpoint it rises the Null Rate to 20% and the rate of interest to 45%

and our best shot is still to come by adding CTl-4 that alone raised the potency of scib1 to increase the ORR rate by 25% prior to that it was a 60% with a single checkpoint (which was still higher than the planned target of 55%) (from memory)

[sci102] 24/4/2024 11:01

Price sensitive or not, respect your investors.

[octopus100] 24/4/2024 10:35

Lots of conference presentations - net result.....................?

[inanaco] 23/4/2024 14:01

this beats them all Ruckrover


"""My job involves working with probabilities"""


RuckRover

I'll have to work out how to use the binom.dist function in Excel.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

lets hope one of them using Bill Gates can scale the probability of success from

43 patients to 200

then we can see what happens to Bermuda ... as a probability

1. never to be seen again
2. keeps me on filter so that he never has the embarrassment of trying to reply
3. after selling because of Risk will he buy again

4. what is the null hypothesis of "no risk"

after an adjuvant trial when I have understood the mechanics
after I told every one that synergy with checkpoint has to happen because of the mechanics
after the first stage of scope proving the mechanics
after second stage of scope with its 90% probability

seems my prediction of probability is not bad eh! ie no risk ....100%

Bermuda you really are a sad man and those that brown nose you are such a class act

Ivy Nigel Ruck

[inanaco] 23/4/2024 12:22

for those on the LSE .... apparently Bermuda is your man ...

he completely demolished the idea of predicting outcomes ...

and went full hissy fit

Bermudashorts22 Apr '24 - 09:44 - 7902 of 7921
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inanaco

From your 7899:-

''so the probability of success in further trials will always be higher than the ORR rate achieved so far'

This will be my last post to you and then I'll revert to the filter. Sometimes it's best to stop digging. This statement from you shows a complete and utter lack of understanding of the clinical trial process. Moreover it's highly misleading to those who follow you blindly and you should delete it immediately. If you seriously believe it, no wonder you think there's no risk.

[octopus100] 23/4/2024 12:21

Presenting at 2.45pm today - wonder if anything new - if so you'll get RNS at 2.45 but I'd reckon probs not.

[inanaco] 23/4/2024 12:13

for those interested 27 patients removes the Null hypothesis

ie vaccine failure (the claim that the effect being studied does not exist)

ATB

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 14:57

Moditope if it works with CPI is proving that its the vaccine and not the CPi that's induced a response

That requires numbers treated so that a comparison can be made against whats expected from Checkpoint alone exactly the same is Scib1 ...

this is why its difficult to give information early when used in combination you need all the patients scanned whats interesting from Macmillan the patient with renal had a slow start with only 1 mm reductions and in early posts she thought modi1 was not working ---- then it kicked in as per March post

it maybe we need 6 month of data to achieve conclusive evidence

the resected patients will give us a better idea just how well the t cells are working with Pd-1 and without also you can then compare that to blood work

as a monotherapy its easy

[markingtime] 22/4/2024 14:23

The length of Bermuda's list underscores the point about timeliness of delivery on these points. The plain fact is that if, say, 70-80% of that list can be delivered to expectations, and announced in 2024, the share price will be much higher.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 14:20

have you actually bought shares now Supernumeray ?

[supernumerary] 22/4/2024 12:40

B - thanks, much appreciated. Nothing I wasn't aware of, but good to see them together. Funny how the fortunes of SCIB1 have varied over the years.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 11:35

Based on what Nigel ?

"reality may be closer to a few hundred percent" is that a compound rate ?

[nigelpm] 22/4/2024 11:08

Great list Bermuda - thanks for posting that.

Explains why many of us are invested here. Excellent opportunities for returns even if the reality may be closer to a few hundred percent as opposed to 10x+