Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[marcusl2] 12/4/2023 11:20

We need to thank Martin and Vulpes for the jump Octopus.

[markingtime] 12/4/2023 11:08

"Derisory" is exactly my view. Fortunately I suspect it won't be derisory for much longer....

[octopus100] 12/4/2023 11:08

Marcus looks like your post single handedly moved the market :)

[marcusl2] 12/4/2023 10:27

Perhaps they are underestimating the value of Avidimab if it is used to extend patent lives of some blockbusters.

[marcusl2] 12/4/2023 10:25

Scancell Holdings PLC
Investment summary

Introduction: Scancell is an early-stage bio-technology company that is well positioned in the highly appealing immuno-oncology space. It has years of solid research in 2 main areas: a) cancer vaccines – produced across the Moditope® and ImmunoBody® platforms, and b) antibody products – produced across the GlyMabTM and AvidiMab® platforms.

A significant addressable market: Scancell’s platforms are targeting over 10 types of solid tumours. If all 4 platforms were successful across the many multiple indications, this company could generate $12bn in peak annual revenues by the early to mid-2030s. Even applying a 10% rate of success, this could be a company which could generate over $1bn in annual revenues by the next decade. We believe the market will begin to discount these prospects much sooner, as there are several value creation inflection points through 2023 (detailed in the following point).


De-risked business model, with multiple shots on goal: Scancell’s business model has great appeal both from a science and a business perspective for the following reasons: 1) With 4 distinct platforms, catering to a plethora of indications in the solid cancer space, the company is de-risked from a business perspective unlike peers that might be narrowly focused on only 1 or 2 therapeutic indications. As an example, the Modi-1 vaccine is focused on 4 types of solid tumours (triple negative breast cancer,
ovarian, renal and head and neck cancers). The risk of failure (a way of life in the biotech industry) is thus substantially mitigated, with Scancell’s business model. 2) The availability of real options – with multiple platforms and multiple indications, Scancell’s management has real choices about which products or indications it wants to pursue further, and which assets it wants to sell or licence out or develop in partnership. This enables the company to raise cash (critical for development of future assets) as also avoid dilution at low valuation levels.


Positive Catalysts: There are several value creation inflection points coming along in 2023: 1) Modi-1, is progressing through a phase I/II trial targeting 4 tumour types with results through 2023. If the data is positive for even 1 of the 4 indications (triple negative breast, ovarian, renal and head & neck cancer), it could result in a substantial uptick in share price performance given the probability of success (PoS)
assigned will rise from 15% to around 25%; 2) SCIB1 is in a phase II study on malignant melanomas, and 3) The Glymab antibodies are generating interesting preclinical data – another deal similar to the one with Genmab, but with probably superior economics, would be a fillip to the share price as the PoS will
(at the bare minimum) double to 10%.

Valuation: We view the current share price as derisory; reflective of poor market sentiment for biotech stocks and the early-stage nature of the business, with management too focused on the science, rather than medium- and long-term commercial aspects. If Modi 1 were successful across all 4 tumour indications, it could deliver c.$2.8bn in aggregate profits (present – value adjusted, but not probability adjusted) based on our (Vulpes) estimates. Even adjusted with a 10% PoS (probability of success) that would imply a market value of c.$280m – a c.62% uptick vis-à-vis the current market cap of around $173m. And this is from a single asset. Modi-2, which addresses other solid tumours like colorectal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and prostate cancer, among others, could (if successful across all indications) deliver c.$2.3bn in profits (our estimates; present – value adjusted, but not probability adjusted). Even adjusted with a 7% PoS that would imply a market value of c.$160m – which again equates to almost the entire current market capitalisation of the company.

[connello] 12/4/2023 10:23

Excellent Report. Thanks Dom

[marcusl2] 12/4/2023 10:21

Scancell Holdings PLC
Investment summary

Introduction: Scancell is an early-stage bio-technology company that is well positioned in the highly appealing immuno-oncology space. It has years of solid research in 2 main areas: a) cancer vaccines – produced across the Moditope® and ImmunoBody® platforms, and b) antibody products – produced across the GlyMabTM and AvidiMab® platforms.

A significant addressable market: Scancell’s platforms are targeting over 10 types of solid tumours. If all 4 platforms were successful across the many multiple indications, this company could generate $12bn in peak annual revenues by the early to mid-2030s. Even applying a 10% rate of success, this could be a company which could generate over $1bn in annual revenues by the next decade. We believe the market will begin to discount these prospects much sooner, as there are several value creation inflection points through 2023 (detailed in the following point).


De-risked business model, with multiple shots on goal: Scancell’s business model has great appeal both from a science and a business perspective for the following reasons: 1) With 4 distinct platforms, catering to a plethora of indications in the solid cancer space, the company is de-risked from a business perspective unlike peers that might be narrowly focused on only 1 or 2 therapeutic indications. As an example, the Modi-1 vaccine is focused on 4 types of solid tumours (triple negative breast cancer,
ovarian, renal and head and neck cancers). The risk of failure (a way of life in the biotech industry) is thus substantially mitigated, with Scancell’s business model. 2) The availability of real options – with multiple platforms and multiple indications, Scancell’s management has real choices about which products or indications it wants to pursue further, and which assets it wants to sell or licence out or develop in partnership. This enables the company to raise cash (critical for development of future assets) as also avoid dilution at low valuation levels.


Positive Catalysts: There are several value creation inflection points coming along in 2023: 1) Modi-1, is progressing through a phase I/II trial targeting 4 tumour types with results through 2023. If the data is positive for even 1 of the 4 indications (triple negative breast, ovarian, renal and head & neck cancer), it could result in a substantial uptick in share price performance given the probability of success (PoS)
assigned will rise from 15% to around 25%; 2) SCIB1 is in a phase II study on malignant melanomas, and 3) The Glymab antibodies are generating interesting preclinical data – another deal similar to the one with Genmab, but with probably superior economics, would be a fillip to the share price as the PoS will
(at the bare minimum) double to 10%.

Valuation: We view the current share price as derisory; reflective of poor market sentiment for biotech stocks and the early-stage nature of the business, with management too focused on the science, rather than medium- and long-term commercial aspects. If Modi 1 were successful across all 4 tumour indications, it could deliver c.$2.8bn in aggregate profits (present – value adjusted, but not probability adjusted) based on our (Vulpes) estimates. Even adjusted with a 10% PoS (probability of success) that would imply a market value of c.$280m – a c.62% uptick vis-à-vis the current market cap of around $173m. And this is from a single asset. Modi-2, which addresses other solid tumours like colorectal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and prostate cancer, among others, could (if successful across all indications) deliver c.$2.3bn in profits (our estimates; present – value adjusted, but not probability adjusted). Even adjusted with a 7% PoS that would imply a market value of c.$160m – which again equates to almost the entire current market capitalisation of the company.

[888icb] 12/4/2023 10:21

Rising rapidly now 19.25p Up 13.2% on volume of just 473000.

[torquayfan] 12/4/2023 10:15

DC I can't link it either . . .
But it works on LSE Falsedawn 10.06

[dominiccummings] 12/4/2023 09:52

Not sure that anyone can have seen this before the rise today, but comprehensive report on Vulpew site (always worth checking on).


[...]

[markingtime] 12/4/2023 09:40

It is all chickenfeed.Come back and get excited when it crosses 40p (again).

[plasybryn] 12/4/2023 08:58

Trial result update and International Conference now within spitting distance. Buying in anticipation no doubt. You have to be in to take advantage as they say. Good luck all long & short holders

[888icb] 12/4/2023 08:40

Strong start Up 4.4% on low volume and currently Number 20 on the Leaderboard.

[j777j] 12/4/2023 08:21

All that end of year tax selling has been happily scooped up

[j777j] 11/4/2023 13:03

Bid this year probably around 40p

Has to be part of a larger group plain and simple


Plenty of M&A about

[ivyspivey] 11/4/2023 12:04

Yep Loz many things have changed especially people’s attitudes.
I remember going on a Training Course in London about 20 years ago and the vast majority of folk on it wanted to leave U.K. for a whole host of reasons crime/immigration/ money etc including many in 30s and I thought how sad they could not be content with life where they were.
Instead they wanted to be somewhere or have something else and fair enough like yourself choosing to enjoy SW France or Thailand or wherever whereas I am really happy in U.K. aoaet from SARF London lol.
At least me and you have been content with our lives enjoying the simple things and nit worrying about the day the SCLP boat comes in unlike sone who just seem so angry all the time and blame everyone else with the jealousy pouring out of them.
I wish they could just be happy rather than wish their lives away thinking any of us are little mote than a speck on the planet.
Sadly I think by the time they realise their folly it will be too late but as you know sone get their pleasures out of dreaming about being happy rather than just getting on with it.

[markingtime] 11/4/2023 11:38

Not surprised by the gloom. I notice the same miserableness whenever I encounter groups of leftie remainers..... Permanently miserable people whose only pleasure is making others as miserable as they are....

[the real lozan] 11/4/2023 10:57

Morning Ivy -
Mrs Lozan and I were just discussing how things have changed over the last years.
It seems the life/energy has been sucked out of people.
20 odd years ago life had colour, this area of S W France around St.Antonin Noble Val was bouncing - Property prices were through the roof - Escape to the sun was all the rage - life was there to enjoy.
Brits, Dutch, Danes,Belgians etc (a mini United Nations ) flocked here to soak-up the traditional French lifestyle/ambiance/good weather. Many buying second homes.
NOW - mostly ALL GONE
Travel costs, Time to travel,general FEAR mongering = All took away the pleasure of life,
Replaced by a 'dog eat dog' drive for money gain = NO LIFE at ALL/ Back to black and white... GLOOM... was it just a 'trend' ???
What changed ??? The lifestyle/ambiance/good weather didn't change
So, Some might ask themselves = WHAT DID CHANGE ???
I would say of those gone- They never really came to stay
But those who did come to stay STILL enjoy the life they came for

[ivyspivey] 11/4/2023 10:11

Morning and happy birthday Loz- you certainly have life sussed enjoying it whilst we all wait for gain here in sone cases well over a decade lol

[marcusl2] 11/4/2023 09:59

U.S. spending $5 billion to speed up development of new COVID vaccines

[the real lozan] 11/4/2023 09:52

Happy birthday -
2 me
75
.
There is at least some life still left in me...unlike the trHYPE crew here

[marcusl2] 11/4/2023 09:46

Scib-1 plus CPI data will hopefully be very good. Then iScib a greater improvement possibly curing 50% and will work on 98% of patients.

A stumbling block for a licensing deal was electroporation which has been resolved by using Pharmajet now.




The companies are discontinuing the phase III LEAP-003 study of Keytruda (pembrolizumab) plus Lenvima (lenvatinib) for first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma because it did not improve overall survival (OS) vs. Keytruda as a monotherapy.

[inanaco] 07/4/2023 07:48

However, a separate study by St George’s Hospital found that wearing surgical masks in a large London hospital during the first 10 months of omicron made no discernible difference to reducing hospital-acquired Covid infections.

Masks ended, infection did not rise
Researchers from the hospital looked at infection rates between December 2021 and June 2022 when staff and visitors were required to wear masks in both clinical and public areas compared with after the policy was ended in June 2022.

The analysis found that despite a Covid surge in June, and the ending of masks, the rate of infections was no higher.

“Our study found no evidence that mandatory masking of staff impacts the rate of hospital SARS-CoV-2 infection with the omicron variant,” said lead author Dr Ben Patterson, from St George’s University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London.

“That doesn’t mean masks are worthless against omicron, but their real-world benefit in isolation appears to be, at best, modest in a healthcare setting.”

Telegraph

[panama7] 06/4/2023 22:17

Lozan, if you are not able to see it, I can assure you the revolution is well underway. The freedom fighters have set fire to Macron's favourite restaurant and they have invaded the head office of Black Rock. This is not about Pensions , this is much bigger.

[the real lozan] 06/4/2023 15:11

P7 -
Haven't had a tele for over 23 years
What I CAN tell you is folks here in our neck of the woods admit to having been FOOLED by jibbyjab scare tactics...BUT = NOT anymore
Macron'n'co are 'toast'
'Oak logs' are a means of FREEDOM
If the 'Jackboots' resort to cutting off the electics = to enFORCE their will to make people submit ( no light,heating,cooking ect) having a stock of 'alternative energy' is a defence against TYRANNY
The 'masses' will eventually 'Wake up'....'RISE UP'