Sainsbury (j) Share Discussion Threads

[investor2019] 01/4/2020 20:29

....dont forget the experts said bond yields could not trade below zero

[investor2019] 01/4/2020 20:28

apparently the oil price is heading sub-zero. so much of it around, no where to store it.

[spob] 01/4/2020 19:40

It's human nature to assume that a sudden change will now become the new normal
when in reality nothing could be further from the truth


We had a few bad hurricane seasons close together a while back in the US
people assumed that was the new normal

it wasn't


We had an oil price well over 100 dollars a barrel a few years back
experts said oil will never go below 100 again

the oil price went down to around 30
experts said the oil price will stay low

the oil price went back up again
experts then said it can never go that low again

the oil price went below 20 this week


who needs experts

[spob] 01/4/2020 19:19

the beneficial effect from Chinese flu is temporary

a few months at most


there won't be a pandemic next year

and probably won't be one again for the rest of your life


that's why this pandemic makes no difference whatsoever to the valuation of any of the companies that I follow

okay some busineses will suffer from consumer confidence for a few years (eg cruise line operators) but that will soon recover (people have short memories)

[the oak tree] 01/4/2020 19:07

Sainsbury and arguably the rest of the supermarkets have been overlooked as an investment. Here's why:

1. While there has been upfront demand for items like toilet rolls etc which will result in fewer purchases later in the year, the main driver to increased profits for this year will be from taking the money that would have been spent in other establishments such as Greggs, Costa, restaurants, schools, Uni etc and it being spent in Sainsbury. Thats not happened before. Like most establihments this company has fixed costs it has to incur so this increase in turnover will show a much increased profit.

2. Supermarkets are normally in a competitive struggle with each other. The last few weeks and arguable the next month or two has put that on the back shelf. Its mostly not about price it's about being able to buy XYZ for a family or individual. People don't Q round the block only to walk out the store without a purchase because prices have gone up a bit or more likley there are less offers. Sainsbury margin vary but is about the 2% mark. Getting it to 3% might not sound much but thats actually increased your profits by 50%. Thats huge in this industry.

3. They will have increased costs such as overtime for staff, more delivery trucks, 10% bonus for staff but don't miss the big picture. Its driven by demand and will be well compensated for in revenue.

3. As per the Government announcement there is no Business Rates to incur for the next 12 months. As per the company RNS this amounts to a savings of £500k+. In a normal average year that would mean on its own profits would double. FY2020 net profit forecast is £451k.

4. People will be staying at home rather than going on holiday. Again this increases demand. IMO people after a couple of weeks cooking meals at home and not eating out will start buying more upmarket items to cook with. Yes most will be worried about their jobs and won't want to spend too much but with few outgoings e.g. less fuel, less entertainment going to gigs, shows, cinema they will want to spend a bit more on the family meal at home. Those items in a supermarket like Sainsbury have much better margin.

So it's not just about more volume, it's the product mix plus increased prices on these products ie less offers for example, that I believe will probably lead to an outstanding trading update at the end of April when they release results for the last year.

Thats when they IMO get the re rating. Although it may happen when Tesco give their trading update next week.

So many companies have closed with zero revenue coming in. Here we have a company that people are Q to get into. Yet the share price has hardly moved.


IMHO....DYOR

[spob] 01/4/2020 15:52

one mans 'good' is another mans rubbish

hahahaha

[1savvyinvestor] 01/4/2020 08:36

Good shares being sold as well as bad. Silly sell off of Sainsbury

[ny boy] 31/3/2020 15:27

Spike to 225p, then sold off, doesn’t seem to be able to go on a sustained run..yet?

[rolo7] 31/3/2020 14:39

expensive legs of lamb and big joints of beef do people really have to money to by these 15-20£ each its no even a whole meal?!

[loganair] 31/3/2020 12:58

Aldi/Lidl now account for 14.3% market share with Aldi's market share now being only 1.8% less then Morrisons.

Alcohol sales up 67% due to the closure of pubs and restaurants.

[poikka] 31/3/2020 12:46

I suppose that a negative would be that shoppers are unlikely to have as much to spend.

[poikka] 31/3/2020 12:43

Maybe so, Tim, and that's what I was thinking, but then maybe folk will change their ways towards keeping a larger stock than they used to; so possibly just a return to normal trading, albeit larger shops and less often, initially at least, to avoid the risk of contagion?

Interestingly, most fund managers view Tesco as a better bet from what I've seen.

[tim 3] 31/3/2020 10:11

Things have really dropped off in the last week or so here many items including toilet rolls now in good supply locally.

Would expect next months figures to be much lower as people see shelves full again and use their stockpiles.

[poikka] 31/3/2020 10:03

Alliance "Lidl's 18% year-on-year rise was the largest of the lot. Lidl sales came in at GBP1.76 billion, nudging its market share up to 6.1% from 5.6% in the year prior.

Compatriot Aldi haf an 11% sales rise to GBP2.38 billion and its market share climbed to 8.2% from 8.0% in the year prior.

Among the "Big Four", J Sainsbury PLC booked the largest sales growth, rising 7.4% to GBP4.42 billion but its market share was stagnant at 15.3%.

Tesco PLC's market share fell to 26.8% from 27.3% despite sales rising 5.5% to GBP7.76 billion.

Walmart Inc's Asda had a 4.9% annual sales rise to GBP4.36 billion, but its market share slipped to 15.0% from 15.4%.

At Wm Morrison Supermarkets PLC, sales rose 4.6% year-on-year to GBP2.89, with market share down at 10.0% from 10.3%.

Of the London listed firms, online-only grocer Ocado PLC had the largest sales rise, up 13% to GBP432 million, and its market share edged up to 1.5% from 1.4%.

Iceland sales rose 12% to GBP632 million with market share up to 2.2% from 2.1% and at Waitrose, sales climbed 7.5% to GBP1.45 billion. The John Lewis Partnership's unit's share of the market was unchanged at 5.0%.

Finally, the Co-operative Group's grocery unit had a 9.4% sales hike to GBP1.80 billion and its market share climbed to 6.2% from 6.1%."

Kantar added: "Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to January 1, 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as sausages, oral analgesics and fresh bacon rashers."

Grocery inflation for the 12-week period was 0.9%.

McKevitt added: "We expect restrictions on movement and relatively full grocery cupboards will mean the incredibly high levels of shopping trips made in March will drop off over the coming weeks. Regular trips to smaller local stores are likely to continue, as people avoid travelling and queues at stores with one-in-one-out policies in place. Sales of long life and non-perishable items will slow as households work their way through stocks and consumers will focus on replenishing their supply of fresh foods."

"While much-reported panic buying has been concentrated to a relatively low number of individuals so far, we anticipate that this too will subside as consumers gain confidence in the retailers' abilities to maintain grocery supplies and keep stock on the shelves."

[spob] 26/3/2020 11:05

This is what Halfords is doing to protect its employees



Halfords Stores

CUSTOMER AND COLLEAGUE SAFETY NOTICE

We are currently open for business across a broad number of stores to support our communities in providing essential products and services. To protect our colleagues and customers we respectively ask that you observe the following guidelines:

Key Changes:

Customers for now will not be allowed into our stores, we will have a desk within our store entrances to transact and hand over products.

We will no longer be accepting cash payments for the foreseeable future- please have your card payment ready.

We are suspending some of our non-essential fitting services that take place inside the vehicle so we can prioritise vital car servicing to keep key workers moving.

Assisted sales including bike purchase, collections and repairs can only be carried out via a booked appointment.

Please maintain social distances of 2 metres at all times.

Please where possible use Home Delivery our Click & Collect service so we can have the product ready for you.


Obviously, we have also asked colleagues in the most vulnerable groups to stay at home and can confirm we will only continue to operate this service while we believe it is safe to do so for our colleagues and communities.

Our aim is to keep the key workers and businesses that are important to the COVID-19 response moving. Our teams play a critical role in keeping Britain’s vehicles on the road and safe to drive. Halfords is much more than a network of stores and garages. We provide fleet services to the British Transport Police, Border Control Agencies, the AA and several utilities providers including British Gas, SSE and EON. We’re also helping the key workers of Britain, the growing volunteer network and those of us making essential journeys, stay on the road with MOTs and vital motoring services.

If you have any further queries please go to our contact us page where our live chat agents will be available to help.

[whiskeyinthejar] 25/3/2020 22:33

Kantar says "accidental stockpilers" driving supermarket shelf shortages

“Ultimately we need to look at the empirical evidence and it tells us that temporary shortages are being caused by people adding just a few extra items and shopping more often – behaviour that consumers wouldn’t necessarily think of as stockpiling.

“People will also be eating in more as a result of social distancing and increased working from home. Consumers spend more than £4 billion each month on food and drink out of the home, a significant proportion of which will now be channelled through the supermarkets.”

“It’s not just how much people are buying but what. We’re seeing customers shop beyond their normal, regular product choice, putting pressure on supplies of items that aren’t usually bought as often. Purchasing typically made over a couple of weeks or longer is being concentrated into a few days."

[spob] 25/3/2020 11:52

bit hard to stockpile when the shelves are empty most of the day

[poikka] 24/3/2020 19:46

"Indeed, Lidl, Morrisons, Aldi, Iceland and Sainsbury's have all installed protective screens for staff, while Waitrose has ordered screens and visors for its workers.

You'll see staff wearing gloves and plenty of hand-sanitisers near tills and other areas."

[tim 3] 24/3/2020 18:58

Interesting.

.@Kantar research has found only a small number of people are engaging in what might traditionally be thought of as stockpiling. Meanwhile, many consumers are adding a few extra products each time they visit a store.

[jenniferzz] 24/3/2020 16:37

Waitrose

Introducing a marshal at the door limiting numbers inside
1 in and 1 out
Plexi glass on tills

That's a good start, get a grip SBRY for the good of all.

[tim 3] 24/3/2020 16:31

The next move will be temporarily closing some stores, we have about half a dozen in the city centre here and focusing labour and stock in larger shops/online imo.

[whiskeyinthejar] 24/3/2020 13:54

Yes I think so. Fat and irritated with kids/husband/wife etc. Unfortunately, staying at home is going to be bad for our wellbeing, especially as weeks go on. People will need booze, fast food and treats. And something to anaesthetise the kids.

[tim 3] 24/3/2020 13:37

So they'll basically get fat lol!

Seriously there is some truth in that people cant eat/drink out so treats have to come from the supermarket.

[whiskeyinthejar] 24/3/2020 13:35

I think people will eat and drink more because they are stuck at home. The baked beans were just in case they couldn't get to the shops, and as novelty wears off, the panic for toilet paper will shift to comfort food like ice cream. They'll shop less often, but buy more because they are bored and aren't eating out.