Saga Share Discussion Threads

[galeforce1] 05/7/2022 09:37

The update gets a thumbs-up from Stockopedia:

"...a reassuring trading update, with proper guidance this time (£35-50m underlying PBT - much improved from circa breakeven for last 2 years combined). Insurance division is set to become less profitable per policy, due to a decline in new business. Travel continuing to recover, with good forward bookings in cruise. Debt is fine, with long maturities, and loose covenants. For long-term investors, I think there's plenty to like here, and am encouraged by this update, as the plummeting share price made me wonder if bad news was on the way. Turnaround taking longer than expected though, but it is happening."

Institutional investors are still cautious for now, which is why the share price is flat. Hopefully they will begin to add over the next few months if there is a general market recovery in the autumn. I guess they don't like the fall-off in new business in the car insurance division and a possible write down in goodwill (which would be non-cash). Also there's no chance of a divi for at least a couple of years and the de Haan stake means that Saga is an unlikely bid target.

It seems tempting to sell the insurance division and for Saga to focus on travel. Perhaps this will happen one day. Or perhaps there's a good reason for not doing this.

[diku] 05/7/2022 08:54

That statement is full of glossary wordings...they have to counter act the negatives...

[diohohku] 05/7/2022 08:52

Poor old Dave on the ropes again! 😇

[diku] 05/7/2022 08:47

You mean they didn't make 100mln?...

[taddavies] 05/7/2022 08:36

Looks good and demonstrates that they are turning things around, especially now that cruise profits are kicking in.Disappointed that they are now saying holidays will be at a slight loss when previously they expected breakeven, also it looks like insurance is down more than I estimated. Debt is fine no issues there with liquidity or covenants, plenty of spare cash.Overall, despite the underlying profit being lower than I thought (why such a large range too!) it's still massively undervalued IMO, but at least the recovery has started.

[theaccountant2] 05/7/2022 08:18

Nope,A large amount of debt and no end in sight. This will go under a £1 in the coming days.

[coppers] 05/7/2022 08:11

The share price has fallen over 60% over the last year. Fair set of results now the share price drops again. I can only imagine what would of happened if the results were bad. I give up!

[0rient] 05/7/2022 07:24

Positive set of results with no nasty surprises. Back to growth..I reckon the recovery in the share price starts today & will eventually see us trading back over £5 within two years :-)

[scottish007] 04/7/2022 22:05

Saga 2023
As at 4th July 2022
Percentage sold from listing cabins currently unsold and subtracting from capacity of 999.

January
5th - 2nd Feb (Dis) - ?
12th - 31st Mar (Adv) - 231x2, 24x1 = 51.3%
Jan = 51.3% sold.

February
2nd - 18th Feb (Dis) - 207x2, 23x1 = 56.3%
18th - 5th Mar (Dis) - 201x2, 30x1 = 56.8%
Feb = 56.55% sold.

March
5th - 4th Apr (Dis) - 188x2, ?x1 = 62.4%
31st - 22nd Apr (Adv) - 171x2, 1x1 = 65.7%
Mar = 64.05% sold.

April
4th - 9th Apr (Dis) - 321x2, 62x1 = 29.5%
9th - 1st May (Dis) - 234x2, 27x1 = 50.5%
22nd - 7th May (Adv) - 221x2, 14 = 54.4
Apr = 44.8% sold.

May
1st - 6th May (Dis) - 331x2, 71x1 = 26.6%
6th - 21st May (Dis) - 322x2, 68x1 = 28.7%
21st - 4th Jun (Dis) - 337x2, 78x1 = 24.7%
7th - 14th May (Adv) - 304x2, 62x1 = 32.9%
14th - 26th May (Adv) - 251x2, 42x1 = 45.5%
26th - 5th Jun (Adv) - 122x2, ?x1 = 75.6%
May = 39% sold.

June
4th - 22nd Jun (Dis) - 194x2, 32x1 = 58%
22nd - 29th Jun (Dis) - 276x2, 34x1 = 41.3%
29th - 16th Jul (Dis) - 145x2, ?x1 = 71%
5th - 19th Jun (Adv) - 309x2, 69x1 = 31.2%
19th - 6th Jul (Adv) - 267x2, 41x1 = 42.4%
Jun = 48.78% sold

July
16th - 30th Jul (Dis) - 328x2, 76x1 = 26.7%
30th - 6th Aug (Dis) - 370x2, 74x1 = 18.5%
6th - 21st Jul (Adv) - 258x2, 44x1 = 43.9%
21st - 28th Jul (Adv) - 343x2, 89x1 = 22.4%
28th - 11th Aug (Adv) - 128x2, 1x1 = 74.3%
Jul = 37.2% sold.

August
6th - 20th Aug (Dis) - 299x2, 64x1 = 33.7%
20th - 4th Sep (Dis) - 252x2, 55x1 = 44%
11th - 21st Aug (Adv) - 200x2, ?x1 = 60%
21st - 28th Aug (Adv) - 293x2, 57x1 = 35.6%
28th - 11th Sep (Adv) - 349x2, 81x1 = 22%
Aug = 39% sold.

Jan - Aug avg.
51.3, 56.3, 56.8, 62.4, 65.7, 29.5, 50.5, 54.4, 26.6, 28.7, 24.7, 32.9, 45.5, 75.6, 58, 41.3, 71, 31.2, 42.4, 26.7, 18.5, 43.9, 22.4, 74.3, 33.7, 44, 60, 35.6, 22

1285.9 divide by 29 cruises
= 44.34% sold as at 4th July.
Can’t grumble at that ;-)

[diku] 04/7/2022 21:03

11p old money...

[tomtum1] 04/7/2022 19:44

What a dog

[fant1] 04/7/2022 18:35

Saga closing share price 166.90 minus 8.10 (gulp/wow) down 4.6%.🎏

[diohohku] 04/7/2022 11:12

The omens are not looking good on the Eve of an update, maybe the tide will turn? Sleepless night ahead for many? 😇

[taddavies] 01/7/2022 19:00

Next Tuesday there should be a trading update.

[fant1] 01/7/2022 18:00

Saga closing share price 175.00 minus 3.10 (WOW) down 1.7%. Is 150 coming? 🎏🎏

[diku] 01/7/2022 12:30

Think Sir Roger will buy this for a song in colloboration with another leisure/Private Equity...

[fant1] 30/6/2022 17:50

Saga closing share price 178.10 minus 6.10 (WOW) down 3.3%. 🎏

[diku] 30/6/2022 09:05

I had to look this up twice just in case something wrong with my glasses...does it say zero?...



In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo cut his price target on CCL stock and warned that another demand shock could send the shares to $0.

[fant1] 30/6/2022 08:57

Why Is Carnival (CCL) Stock Down 14% Today?
Joel Baglole 12 hrs ago
Comments
RELATED QUOTES
CCL-14.13%▼
Carnival (NYSE:CCL) stock is down 14% today after investment bank Morgan Stanley outlined a case against the cruise ship operator.
In a note to clients, Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo cut his price target on CCL stock and warned that another demand shock could send the shares to $0. That harsh assessment surprised investors, leading to a steep drop today. So far this year, Carnival’s share price has fallen more than 55% to just under $9 per share.

[fant1] 29/6/2022 18:10

Saga closing share price 184.20 minus 7.80 (WOW) down 4.06% 🎏

[scottish007] 29/6/2022 17:49

Morgan Stanley’s absolutely honking assessment of Carnival may be responsible for today’s kicking.

[taddavies] 29/6/2022 15:42

HiI posted : The market treats Saga as 100% travel company, which it?s not, so always read across, both positive and negative, hey ho.Note - "both positive and negative", so not when it suits.Why do you like Saga?Their fuel is hedged, but will see in results next month if good or not. Yes debt is high.

[hamhamham1] 29/6/2022 15:15

Don't get me wrong, I may buy back in here, did own and sold at minimal profit, debt and oil prices put me off (plus peeps cut back on big luxury spends in recession), but not against buying back in at some point, I like Saga.

[hamhamham1] 29/6/2022 15:13

When CCL us up, it's related, and when it's down, it's not?

TadDavies - 24 Jun 2022 - 14:50:03 - 21025 of 21043 Close Brothers bring SAGA to market - SAGA
Market likes the CCL Q2 numbers, share price +9% and still going up……some read across to here IMO