Sabre Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[r9505571] 22/3/2024 10:18

Final dividend of UK£0.081 announcedShareholders will receive a dividend of UK£0.081.Ex-date: 25th April 2024Payment date: 5th June 2024Dividend yield will be 5.0%, which is about the same as the industry average.Sustainability & GrowthDividend is covered by both earnings (70% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (54% cash payout ratio).The dividend has decreased over the past 66 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments.EPS is expected to grow by 77% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover.

[martywidget] 22/3/2024 05:40

'RBC Capital Markets has lifted its target price for Sabre Insurance from 200p to 220p and reiterated an 'outperform' rating after the company's well-received annual results, hailing the company's ability to continue winning volumes profitably.
20 Mar, 2024 16:11
www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations-/broker-tips-sabre-insurance-close-brothers-elementis--16467774.html

[r9505571] 20/3/2024 18:52

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectationsFull year 2023 results:EPS: UK£0.073 (up from UK£0.041 in FY 2022).Revenue: UK£196.8m (up 23% from FY 2022).Net income: UK£18.1m (up 79% from FY 2022).Profit margin: 9.2% (up from 6.3% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue.Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 13%.Revenue is forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 25% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in the United Kingdom.Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 49% per year but the company's share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings.

[boozey] 20/3/2024 16:22

It has been a good couple of days here - on the road to recovery.

[r9505571] 19/3/2024 22:19

Price target increased by 7.2% to UK£1.81Up from UK£1.69, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts.New target price is 14% above last closing price of UK£1.59.Stock is up 50% over the past year.The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.064 for next year compared to UK£0.041 last year.

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 19/3/2024 07:22

Seem to be promising results. 🤞

[sam9092] 14/9/2023 16:47

WBA- you are correct in your assumptions. This was a legacy holding. Aviva continue still to be the biggest shareholder.

[wba1] 14/9/2023 16:38

Interesting about Aviva. I had not realised they were a major shareholder. It is an odd investment for them and I wonder if it is somehow linked to their previous ownership before they sold it to Keith Morris and Angus Ball about 20 years ago. If so they may just be catching up and cleaning up, as with their international holdings. Does anyone know?

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 14/9/2023 16:28

One person's sell is another's buy - clearly the buyer knows something - BUY NOW. 🤣

[sam9092] 14/9/2023 14:59

Now we know who sold Sabre shares yesterday. Their biggest shareholder AVIVA. Reduced from 9.98% to 8.85%. They clearly know something. SELL NOW.

[sam9092] 13/9/2023 22:10

That is a lot of shares traded today 2M. Somebody dumping alot of sabre shares. Do they know something we don't.

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 07/9/2023 08:50

Any thoughts on todays results from DLG? Seems to be about as bad as it can get yet the share price is up 15%

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 18/8/2023 17:49

Interesting that the price seems to pick up after 2.30?!

[wba1] 18/8/2023 09:15

All the points about various inflation drivers abating are fair but are peripheral to the real point. Sabre has been valued historically for producing a COR in the 70s, which is much better (by at least 20 points) than the market. The question is whether you think it can get back to that level (in which case a return to a share price from 200-300 is fair) or whether, like me, you cannot see how that will happen based on the current performance and the GWP growth drivers (in which case the current valuation looks generous, never mind a further increase). I would advise not getting too excited about second hand car values. Damages costs are less important than injury costs and write offs are only a part of damages. Ultimately an insurer value boils down to COR absent non-insurer assets such as rescue networks.

[mortimer7] 18/8/2023 08:56

Similarly, UK used car price increases have been pretty flat this year. Average increases of around 2% YTD to July, whereas the last 6 months of 2022 the average was 10% per month (Autotrader report). As a major contributor to claims inflation this surely must be good for Sabre (& all in the sector) particularly as I believe UK motor insurance premium inflation YoY is far higher than these %'s.

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 17/8/2023 15:25

I suggest the Shares were overbought during the lead up to the pandemic when it seemed inconceivable that interest rates would ever go up and then oversold when the profits evaporated due to inflation pushing up the cost of repairs and 2nd hand car values. Shares now worth a punt as premiums go up, inflation starting to decrease and insurance company's holding bonds as investments is looking good?

[wba1] 17/8/2023 09:16

I think that the share price recovery reflects an expectation that Sabre can return to its previous performance level over the next 2-3 years. I doubt this for a simple reason. Even assuming there are no more nasties lurking in the reserves it lost a significant amount of its legacy business as it hiked rates and is now relying on new business (rather than renewals) and new accounts for the likes of taxis, motorcycles and Saga to grow again. None of this is likely to return loss ratios to the 40s and CORs to the 70s (as they were up to 2020) and justify premium ratings. I can see that Sabre has stabilised and is performing satisfactorily but it now looks like a small, sub scale retail insurer with little to distinguish it from bigger competitors.

[sam9092] 17/8/2023 00:56

Excellent post by you. Sabre going up and up? Is there something I don't know?

[wba1] 03/8/2023 14:16

Interesting half year results. I remain deeply unconvinced by Sabre. The headline COR is flattered by the change in accounting practices and the real comparator with past years is the 98% undiscounted figure. Whether discounted under the new rules or undiscounted this years half year number is still worse than at 2022 half year. It seems to me that management is using the change in accounting to pretend that matters are better than they are. The undiscounted COR of 98% compares with the results in the mid-70s that Sabre were producing when a stand out performer and the accident year net loss ratio of 69% compares to figures in the 40s. Given the noises they made a year ago and at full year I would have expected to see more improvement by now. On the positive side, the motorcycle performance has improved faster than I expected (but taxis remains a black hole). The written account growth is interesting but will slow down recovery a little due to new business always performing worse than business already held - so it is swings and roundabouts with long term benefit but shorter term cost.
I do take the point that COR will benefit as the account grows as fixed and semi fixed costs are spread over more premium and the expense ratio reduces. I am also pleasantly surprised at the solvency ratio holding as well as it has.
My overall conclusion is that Sabre has a long way still to go to merit its premium share price compared to either other general insurers or the wider insurance market and the current price remains hard to justify. I may be wrong but this still seems to me to be one for gamblers.

[wba1] 03/5/2023 10:07

Sam9092; I am not an actuary but I was an underwriting director for 20 years. I knew Mike Edwards (the founder of MCE) and he was one of the better brokers but I agree with all you say about motorcycle and taxi. Like you I hold Aviva (and L&G and Phoenix) and bought down to 140 during the recent run on Direct Line, but Sabre (where I have made good money during the pandemic) just seems to be a different company to even 2-3 years ago. I will continue to watch it for any trading chances but it has long ceased to be a hold.

[wba1] 02/5/2023 18:07

Sam9092; whilst it is irritating to have missed a trading opportunity I think you will get other opportunities with Sabre and that less risk still exists elsewhere. I noted that the results predicted a COR for 2023 of 85-90%. I am prepared to go on record and predict it will exceed 90%. Why?

* The 2022 accident year loss ratio was 68.7%. This was 17% worse than the previous year and, even if they did take pricing action much will have been eroded by inflation and only part will earn in 2023 due to earnings patterns.

* Hardly any of the new taxi and motorcycle accounts will have contributed to the 2022 accident year loss ratio of 68.7%. Much more will impact 2023 and I doubt it will come in below 75-80% (for these new accounts)due to the nature of these risks, the lack of Sabre experience in these sectors and the penalty for transferred business.

* Other insurers are suggesting claims inflation is running ahead even of the scenarios suggested earlier.

Putting all this together I cannot see how the 2023 accident year loss ratio will be materially better than 2022 (before improving in 2024). So if it comes in at 68% with the usual 27% expense ratio the 2023 COR will only be below 90% if there is an unusually high prior year release (over 5%). And this seems unlikely given they had to strengthen reserves in 2022. I am sure they will pull every possible lever to bring down the reported COR but under 90% looks wildly optimistic.

[sam9092] 27/4/2023 08:42

Post sabres results this stock is moving up and up. Shame I didn't buy it when it was at one pound.