Savills Share Discussion Threads

[jockthescot] 26/2/2009 08:53

Well well well, anyone know anything I don't?
Results out in a couple of weeks.....

[djalan] 26/2/2009 00:29

With hyper-inflation on the cards, thanks to GMB -- Gordon Mugabe Brown

What do we do with cash ? -- it won't earn much interest in the bank or B/S

Invest in property and get a rental return while waiting for appreciation, or buy Gold and pay to keep it in a bank vault ?

[djalan] 26/2/2009 00:15

Header updated

Anything else.......... just ask...........

[blondviking] 26/2/2009 00:04

Whilst I also agree with points above, I suspect that SVS will soon announce changes that they have made (offices closed & redundancies etc)in last three months.

[armaan17] 25/2/2009 23:25

This was the reason, if some1 was in same boat as me.....:-))

Mickey Clark

There are signs the property sector may be enjoying a spot of massage by fund managers as the month draws to a close.

JPMorgan has moved to overweight in Hammerson, which led blue-chips higher with a rise of 23¼p to 334p ahead of the start of trading in the nil-paid shares tomorrow. This follows the company's deeply discounted seven-for-five rights issue at 150p to raise almost £600 million, announced earlier this month.

Citigroup and UBS are taking a more bullish approach to British Land, up 30¾p at 432¼p, and Land Securities, 29½p better at 529p, after similar fund-raisings. British Land is raising £740 million and Land Securities £756 million.

The sector has also benefited from a move by high-flying hedge-fund operator Crispin Odey to cut his short position in British Land. His Odey Asset Management previously had a short position of 0.27%, worth almost £6 million. That has now been cut to below 0.25%.

Segro, formerly Slough Estates, rose 13p to 100p. It has been in talks with the banks, and has thrashed out a deal on covenants covering loans worth £1.7 billion. The property developers have been staggering under a big surge in debt following the collapse in commercial property values. A number have been forced to go cap in hand to shareholders to raise funds and strengthen their balance sheets, rather than breach their banking covenants. This has led to talk of a share placing at Liberty International, up 18p at 334½p.

There was relief among investors at the bounceback on Wall Street overnight and in Asia this morning. But shares in London traded below their best levels after a brisk start. Persistent concerns about the ongoing bank crisis continues to dampen sentiment. The FTSE 100 index saw its lead cut to 48.49 points to 3864.93 after touching 3884.06.

Financials led the charge amid signs some punters had chosen to close their short positions. Royal Bank of Scotland put on 1.3p to 23.4p while Lloyds Banking Group added 5.1p to 59p ahead of results on Friday. HSBC was up 24¼p at 496¼p ahead of next week's full-year results. Deutsche Bank has cut its target from 532p to 510p, warning the outlook for the bank remains challenging as a result of rising loan losses and further risk-asset writedowns.

Action may be needed to bolster HSBC's capital ratios, but a large-scale rights issue will not be easy to get away in the current environment. Elsewhere, Prudential's helter-skelter performance continued apace with the shares accelerating 9¾p to 276½p, having traded within a range of 250p and 305p during the past week. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods says the Pru appears to have moved into pole position in the bidding for American International Group's Asian arm. It has repeated its outperform rating on the Pru and 797p target. Revived bid talk lifted Old Mutual 2.5p to 42.8p ahead of next week's results.

Talk of stakebuilding was behind a rise of 15¼p to 228p in pubs chain operator Mitchells & Butlers as more than 1.2 million shares changed hands. At the last count, billionaire financier Joe Lewis held 88.3 million shares, or 21.7% of the company. The price has dropped from a peak of 892p since the summer of 2007 with the smoking ban, recession and competition from the supermarkets taking a toll.

Aero-engines maker Rolls-Royce jumped 11¾p to 291¼p after UBS raised its rating from sell to neutral and repeated its 280p target following recent results.

White van man's favourite Northgate slammed into reverse with a loss of 29¼p at 39¾p after yet another profits warning. The van-rental group is regarded as an accurate barometer of the economy. The company says trading condition have deteriorated further, and it is now looking to renegotiate its banking covenant terms.

Investors drew some crumbs of comfort from Barratt Developments' latest trading update. Barratt rose 10½p to 82p and there were also gains for Berkeley Group, up 49½p at 857p, Bovis Homes, 14p at 363p, and Persimmon, 27¼p at 321½p.

[armaan17] 25/2/2009 15:47

Whats driving these today, anyone?

[cockneyrebel] 17/2/2009 14:08

In for a few more at this level - great point on the chart.

CR

[the white house] 16/2/2009 19:59

good day against the flow...268p x 3 and back down since Nov...close above & away??

[cockneyrebel] 16/2/2009 09:43

Look at that chart curving upwards - going to make a sharp break north soon like the MKS chart imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 15/2/2009 16:33

Chart has broken the down trend resistance.

Saw this in the Mail:

Berkeley Group doubles sales and raises prices.



CR

[cockneyrebel] 13/2/2009 08:47

About to break out after what they said yesterday imo.

Builders all flying too.

CR

[the white house] 12/2/2009 16:12

Hi Guys

Gone long today June 09 @ 259p & BKG...Think that what i'm hearing from local agents, from my own street! & interest rate falls that more upside than downside from this point. Like the Knight Frank write up today that London superprime likely to lead the island out of the wilderness

TWH

[shanksaj] 12/2/2009 12:11

Armaan,

I'm no expert in analysis either... but the left shoulder formed in 2004 (see 10 year chart) and the right shoulder has been forming over last 12 months.

March 11th results will very likely be crunch time for this share. The company might just be able to put some kind of positive spin on the results, eg "things are beginning to look up". If they get up to those tricks, then I would expect a profits warning a few weeks after that.

[symphonie des grauen] 12/2/2009 00:29

anyone any thoughts on DTZ? Placing out of the way from dec 08 raising around £50M. mcap £80M. debts of £75M and renegotiated with RBS. will do well on upturn. up today by 32%.

[pillion] 12/2/2009 00:20

Here is a weekly chart -- I would counsel caution


No advice intended


free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[pillion] 12/2/2009 00:12

Land ahoy !!!

Is djalan's header chart about to go positive again ?

[armaan17] 11/2/2009 23:19

SHANKSAJ : When you say,"with a head and shoulders now forming suggesting the price will fall to sub 100p" what time span you looking at? Would u mind emplaning a little, how this head and shoulder forming, im little novice but enjoy technical analysis. Thx in advance.

[shanksaj] 10/2/2009 23:01

Cr

With respect, I think you've got this one horribly wrong. The ten year chart shows a classic double top in 2006 & 2007, with a head and shoulders now forming suggesting the price will fall to sub 100p. The short term chart clearly shows the share price is going to break out of the current range quite soon... there are enough bulls such as yourself around to be holding the price up, waiting to dive in on any good news. Obviously the results of March will be crunch time.

The international economic troubles have really only just begun IMO; this isn't the time to be looking for any upswing in this sector.

Looking again at the ten year chart, we are not now in the economic environment of 1999 to 2005 much less the world of 2006/early 2007, so why anyone imagines there is any upside to the current share price of 250ish is extremely mystifying to say the least.

Finally, why would anyone want to buy into London again anyway?.. as soon as the Lisbon Treaty/(ie the EU Constitution) (waiting for the Irish to bow to the pressure) is ratified London will become a regional capital of the EU superstate, with Westminster being able to do nothing about legislation coming from a Brussels which is largely socialist with little to no understanding of, and no sympathy for, the workings of the City of London. The City of London financial institutions and expertise will move out when the legislation gets too damaging - if the Irish are shrewd they will try and get themselves kicked out of the EU and then Dublin can receive the exodus from London. Furthermore, the civil service in London will become increasingly unnecessary, another downer on London house prices.

[johnrxx99] 04/2/2009 03:52

Property deflation cycles last 6 years on average and this one started in mid 2007. Commercial property is not coming back soon. Look at SGRO and BXTN.

Yes there are deals to be done in any market but this is a distressed one.

I'm pleased to see SVS is holding up when compared to DTZ but fail to see where the growth in fee income is coming from.

[lbo] 03/2/2009 22:57

Best to ignore the cheerleaders for the property sector

[the diddymen] 21/1/2009 18:59

Jock

I suspect that foreign buyers are not piling in yet because with the UK's 'strong pound ' policy there is a chance of significant further discounting. I am assuming that there might be an increase in activity in Spring 2010.

CR

We will find out on 11 March, but my feeling is that SVS are going to have to finance significant losses in 2009, and there must be a risk that they need to raise more capital. I note the movement in the graph, but what I do not understand is why the direction of travel over a period in which they have issued 2 profits warnings. (I will look at consensus forecasts to see if the third bus is on its way!)

For the avoidance of doubt I am short in this stock

TD

[cockneyrebel] 21/1/2009 18:51

Fair enough but I think the market will disount the recovery very early as far as the shares go.


SVS and all the housebuilders bottomed last July and have been rising since. Valuing the builders on PE ratios is pointless and on assets. What's really happening, imo, is that lots of small builders and guys that might have borrowed the money against their house and bought a plot to build their own house are now either bust or can't borrow the money. The big builders are running down their inventories and selling just the completed houses or near completed, they are not starting new ones. This means that when the buying does start again, demand will rapidly outstrip supply.

The UK is uniquely placed here. We are very affected by rate changes where so much of the population have large mortgages. Recent rate cuts have reduced the interest on a £150K mortgage by £5250 or £437 a month. Add in the fall in food prices and petrol and that's putting £500 a month into the pocket of some families.

£150K is the average price of a house today.

"The results of the 2008 ASHE show that median weekly pay for full-time employees in the UK grew by 4.6 per cent in the year to April 2008 to reach £479. Median earnings of full-time male employees was £521 per week in April 2008; for women the median was £412." Office of National Statistics.

£27K a year average male with a £21.5K average female wage = £48.5K.

A 20% deposit on a £150K house is £30K. That leaves a mortgage of £120K to pay.

A bank will lend you 3 times a single wage or 2.5 x joint wage.

2.5 x joint average wage is £121K.

By my calculations the average couple with an average wage can buy an average house with a 20% deposit down.



Buying could be a lot more affordable than renting and with the gov pumping in £100m into the banks to increase mortgages things have probably bottomed imo.

Of course I could be wrong just asthe doomsayers could be too but we are a nation of property fanatics.

CR

[jockthescot] 21/1/2009 17:41

CR - working in the industry, I can assure you that foreign buyers are not "piling in" although I take on board your point that they might at some point.
Banks are NOT lending, and this is affecting commercial loan terms as well as residential mortgages.

Spring is on its way, but I would be waiting until next Spring until any form of start to any recovery.

This sector is SO relient on bank lending - much more than many believe IMO.



Jock

[cockneyrebel] 21/1/2009 12:55

Bought back in today - chart turning up.

I hear commercial property sales are stronger than expected since new year.

Also the average house in london now off 20% and with the £ fall it means prices have halved for foreign buyers - they are piling into London at this level and if the £ goes lower we'll see more of them.

Estate agewnt advertising increasing around here. Rigntmove says there's more houses coming onto the market and I'm hearing the demand for HIPs has soared recently.

Spring is on its way - we are a nation of house-obcessed property lovers even in this climate.

The gov's £50bn boost to banks to increase mortgage lending announced this week can only help too imo.

CR