hxxps://thewhistler.ng/accugas-denies-responsibility-over-power-outage-in-akwa-ibom/amp/
borrowed from the other thread. |
Thanks Captain James T Kirk, for the record no apology has ever been received publicly or privately. To quote Pope “to err is human, to forgive divine”. I didn’t expect an apology and for me it’s water under the bridge but RR’s refusal to retract his libellous accusations about Zengas is in my opinion the measure of the man. |
More good news on the nigeria oil production side of things
Eventually this sort of progress must be reflected in the value of the currency. At which point we might even make an FX profit.... yeah I know I'll wash my mouth out with soap and water...😬 |
Never worry who ‘plugs’ it RR “paid or not” as you still allege and have never withdrawn. You were happy to ring all and sundry at the company/PR as if you had somehow gotten more insight than anyone else to post to the bbs when there was nothing new to be gleaned that wasn’t in the public domain. Perhaps you made it up as you went along ? As you say - wind your neck in. At least by the time it comes back you might have grown up by then. |
Continued progress in nigeria
hxxps://www.arise.tv/nnpc-ends-decades-of-petroleum-importation-partners-with-dangote-refinery-for-local-supply/ |
It's not that many months ago that you were one of them. Unpaid of course.
By the way, talking of not many months ago, you still owe a public apology to porschefund. I wonder if you issued it privately ?
To jog your memory, it was when you were unable to correctly read an rns and subsequently made the accusation that it had been altered.
Chameleon style attention seekers are never a good look. |
UNBELIEVABLE how so many posters (paid or not) keep plugging this company. The proof will be in the relist price. AK has had 2 years to add value to the share price Suspended price 26p and let's see what we relist at, not what the share price may be in another few years time. |
Don’t worry RR, we’ll still be suspended. |
20First power estimated to be 2031/32 - whoop whoop |
An award of 40p per share seems reasonable to me |
 Pldazzle your guess is as good as mine and are they all or some of them ? On the Petronas asset deal, i can only wait to see what's presented for shareholder approval to make that decision whether i'd like it or not (if it gets that far).
Niger - Only have the present regimes statement that contracts etc with investors will be honoured. Last valuation for the assets was $153m. I don't doubt that there is anti western sentiment but if you read up on the present situation the juntas in all 3 countries have lost major support and matters now seen worse under their rule after the initial and early support for throwing out western military etc.
Chad - just wonder why you assess it at between 5-10p which would be $85m to $170m at current exc rates versus $1220m claimed.
If as recognised the assets were ours - then we have to start with their valuation to us.
The oil field assets were $245.4m.
The pipeline $288.3m.
Total $533.7m
There was a 9 year baseline return at $60/b oil of an average $39.1m/yr = $351.9m.
There was a 9 year baseline return from the pipeline of an average $37.4m/yr = $336.6m.
That's from the relisting document presentation in 2022. Add all the above and you get $1222m - the same figure that SAVE is now claiming.
We will need to see what or if the capitalistion rate is/used on the expected profits over a recognised timeline the company would have expected to make and/or the discounted future earnings method.
I personally expect close to the individual valuations for the oil fields and pipeline interests as two seperate asset entities = $533m which would make up the bulk of the claim as how far down can it really be discounted if one thinks about it carefully.
Rather than 9 - perhaps 2.25 years miminum of the expected baseline yearly returns or $172m.
Maybe as high as $700m which would be significantly ahead (if awarded) of my hoped for 25-33% of the overall $1220m figure.
That's how i arrive at it from the info available and trawling through many other claims online.
I'd expect an interest rate award to be applied to hinder and penalise the longer it goes unpaid.
Ways and means to recover it and there's always a potential sale as discussed before on here.
With that looming, there's always a chance that it may not go the full distance given Chads acknowledgement and saves willingness to discuss with them.
If anyone else wants to have a stab at the compensation case - by all means but those figures appear to match the 2022 presentation and i can't see how the pipeline and oil fields could be materially undervalued from those 2 individual asset figures. Yes i beleive the 9 year expected baseline return figures could be materially reduced but then we've also had oil at nearly $75-$80+ this past 2 years.
We saw how Save turned a $1m investment into a $16m loan with $4m recovered at Fenikso/Lekoil so i would expect them to be equally determined to get maximum fair value for the damage it did to us in throwing us off course not to mention shareholder sentiment with PIs especially. |
zengas - Your posts are always stimulating and interesting, but on the 'agree to differ' issue - if the SS govt. really are the bunch of crooks as described by MT, and I have no reason to think otherwise, then, given that on the one hand and the Sudan situation on the other, I can't for the life of me see what attractions there are for SAVE in seeking to pursue this. Looks like a dead duck at the expense of an ever-prolonged market suspension.
Then there's Niger. The music these days seems to be on the lines that there is something in it for SAVE after all. But the noises from official Niger sources appear to suggest ongoing hostility to the western world in general. So yet another dead duck in the making?
Lastly, Chad compensation - my bet, for what it's worth, is between 5p and 10p per share. And if awarded, how long before we get paid (if at all)?! |
If AK eventually remembers we're supposed to be a listed company one day, then I'll be selling a large part if not all my holding unless we're approaching the Chad arbitration settlement, in which case I'll probably wait for the outcome.
I used to have confidence in AK but no more. South Sudan is a basket case and I don't understand why he's so obsessed with it. It was never the answer after the Chad Acquisition was re-nationalised.
I also think he's taken his eye of the ball regarding Niger & the refinancing where he's missed many of his self-imposed deadlines and changed his own project development plans without even informing shareholders. I can't believe he could have met any of his KPI's for the last 2 years.
His treatment of shareholders is abysmal. |
I didn't think it was legally possible to suspend a share for two years. I just want out of this now. No deal can possibly take to years to complete. This is ridiculous. |
Chad have 'acknowledged' Saves entitlement to compensation - as to how much we don't know. 67p worth claimed approx - i hope its north of 20p net. If we get it, it will be worth it imo.
Governments across Africa do and have done this even countries we view as stable having asset disputes, even Europe. Chevron were once fined/expelled from Chad and returned.
It's all down to the nature of the deal in doing any business. I can't judge it and won't until anything is presented in black and white.
Because the Govt hit Petronas with those costs doesn't mean it shafted Save. There was no deal singed so perfectly possible for S.Sudan to consider alternatives (imo).
Again, how does the Petronas issue affect how the other companies in country now view S.Sudan going forward with their investment decisions. Surely left uneasy and warrants clarification for them.
(Is RR/Sunbed/Agadem still unable to man-up or is he drying out his pants since 12:26 ) |
Like a lot of countries, a despot country unable to attract inward investment. But a lot of African leaders are short sighted and don't give a monkeys about their country and their peoples. It hasn't stopped Chad behaving this way.
Like I mentioned, the intent was there for the SS Government to pull the rug on the SAVE-Petronas deal for there own benefit. Whether it happened, the intent was there for the Government to shaft SAVE. Why would AK dream of doing business with Governments like this, especially after the Chad debacle. |
Well if Caltech were going to come up with that kind of cash id say fair dos' no deal signed as such so why not.
Hasn't happened and that's not to say there's similar going on in the process.
We'd have to deal with the Govt as the other companies there.
The others could take the view are we going to be hit with high unfair costs like Petronas and chase us away from making further investment or even staying (ie ONGC, CNPC and the others ). Where does that leave S.Sudan if it misjudges the situation on its actions. |
And what about the Government seeking Caltech cash to undermine the deal and acquire it themselves. Granted it didn't come off but the intent was there and this is the Government SAVE would be dealing with on a day to day basis.
Not for me. |
Yes we can agree to disagree.
My point is there was no deal until the government got what it wanted from Petronas ie increased costs (clean up/environment charges etc).
That doesn't mean there was no support for SAVE as a company. They could well have supported SAVE if Petronas had forked out $??? millions on these cost demands.
Petronas weren't paying so how could the govt support a deal if they wanted more cash from Petronas with Petronas not caving in and then handing the assets back on 9th Aug still leaving the govt to try and raise cash with the new found position it was in.
That's why i see SAVE as still having support to bid/make a deal proposal otherwise why would they still be there.
(Come on RR man up - withdraw your comment or is anyone here potentially liable to become a target for a similar allegation over time ?) |
We disagree on how much support SAVE have from the Government.
I believe they have very little due to no minister whatsoever posting any sort of support for SAVE's acquisition of the project over the 2 years and the Government seeking US funding from Caltech to acquire the projects themselves, trying to pull the rug from under the SAVE-Petronas deal when it was still live. They've demonstrated their true intentions.
I've seen no counter proof of any positive comments, decision or actions by the Government to support SAVE
I believe there's no chance of AK getting a decent deal in South Sudan and would be happier if that is the result. I just wish he'd stop wasting his time there.
As far as I'm concerned any deal there is a bad deal.
Even AK managed to get something in SS, recent history has shown he could never move it on in the future without yet another arbitration where the Government try to milk the company. A 'Hotel California' situation. |
No i don't think it's down to SAVE not having support from the govt. It's the new situation since Aug 9th.
They are likely in a process. Saves deal is possibly presented as other deals in the ring. It's what's the best deal for the Govt ? Save can only go so far as to the best deal as to what AK could put to shareholders as acceptable to a majority. Has he the ears of the IIs (ie top 20 shareholders who hold 80% supposedly) as to what deal he can hope to win. He's not stupid but as PIs in the dark we're the last to know other than being possible insiders to it which is impossible ???
The govt mighn't have wanted them to go but that's the reality, they were going and now they're gone despite any deemed unfair tactics to get more out of Petronas and their determination to go anyway (as they have now done).
In effect Petronas is saying we've done all we can do - so do what you now like with the assets as we've handed them back, we're not staying as advised but recompense will be sought via arbitration. |
'I think the issue was between what the Govt wanted from Petronas - and not to do with Save'.
There's no foundation to that comment other than the Government didn't want Petronas to go. This was mentioned in the press at the time.
Now the Government has the assets, the effective date of the deal with Petronas has expired meaning the project is less appealing financially if on the same terms. The Government would be unlikely to give it away cheap if they're aware Petronas will take them to arbitration. |
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