Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[upwego] 30/1/2024 03:29

Good to see you posting again MT - Hope your recovering well. :)

[mount teide] 29/1/2024 22:58

Oil pipeline in Sudan safe despite increased military activities: South Sudanese official - Sudan Tribune today

'South Sudan’s Undersecretary for the Ministry of Petroleum, William Anyak Deng, has assured the public that the country’s oil export infrastructure in Sudan is safe and secure, despite recent reports of increased military activity in the region.

Deng, speaking to reporters on Wednesday, reiterated that oil production has not been interrupted since the conflict in Sudan erupted in April 2023. He attributed this to the continued implementation of robust security measures and protocols.

However, he acknowledged the concerns raised by observers about the potential impact of ongoing military operations on oil production and infrastructure. He emphasized the need for all parties involved to prioritize the safety of oil workers and facilities.

Industry officials and workers in the field have expressed concerns about the rising security threats in western Kordofan, highlighting the potential impact on production costs and the safety of workers. They urged the government to take proactive measures to safeguard oil production and infrastructure.

A production expert, speaking to Sudan Tribune, emphasised that the ongoing conflict in Sudan poses a significant threat to the industry, not only in terms of security but also due to the uncertainty it creates for workers and their families.'

[gisjob2] 29/1/2024 22:56

HG, agree entirely!

[highly geared] 29/1/2024 22:37

SAVE stated back in June their intention to publish the admission document for SS by 30 September. If , 5 months on, they still aren’t in a position to publish the AD , you have to question what the hell is going on…

[thommie] 29/1/2024 21:51

Well. We had so much bad luck the last years, maybe it's time to have some positive news this time. We all took the risk, because we felt the potential if those deals can be closed. It sounds completely off the orbit to think of the business if SS would be completed in the end. A business with so much production and so much revenue but very little debt... It's obvious, that the share price would finally go into orbit as well in that case. It wouldnt be just that outlook, to be a near 100 000 boepd producer that will be debt free in 1,5-2 years time but also the proof of concept, that will enable more such deals on such a base! If it fails we would be looking at a 50% fall in share price in my opinion in the short term, rising above it in the longterm again in the years to come just on the back of the accugas business and the possible ICC awards relating to chad. So whatever happens, Im sure andrew gave and is still giving his best to make it work...

[kinkell] 29/1/2024 21:28

I agree about the attraction of an oil deal in principle in Nigeria but it is not an easy country to transact in. It will need to be selected with great care. I suggest our CEO is unlikely to disappoint when it comes to selection and negotiation,

[rockyride] 29/1/2024 21:25

I know AK says small deals come with as much hassle as large ones so he only does the large ones. But should SS fail it will be a crying shame that we will not have benefited from reasonably high oil prices (on average) over the last 2 years plus.Yes, granted we may see some upside from strong oil prices from awards in regard to the ICC Chad Doba cases.These big deals are great if they come off but do we have enough egos in the basket. Don't call me Captain hindsight as I've always said that the SS deal risk profile is too high for my liking. I'd far prefer for our board to take on more hassle with a spread risk profile of 5 x 10k deals instead of 1 x 50k deal. We could well have landed 2 or 3 of those and we would be flying now.Obviously, I hope SS closes and we will all be very happy. however, should it fail, I'll be making my little noises to say SAVE need to take on smaller deals than these huge deals. I guess $1.25bn headline price of Petronas SS deal is heavily discounted but would be worth closer to $2bn in-discounted. At the time of suspension, our market can was around $413m and personally I think it's crazy to buying a company business 5 x the value of ours. How often do you see that happen successfully in any sector.Anyway, let's see what the next RNS says when we see it on Wednesday or Thursday.Good luck to all and fingers crossed we get good news on something soon. For now, where is the bloody Accugas debt re-finance that we are continually told will happen soon.

[gisjob2] 29/1/2024 21:08

I'd have been much happier if AK had found a new asset in Nigeria to grow the company, rather than Chad or SS.

[mount teide] 29/1/2024 21:01

kin - Good post!

[kinkell] 29/1/2024 16:07

Well, Accugas is a resounding success, but took a very long time to resolve - but on very favourable terms.

Niger has suffered from an unforseen setback, but has enormous potential, hopefully about to progress.

Cameroon if retained is very lucrative.

Chad is an enormous disappointment but seems likely to generate a substantial compensation with very little investment or risk on account of the structure of the deal.

South Sudan remains to be seen.

It sounds as if there is at least one more deal in the pipeline.

The debt refinancing delay is disappointing but fully understanable in view of the currency realignment and if the economy is continuing to grow should be resolved in future.

Cheer up everybody we are still in the game!

[gisjob2] 29/1/2024 15:35

As we're being led right up to month end without any news I assume we're either in for yet another extension or South Sudan isn't going to happen and the share will be readmitted for trading with all the negatives associated with that.

If either of these are the case AK needs to stop chasing rainbows and concentrate on his day job. This elephant hunting in Chad and South Sudan has been a disaster so far. Still no news on refinancing either, I'm sick of this share. It gives an illusion of being a stock market share yet is permanently suspended and impossible to trade.
All these fancy deals take an eternity to try and resolve and so far no success of any note, just negatives like the Chad debacle.

[1madmarky] 29/1/2024 05:19

I'm expecting another extension.
Maybe news on debt restructuring.
Certainly words to the effect of "continuing the various work streams "
This investing lark is never dull!

[upwego] 28/1/2024 08:59

Gonna be interesting to see what the news is this week.

I`m expecting the worst news so anything good would make me happy :)

Ha ha

[buffythebuffoon] 27/1/2024 15:55

Charlie Munger would not invest in companies like this!

EDIT When he was alive.

Buffy

[kinkell] 27/1/2024 15:30

Lets not forget Charlie Munger's view that patience is the key to long term investment success.

[napoleon 14th] 27/1/2024 11:37

Same here.
All this hoopla deserves to be put into a quoted subsidiary - suspended for years -
and the real gas business return to a normal status with a quote and not suspended.

[tens machine] 26/1/2024 10:09

I would be surprised for us not to get a extension of suspension today Save is Beginning to grind my gears

[thommie] 23/1/2024 21:59

Thats why I struggle to believe that creditors are the ones that are holding up the financing. This 30m/month are as well very conservative if you take into account the oil price throughout 23/24 of ca 100$\bbl in average and that AI thinks the net production at the start of 2022 was 75 000 bopd, although it might be more near our used 50 000 bopd number today, the real average over this 25months should be higher as well. If there are some deffered payments included into the 1250b$ number - lets say 150-200m then even at this conservative assumptions we would look at only 300-350m$ outstanding payment if it would close now much lower ofc if the real numbers are better. Although I doubt save is really partnering with Vitol in this (ofc, the risk of losing 300-350m$ for Vitol wouldnt be sth they would be concerned about) but we didnt get the debt from them when we tried to buy chad, wasnt it from somewhere in asia?The most positive sign for me in recent days was that komakino said he knows somebody that works in SS that met with people from SAVE at work.I really pray they get this deal over the line I had too much bad luck with my investments in the last 1,5 years, I am in no need for another failure... :(

[zengas] 23/1/2024 12:59

On reflection it could be unlikely that SAVE would have needed to advertise for staff as these are in place at the JVs between ONGC, CNPC, Petronas unless some decided to leave or move on.

That seems to be the case from the old AI article back on 18-1-22

'Vitol aims for grand slam with Savannah

The success of the two operations in Chad, which are still subject to the approval of the oil and finance ministries, is however only one step in an even more ambitious plan by the Savannah-Vitol duo. Savannah is also looking with great interest at Petronas shares for sale in South Sudan. The British junior informed Petronas of this during the negotiations in Chad. The assets represent some 75,000 bpd for Petronas, with reserves of 300m barrels.
Vitol could also help Savannah financially in exchange for marketing South Sudanese crude.
That would be made easier by the fact that most of Petronas's assets in South Sudan are managed by joint ventures with China's CNPC, which are staffed locally and thus would require the partners to supply little labour. '

The date of the article imo could infer a start date of the transaction as 1/1/22 and now a full 25 months past whch at $30m/month imo could have knocked $750m off the settlement price by now and perhaps some of the balance is attached to a greater oil price and/or production milestones.

[porschefund] 22/1/2024 15:58

Prior to the FY2022 update that appeared to have been rushed out before the year end, the annual Trading Update was released in the last week of January:
FY2020 Trading Update issued 25th January 2021 , FY2021 Trading Update issued 24th January 2022.
Will we see a FY2023 Trading Update in the next few days?

[interzone] 22/1/2024 15:33

No worries Porsche, back to counting the days to Feb again :-)

[porschefund] 22/1/2024 15:26

SAVE has put the following on its website:

HOAX JOB OFFERS

We are aware that a website is falsely purporting to offer jobs from Savannah Energy relating to positions in South Sudan. This website is NOT affiliated in any way with Savannah Energy.

Please be aware that genuine employment opportunities at Savannah Energy are ONLY accessible via the careers page of our website: Careers – Savannah Energy (savannah-energy.com)

Sorry to have raised your hopes!

[affc21] 22/1/2024 15:21

Well, my son ain't half going to be disappointed on his future inheritance now...lol

[interzone] 22/1/2024 15:09

Crikey - scary that anyone would even want to do that!! Oh well, I'm blaming Porsche for not doing their due diligence checks properly, lol :-)

Hopefully AK will brighten things up on the 1st!

[rockyride] 22/1/2024 14:41

Jobs x 11 - They are spam and I think Savannah may put something on their WEB site quite soon. AK is in SS and working as hard as ever.