Saga Share Discussion Threads

[taddavies] 29/6/2022 13:50

CCL massive debt and zero diversification. Two years of virtually zero travel income and Saga still survived okay but clearly not sustainable if travel restrictions come back - very low probability IMO.The market treats Saga as 100% travel company, which it's not, so always read across, both positive and negative, hey ho.

[finkie] 29/6/2022 08:07

What is the current pe please and net debt? Adfn I don’t always trust

[norma_noog] 28/6/2022 18:11

Saga closing share price 192, up 1.40, plus 0.73%. Superb. Where is diohohku?🚗

[norma_noog] 27/6/2022 19:34

Saga closing share price 190.60, up 1.50, plus 0.79%. Superb🚗

[norma_noog] 26/6/2022 00:40

Of course it's superb if you bought at 120. Silly sausage😂

[ianian4] 24/6/2022 22:28

Fant 1. Good point well made, what flavour pot noodle tonight?

[fant1] 24/6/2022 18:45

Saga share price on Tuesday this week 208.20 today's closing price 189.10 down 19.10 on the week and thats superb, OMG.

[taddavies] 24/6/2022 18:23

galeforceAnytime, that's what these boards are all about, passing on views and facts to help us pi's.Some of the figures came from the presentation below so the numbers shouldn't be too far out.HTTPS://www.corporate.saga.co.uk/media/1519/saga-plc-2022-preliminary-results-presentation-vf-excl-ad-and-qa.pdf

[galeforce1] 24/6/2022 17:42

TadDavies - thanks for that. Those estimates for 2022/23 look v sensible. Cruise = £32m, travel = breakeven, insurance = £100m, central costs = -£55m, giving underlying pbt of £77m.
With a current market cap of only £255m SAGA has to be a strong buy at this level, and I'm continuing to add.

[norma_noog] 24/6/2022 17:37

diohohku160, Saga closing share price 189.10, up 6.10, plus 3.3%. Superb getting another top up yesterday. Not superb if you paid a fortune for CNA shares🚗

[taddavies] 24/6/2022 16:46

galeforceThe two cruise ships should be doing £32m underlying pbt (per ship: 40m EBITDA, less £10m D&A, less £8m finance, less £6m central overheads = £16m underlying pbt per ship).Insurance won't be £120m IMO as reserve releases will be reduced this FY, say £100m pbt, tour operations are forecast to be breakeven, then deduct central costs say £55m, so underlying pbt of £77m, tax @ 20% (last FY was 19%), gives net profit about £62m, that's 44p eps.The CFO slipped out at the last results presentation that they would be disappointed if less than 48p!.

[galeforce1] 24/6/2022 16:01

Does anyone have an estimated profit before tax for SAGA in 2022/23 (year end 31/1/23)?

In 2021/22 Insurance was +£120m, Travel was -£79m and central costs were -£50m.

In 2022/23 insurance profits and the central costs should be broadly similar, but travel should show a massive improvement.

Stockopedia is showing estimated revenues of £578m and estimated net profits of £36m. That would be OK, given that the market cap is only £250m-odd. But it might be a bit conservative.

[jetstar23] 24/6/2022 15:38

Absolutely, solid trading update this afternoon from Carnival. SAGA up 2% on that news alone. Onwards and Upwards.

[taddavies] 24/6/2022 14:50

Market likes the CCL Q2 numbers, share price +9% and still going up……some read across to here IMO.

[christmasworker] 24/6/2022 10:24

Has to hit 100

[diku] 24/6/2022 10:10

Post 21021...Saga was going down well before Covid hit town...did you miss that...

[diohohku] 24/6/2022 09:44

Dave you have posted 'have posted more than my norm' every post you have made is on the Saga BB!!!!!!! ( barring 3) which were synairgen...... but we know who bought them don't we 😇

[taddavies] 24/6/2022 09:41

lombrizIt is ironic I suppose, hitting its IPO price and yes the shares aren't doing well, but simply poor timing, buying the two cruise liners prior to a pandemic and the travel industry worldwide having to cease trading, hardly the BOD's fault.

[diohohku] 24/6/2022 09:32

Will the real Dave stand up! You're not fooling anyone, try as hard as you can, you have lost 50% of your investment deal with it.

[taddavies] 24/6/2022 09:26

HiReading your historic posts you seem to think every new poster is this "Dave" person. Don't know what grudge you have with this person but I'm not him, only have this account and don't post much. Have posted more than my norm here because it seems to have a lot of unwarranted attention from people that seem to have personal and company related issues, posting incorrect information about the company so I feel obliged to post the real facts.Don't understand your reasoning to post here but it's a free country I suppose. Filtered