Savills Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 29/8/2008 08:17

350p my target - 2 weeks or less.

CR

[nickcduk] 28/8/2008 22:02

I think your forgetting what type of market we are currently in. A p/e of 10 is very generous for a property related company in current market conditions. Transaction side will get worse because the buffer of the high end properties is starting to get hit. That protected SVS somewhat even whilst the rest of the market was getting trashed. London market hasn't collapsed like the rest of the country so there will be further pain for them there. Falling house prices equate to falling commissions as they will charge a percentage of the selling price. The rest of the property sector maybe bouncing but it is little more than a bear market rally. Likes of SVS will only start to regain its poise once its end user markets begin to improve. That will be when house prices stop falling and commercial property market levels out. Neither of those are likely on the horizon anytime soon.

[cockneyrebel] 28/8/2008 21:21

Why's it really silly then? SVS are ahead on Arbuthnots forecasts, on a PE of 10, no debt and many of their competitors are going to the wall. A fabulous brand, a terrific history of growth. All the property sector is bouncing, mortgage numbers were flat this month rather than still falling. A rate cut looks on the cards before year end and if somewhere bounces first it will be London where SVS have a big presence.

I bet these can go to 350p with ease over the next few weeks.

CR

[kibes] 28/8/2008 17:24

Really silly spike up today. However there is probably enough wind in it for a bit more tomorrow. I am waiting for a further high before opening a short. nickcd you are spot on but they may try and give you a roasting first.

[cockneyrebel] 28/8/2008 15:30

Impressive ah? About time they did this, the builders have rallied loads over the past few months.

Reckon there will be a buy note out from someone in the next few days. Some positive preess coverage too I would think - watch ot for a rally at the close that's what happens when SVS gets motoring - can rally for days if you look at the chart.

CR

[nickcduk] 28/8/2008 15:29

Not worried about the spike higher and position going against me. Ive been in a similar situation before with SVS and ended up collecting big. Don't imagine it will be any different this time. Plenty of ammo to add higher up.

[phillis] 28/8/2008 15:27

Lovely smell of burning flesh!

[nickcduk] 28/8/2008 15:27

Lest I be accused of ramping.

[dasv] 28/8/2008 15:15

erm - thanks for the ramp. Taylor W just had to write down over a billion in land/property value as they finally marked to market. Therefore I think I'll give the REITs a miss....

[nickcduk] 28/8/2008 14:28

Lobbed out an initial short position around 277p. Real estate sector is up over 4% today in a market that already has the feel of a bear squeeze. Would expect it to come off in due course. Have a long position in an undervalued property company yielding 14% as a hedge.

[lbo] 28/8/2008 14:22

House prices still plunging



Savills said there had been a "significant" fall in sales volumes, both in the UK commercial and residential markets, thanks to the continuing credit squeeze.

Underlying pre-tax profits at the group's core division fell to £2.5 million during the six months to June 30, compared with £20.9 million the year before. Revenues were down 22 per cent to £105.3 million, with weakness also cited in Europe and the US.

The group said transaction volumes were down 45 per cent in the London housing market during the period, with prices 7 per cent lower. Prime country property was initially less affected than in the capital but is is now following suit, it added.

Savills' overall underlying profits, including operations in Asia, were 41 per cent lower at £19.2 million during the period, with revenues 2 per cent lower at £278.1 million.

[dasv] 28/8/2008 14:00

yep its asian property, cash balance and property management/services/consultancy which is holding the co up

[jockthescot] 28/8/2008 13:32

DTZ is no way near as diversified as Savills Nickcduk. That is the key here.

[nickcduk] 28/8/2008 13:16

Just a bear squeeze imo. I would be ready at the exit personally. Have a look at previous bear squeezes and the way they unravelled. DTZ is in the mire and would be a better recovery play if people actually believed conditions had hit rock bottom.

[dasv] 28/8/2008 13:04

sincerely happy for you all - (someone in my family has a fair wedge of these still). If it can hold about 265, then next resistance is 300.

[cockneyrebel] 28/8/2008 11:01

:-)

0932 GMT [Dow Jones] Savills (SVS.LN) interim results are slightly ahead of Arbuthnot's forecasts, with profit before tax of GBP19.2M and EPS of 10p beating an expectation of GBP17M profit before tax and EPS of 9.6p. Analyst Nan Rogers says a maintained dividend of 6p was expected. "Savills is a well-managed company and we remain of the view that the current P/E of 8.5x undervalues the company," she says. Maintains a buy rating and 300p target price. Shares +11% at 269p. (JNC)

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Last time these broke out they rocketed - expect fun imo.

CR

[matthewa] 28/8/2008 09:28

CR - Does it again!

[cockneyrebel] 28/8/2008 09:08

breaking out

CR

[cockneyrebel] 28/8/2008 09:01

gonna do higher eps in H2 from what they say - 6.7% yield maintained - looks cheap - PE 8 and that yield for Savills?

Bottomed imo as I posted above - back to £3 imo

CR

[phillis] 28/8/2008 08:40

Pretty good results in the circs - speake well fpr the business model

[jockthescot] 28/8/2008 07:54

Not bad interims given the doom and gloom out there. Just shows the diversification Savills has which props up current underperforming areas. Would be surprised if we don't see a rise today.

Jock

[johnrxx99] 20/8/2008 10:03

Just don't see it CR. Property has only just started the downward leg, a year or two to go before a bottom. So on basis of the market looking 9 months ahead can't see a definent bottom until July 09, perhaps.

[kristini2] 20/8/2008 09:18

i know someone who works at allsops. They are cutting costs and salaries big time, my friend who works there thinks there is trouble ahead. Does anyone have an insight to the comparative business models of the two companies.

svs has over £100m in cash I understand. However they may have fallen below a £1 in the last property slump and may well hit sub £1.50 in this slump..imo

[cockneyrebel] 20/8/2008 07:56

Very firm yesterday - up day today imo

CR