S & U Share Discussion Threads

[alfwilson] 14/5/2002 18:19

andysand

Do you also feel like the cat that got the cream ... let's hope your forcast proves to be accurate. I am happy in the knowledge that SUS is safe with great divi and has a history of pleasant surprises ... which have been very welcome over the 18 months that I have held them (bought at £3.20 on the 16 Nov 00).

Do you have any more that you want to share with us SUS fans?

My current holdings (Premier league) are CTO, GFRD, HDU, ROK, SLM and SUS.
My watch list (First Division) are PCF, HYWD nad PPH.
Watching from a distance (Second Division) are CCG, FBR, OKR, UNG, WBY and GSD.

Given your record with SUS any forcast / comment would be appreciated.

[tvsound] 14/5/2002 11:40

Flying again today!!!

[gzr] 13/5/2002 10:02

ING Barings have upgraded to eps of 58.2p this year and 64p next, Bell Lawrie goes for 58p and 63p. SCSW reiterates its buy recommendation at 590p, it reckons SUS are "dirt cheap".

[dave46] 08/5/2002 11:15

magazine tipped this in their March newsletter at 500 pence, could be a part reason for this months rise

Dave

[gzr] 08/5/2002 11:01

looking good today :o)

[greatbear] 07/5/2002 21:03

All,

The other factor that I didn't mention but is a postive reason to hold is the extremely generous divi. If you include this with the EPS growth (which I'm not sure if they do) this gives you a fair P/E rating of about 15.

GB.

PS does anyone know if this a valid when judging a fair P/E.

[andysand] 07/5/2002 09:48

greatbear,

it's easy to get used to these bear market ratings but I don't expect it to last with SUS. I'm pretty sure we'll get a prospective p/e of around 14 in the near future so I'm still sticking to my target of around 750-800p. There's no forcast from the house broker as yet but I'm betting it will be a lot better than the one we have at the moment. Can't work out how the analyst came to his conclusions based on what the chairman said in his last statement!

Andy

[gzr] 07/5/2002 08:45

Should be positive comment in SCSW this weekend.

[alfwilson] 07/5/2002 08:40

greatbear

I'm holding because I expect market to give it a fair rating ... still a ways to go in that respect.

[greatbear] 06/5/2002 22:40

I decided to pull out of S&U last week with a nice tidy profit. The reason I pulled out is that the rolling EPS is only about 9% and their rolling P/E is about 10, ie, I don't think is any more major growth (bar maybe another 10% at tops) and it is pretty well at fair value.

Just my opinion. My error could be that they reach a P/E closer the sector average, and there are certainly a few examples of this within the sector. So I quess the question is, are the market comfortable with giving this stock a premium rating??



GB.

[andysand] 06/5/2002 21:32

Just noticed the DOW falling again. SUS is EXACTLY the right place to be in falling markets. Low p/e, high yield. Not only safe, but profitable. Still thibk we'll make 750p in a few months.

Andy

[alfwilson] 02/5/2002 21:10

Freddie

You took the words out of my mouth.

[longphil] 02/5/2002 09:34

One 2000 share sale showing today and its down to 582.5p. Any ideas about what's going on? Does Level 2 give any clues?

[greatbear] 30/4/2002 22:11

I'm still gasping from the near 30% rise within about 6 weeks (bought at 470).

If you believe in the charting article in the Shares magazine a week or so ago then there should be at least another 100p in the short term.

GB.

[spike_1] 30/4/2002 14:29

GZR .... shoooosh don't rock the boat :o)

[gzr] 30/4/2002 14:07

Surprisingly quiet on this board considering the shares continue to power up, over 600p now.

[andysand] 17/4/2002 11:01

"jeffian - have to admit that I had thought of making the comment about Jim Slater going bust as well, but was too polite! :-)"

According to some books, he was also a crook and a con man(allegedly):)

Andy

[chrisg] 17/4/2002 01:01

jeffian - have to admit that I had thought of making the comment about Jim Slater going bust as well, but was too polite! :-)

As I see it, the company has increased its debtor assets by £10m, and financed half that from profits and half from the bank. Under any scenario, the bit they borrowed from the bank is borrowed cheap and lent dear. The only risk they've got is bad debts, but companies like this have been as successful as they are for as long as they have been, by years of experience in getting that part absolutely right. I really don't think that after all this time, their debtor control is going to go to pot! Its probably the one thing we can rely on! In any event with the family control behind this company, they are not going to go out on a limb financially. This share is absolutely one to sleep very soundly at night with. Fret not! And talking of sleeping soundly, that's what I'm going to do now. Night night!

zzzzzzzzzzz

[jeffian] 16/4/2002 23:39

Andy,
Cash is the one thing you can't disguise. You can make a P&L account say whatever you want it to, but if there's less cash at the year-end, you have to have an explanation as to where it's gone. The "good" answer is that an increasing business requires a bigger capital base but the worrying possibility is that it is going elsewhere and that's what I want to understand here. If you think that the yardstick is "meaningless" for a financial company, would the shareholders of Versaille agree with you?
Jim Slater? Didn't he go bust once?
8-)
Regards, Ian

[longphil] 16/4/2002 17:41

I would not go as far as Andy in saying Cash Flow is meaningless, just less significant. I for one was relieved at only £5M increase in borrowing for a £10M increase in loans. Cash is their stock in trade and they manage a decent markup, but its more profitable the more its own money is used. This is the one disadvantage they have over Cattles. It also constitutes a small additional risk in the event of interest rates rising. One I am comfortable with, but it should be recognised.

[chrisg] 16/4/2002 12:05

jeffian - not quite sure that "bleeding cash" is exactly whats happening here. As a sort of quasi bank, though, I agree its more difficult to tie up reported profits with cash flow. The cash flow from operating activities is exactly that, but would include movements in loans advanced to customers. Therefore although the cash flow from operating is only £1.7m, that will be after taking account of the £10m increase in loans advanced to customers, which you will see from the Balance Sheet increased from £49m to £59m in the year. Reading down the cash flow statement, it seems that this increase in business was financed 50% internally and 50% by the £5m increase in bank facilities. All looks fine as they build the business.

Hope this helps.

[andysand] 16/4/2002 10:35

Casf flow is a meaningless yardstick with financial companies as their business is cash! It's the same with banks. It's one time when you need to look at other things than 'the cash flow statement'. Even Jim Slater states this in his books.

Andy

[jeffian] 16/4/2002 10:15

Thanks, Chris.
I hold these shares and have done very nicely, so not trying to knock them but concerned about the "Versaille" scenario. Fast-growing companies gobble up cash and when this is being funded by ever-increasing borrowings, it's hard to see whether they are ahead of the game until the buck stops! I notice the Chairman's comments about the first of the 3-year loan redemptions beginning to kick in now, so I will be interested to see how this affects cash-flow.
Thanks again for your response.

Regards, Ian

[jeffian] 15/4/2002 23:49

I was away last week so have only just seen the results. I'm probably being dozy, but I'm struggling to tie in the cashflow statement with the P&L account. If it's doing so well, why is it bleeding cash (-£10m last year; -£5m this year rsulting in increased bank loans of £15m)? Anyone out there enlighten me?

Regards, Ian