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Sat Sol Share Discussion Threads
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|I see in the FT this morning that a slimmed-down Digital Economy Bill is being rushed through Parliament. I find the article quite confusing (and badly written). It sounds as if the "universal service obligation" of 10Mbps and 2020 deadline have been dropped for the time being - but then says that "....Openreach ....can formally start planning to raise speeds in the most rural parts of the country.".Any anyone can add more interpretation?Is satellite going to be part of the Openreach solution in ultra-rural areas?A confused tightfist|
|SAT AGM tomorrow, maybe Numis' note will coincide - just a thought. I am looking forward to some news soon on continued expansion plans (and funding) beyond 2017. Maybe that is what is holding the share price back? We are now back to what looks close to support, IMO, especially after the intraday bounce on 21st April.Cheers, tightfist|
|Added more this afternoon|
|Interesting confirmation of support on high volume today. Wait and see where SAT closes!|
|Looks like a good deal - it surely takes SAT up the value chain as a serious telecom co.|
|anyone know if Numis's note is out yet? was supposed to be out 7-10 days after results.|
|Keep hoping ...|
|hoping to buy when it dips to under 7p|
|A25.On the chart there are the makings of a nice upward channel.....|
|Imho, this is about to start quite a run up before the summer break.|
|looking to add to my position here|
|Results were out 10 days , should be included.|
|I wonder if the results were out in time for a mention in SCSW tomorrow? I'd have thought so...|
|you may be right in 16p but if an offer comes in a lot more, interesting company.|
|I bought a few of these SAT ...i dont know the company well ..but i like the space its involved in .. its potential is massive ...if they get it right ...i am following a friend who knows it well .. he thinks 16p for patient people ..|
|haus,A good point; it was mentioned that the Fixed Wireless technology acquired with Breiband is attractive in some communities/regions beyond Norway. It is faster and more resilient, and will remain so.|
|Thanks Tightfist - very useful insights and appreciate the time you put in here to report back. Onwards and upwards for patient investors. This has the potential to be a hugely cash generative and profitable business.
|Just speculation, but I think we may see new business/acquisitions in the fixed wireless area (which we gained a expertise in with our Breiband purchase). It meets the same goals of last-mile rural broadband but in a different way - aimed more at communities than individual properties.
A friend just had a fixed wireless installation and can't speak highly enough of it, he's in an area of Monmouthshire where all the houses have the option of coverage from this same company, not sure if that has been facilitated by the council, will have to investigate further.|
|Thanks tightfist well worth the wait. Looks like we can expect another batch of acquisitions before long. If they can manage a few more like Skymesh and Avonline this will take off.
|Apologies for my tardiness in getting this out; summarising last Wednesday is a bit of a challenge but here goes - I hope this adds to the excellent "Johns" article linked above:
The CEO was keen to get Monday’s delay saga out of the way, so I will too. Basically the new ("bigger, better") advisers (Numis) have a more protracted review process than formerly (Arden) and the CEO 'fessed that he has was not aware and had not allowed for that - hence the delay in release.
The team of CEO (Walwyn), CTO (Clifton), CFO (Waters) and CCO (Brian Southward) presented; they were extremely well prepared and very joined-up.
Naturally this topic was omnipresent but led by Southward. Two strands – Market Entry, Consolidation. SAT claim to be globally the only cross-border Satellite Broadband operation, currently in 31 countries and billing in 9 currencies. Now have hubs in five countries, expressed as part of their expansion template.
Considerable emphasis on the upfront processes (14 completed in 22 months, “quite a few rejected”) and the value-add from retained management. They are networking extensively and now being approached by would-be vendors.
Financial criteria include max 4x EBITDA multiple (before operational leverage upside). Three acquisitions post year-end EBITDA multiple is 3.75x.
Customers: Numbers now stand at 85,000 Churn has dropped from annual 19.7% to 15.7% , expected to stabilise at 1%pm. 28% of churn was due to fibre installation (reducing), 32% due to property moves.
Demand: Government funding schemes are gaining traction (lately even in the UK!) and especially in Oz. Overpowering politics of the “digital divide”.
Like-for-Like Organic sales growth running at 12%
Marketing spend is minimised; targeted mail shots in immediate vicinity of new customers
SAT premise is that typical family data demands will continue to grow aggressively and justify flat ARPU, whilst costs fall with next generation satellites from 2020. 2016 ARPU was £42.14, target is £500 (£41.66).
Distribution channel and scale effects within satellite supplier negotiations projected to continue improving Gross Margin.
Resellers were 50% of sales, now only 23% and increasing margin capture.
Gross Margin increased from 24.4% to 34.0% and projected to continue strengthening as satellite unit data costs are renegotiated (eg the recent SES deal).
Management IS: 19 KPI’s used for monitoring. Operating Cash Flow was positive £640k; used to pay-down satellite suppliers early and improve credit terms.
Group headcount 176; 35 of whom are in Sales
CFO is not a fan of Intangibles; intends writing-off ASAP, limited to two years.
Cash conversion: Projected to be 100% of EBITDA
Continues to be a very asset-light business
BoD and Management hold ~25% of equity
One thing not talked about was growth beyond the 100k target. However the RNS statement “… the scope for growth is beyond what we originally imagined….R21; and “I believe 2017 will be another transformational year…” combined with their focus on the Acquistion process and an extensive pipeline of potential deals provides some clues.
One example is Oz. where government satellites have capacity for 400k and SAT (as second player?) have only 29k but already growing organically at 1+k pm.
Greenfield opportunities? New satellites have three year lead time; implied interest in Spain, Italy, Germany and NZ
|yep, great link hausofmaus. Thanks|
|Covered by St in It today|
|Very helpful. Thanks for that link Hausofmaus.
I've been invested here since the outset , and would never consider this BOD arrogant. Great guys , knowing their business inside out and delivering on ever promise . They've put their dough in at every placing for acquisitions . Shame about the other day but these things happen when small companies grow. All will be forgotten about and be back to 10p soon.|
|There is a nice summary of Wednesday evening's event here: