Savills Share Discussion Threads

[nickcduk] 09/1/2009 14:04

Good opportunity to lob a few out at current levels. Housebuilders have had a good run and SVS has got dragged into the slipstream. In fairness SVS looks a screaming bargain compared to the housebuilders but not particularly attractive relative to the rest of the market.

[samsan] 09/1/2009 14:02

Simon K..... This seems to be going way against U almost vertical. Is it some kind of bear Squeeze going on, any thoughts?


Sam

[the diddymen] 06/1/2009 22:48

They normally come in threes, and I presume the poison pill (third) will be on the 11th of March, when I suspect they will dispense with the tiresome dividend.

TD

[shanksaj] 06/1/2009 22:34

Profit warning? What profit warning? Who cares anyway? share price seems to be defying gravity.

[blondviking] 17/12/2008 08:43

Only to be expected.
SVS are usually very proactive and strong controllers of thier business. They will have plans in hand to lower costs dramatically. I expect an announcement soon, perhaps post xmas, of office closures and redundancies. We may then see a small bounce from where we are now if the plans are dramatic enough!

I will start buying again when price reaches sub £1.50

[jgoold] 17/12/2008 08:41

Nick, looking at these also. However the risk of losing everything with some of these trusts is much higher than with Savills.

[nickcduk] 17/12/2008 08:39

SVS is effectively a punt on property transaction market recovering and with that prices stabilising as well. Have a look at the discounts European property trusts as trading at. If markets do stabilise and they can start to make disposals then they are likely to benefit far more than the likes of SVS.

[jgoold] 17/12/2008 08:33

Over the last month I've been looking to buy a number of shares for the longer term, focusing on survivors and looking at profit levels pre the last few years of excess. I don't know how to call the bottom so I'm $ cost averaging over the next 12 months and have money in reserve to buy more of the likes of Savills if they are again sold off.

If I was looking at short term trading I wouldn't buy these either, but then again I find it difficult to trade short term.

[johnrxx99] 17/12/2008 08:26

Yes, surprised it has held up so well really. Only one way to go imo.

[nickcduk] 17/12/2008 08:26

This is the second profits warning announcement in the last 2 months. Todays news says they will miss the already lowered numbers from a couple of months ago. Not sure why you are so bullish jgoold. Valuation even on 2010 numbers isn't compelling. If you are focusing on them surviving and prospering when conditions normalise. You could make that argument for most of the market where valuations are a fraction of what SVS is currently trading at. Dividend cut is also likely.

Bit annoyed I didn't close out partially earlier on. Market has a very bullish hue and shorts are looking to close out of situations as hedgies face redemptions. May support the price for a couple of days but I expect selling to kick in again soon enough.

[the diddymen] 17/12/2008 08:23

JG

Like ND I am short in these shares. While it is primarily a protective short, I also felt that there were significant exposures to SVS, other than the weak property market. My main concern for the company is the constant anecdotal reports of over valuations by SVS in the good times. The risk to the company is that they are not going to pick up the counter cyclical insolvency work (because the lenders appointing receivers, who have been affected by the over valuations, will not allow them near property), and the risk of legal action for those over valuations. A subsidiary concern is that on the estate agency side there has been a delay in general market conditions flowing through into high value properties. This has now happened and it will impact SVS from now on.

TD

[jgoold] 17/12/2008 08:22

If you reset your expectations of Savills post crash to 2003 numbers you have EPS of 18.5 and operating cash flow of Stg 48 mm i.e. trading on a cash flow multiple of less than 7 based on 2003 figures and a PE of 8.5

[jgoold] 17/12/2008 08:11

Why would today's announcement be a surprise to anyone given what's happening globally? The reasons to buy and hold these have not changed - the best brand in property, very low leverage that will allow it to survive, operating flexibility that will allow it to shed costs (i.e. people) quickly and a wide geographic spread of business. I bought into these in a number of tranches with a weighted average proce of around 235 and will add more if they go much lower.

[spob] 17/12/2008 08:09

lower than current consensus is new

[nickcduk] 17/12/2008 07:38

Be lucky to go below 200p. On the last profits warning (only a few months ago) it touched 200p and ended the day up. Today's isn't really adding anything new. Very happy to be proven wrong though as I am short 20k shares.

[spob] 17/12/2008 07:38

tin hats time

[ydderf] 17/12/2008 07:26

ooops!

sub 120p close on the cards imho

[the diddymen] 05/12/2008 21:33

This one has gone quiet.

[martinadilsmith] 27/10/2008 13:51

I think you'll see the profits warning give rise to greater voltatility with strong downward pressure.

Time to get out I think.

[kibes] 17/9/2008 13:13

It did actually hit 250p spot on in the pullback. But now it is heading up again. However, the situation is extremely uncertain and I have no idea which way it will go from here.

[jockthescot] 16/9/2008 09:56

Well done Kibes.
Slightly helped by external factors, but well done!

[kibes] 16/9/2008 08:24

..and just closed my short at 258p, perhaps a bit early.

[kibes] 10/9/2008 15:17

Opened a short at 300p today. Correction now overdue in my opinion.