Sabre Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[wba1] 02/4/2023 09:39

Hopan; I think that either SBRE is overvalued or DLG undervalued. On balance I lean to the latter but that is just my view. I am convinced both valuations cannot be right. My main concern with SBRE is the likely continuing impact of the motorcycle and taxi accounts as they build to a full effect on profit through the earnings pattern. They will be a much bigger % of earned premium in 2023 than 2022 and I do not believe SBRE can expect them to produce a loss ratio anywhere near that of the traditional Sabre business. SBRE seems to be in transition to a COR much nearer to the market performance than its past 20 point advantage simply because of its pursuit of new business sources.

[hopan] 01/4/2023 00:06

Hi Wba1, thanks for the analysis. Just to clarify, you think SBRE is overvalued compared to the DLG, right?

I appreciate SBRE management on expecting the claim inflation. Well before the others. Good decision. And they ended up almost flat for 2022.

[sam9092] 29/3/2023 07:58

Thanks wba for assessment. I am Seriously thinking of investing heavily in sabre but currently reluctant.

[wba1] 25/3/2023 15:08

A simple question insurer investors should ask. Sabre is currently valued at about a third of the valuation of the Direct Line core retail business (£1bn of the £1.8bn DLG market cap is accounted for by the commercial operation (NIG) and the rescue and other personal lines business (plus some smaller stuff like the accident repair centres). The question is whether this seems reasonable. Sabre has annual GPW of £171m. DLG (for its core retail - motor and home) has £1.9bn. Both have recent history of underreserving and similar solvency ratios. If Sabre does recover even halfway to historic CORs it looks good but that is a big if. DLG has a worse COR but very valuable brands and the other lines to smooth the recovery.

To me there is a serious mismatch in valuations. I do not claim to know in detail where this arises, but until the interims it does make me more nervous about Sabre. Having said all of that - I received another invite for a telephone consult on motor this week (which I turned down) - but the list of companies they wanted to talk about had the usual suspects (DLG, Admiral plus some disruptors - and Sabre). It seemed odd that Sabre were in there but no LV, Aviva or others. Who knows?

[scobak] 24/3/2023 18:44

Because its gone down so bloody far.

[sam9092] 24/3/2023 14:32

Why is sabre going up? Any idea anyone?

[sam9092] 17/3/2023 22:18

Any reason why sabre is up when all other insurance stocks are down

[wba1] 14/3/2023 09:41

The results could be worse but no one should expect 2023 to be much better. The core historic business may be ok but taxi and motorcycle will continue to drag. Although the loss ratio may improve in motorcycle and taxi they will comprise a bigger % of the earned premium in 2023 as the transfer completes. This means a smaller gap between the loss ratios of the old business and the new accounts will be offset by it affecting more of the business. The surprising thing is that Sabre seem to be surprised by the performance of these new accounts, especially large losses in motorcycle. I have news for them; large losses are to be expected in motorcycle and loss ratios are bound to be poor in segments the underwriters are learning on the job.

I expect 2024 to be the first real improvement so there is a buying opportunity, but I expect the price to stay around the current level for a while yet.

[sam9092] 12/3/2023 19:29

Is this week going to be a good time to buy

[sam9092] 03/2/2023 09:40

A lot of movement going on with share price. Up 4 points down 4 points. Anyone know why so much movement on such a small volume of shares?

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 16/1/2023 09:44

last year came out 22/3

[sam9092] 16/1/2023 08:26

Anyone know when sabre results come out?

[spectoacc] 11/1/2023 08:53

DLG -28%, ADM -11%, even Aviva & LGEN are down on DLG's p/w.

[henryd14] 11/1/2023 08:52

Buying opportunity

[sam9092] 28/12/2022 16:06

Big drop today. Anyone know why?

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 07/11/2022 17:31

jonny - please enlighten us with your insight to make such a claim.

[jonnybig] 30/10/2022 11:27

The first sign of management incompetence tells you to avoid, and I'm afraid that's what the sbre management is ..... incompetent.

[hopan] 24/10/2022 21:37

Looks like someone is aggressively selling today. My estimation is someone sold around 400k shares into the market. Not a big amount but with overall negative sentiment it may possibly caused a higher impact. I can see one hedge fund is shorting about 0.80% of the float.

[mikesmythe] 24/10/2022 08:36

I love it when posters ask the most clueless idiot for advice LOL Hey wba1 - down another 4% today

[hopan] 23/10/2022 19:48

Hi wba1, what is your view on the current pricing level of 85p? And it is almost a straight line decline. Do you think there is an insider selling going on? £218mio market cap for this company is a bargain or value trap? Sorry a lot of questions. This company is looking more interesting for me at these levels.

[wba1] 23/10/2022 12:56

So no idea how reserving works eh Mike? I am afraid you have been found out. How about GLM's? How about capital requirements? How about Solvency 2 and possible changes after brexit? How about the issue of nominal versus achieved rate changes?

No answers? You can always recognise a plonker.

[mikesmythe] 23/10/2022 12:17

wba1 just like the team you support - you are a laughing stock