S & U Share Discussion Threads

[collection agency] 04/8/2004 13:12

Aye, its begining to look oversold. Either its general interest rate worries (potential bad debt increases) or someone knows there is a problem in the offing.

Sold all my holding some time ago but I do like to keep an eye on sus. I would get interested if it breaks up thru the 13ma:

[diogenesj] 04/8/2004 13:03

Can't really explain it, VN. Fairly low growth forecast for the next couple of years (5% or 6%), but the prospective yield is now about 6.8%. Seems to me it deserves a PE of 10-12, but the prospective PE is now 8 and falling.

I suppose higher interest rates might tend to increase the level of bad debts (people having trouble with their mortgages and so on).

Can't argue with the market, so I sold my last shares some time ago and am looking to buy in again when it stops falling.

PS Alf Wilson: you were right. Some of my tips didn't do too well either (especially Victoria). :-(

[verynervy] 04/8/2004 12:29

Well here i am again and the brain still hurts!

A share produces good results and rises well. Soon the share price starts to fall away?

A company issues a good AGM statement - `confidant of meeting full year targets.`

And still the share price falls??

It is paying div of 6% plus??

[verynervy] 27/7/2004 17:47

provident financial and cattles also do the same thing but have done better and are rated at a premium to this share.

This company is fairer to its customers and should do better out of the ongoing review.

have known about it for some time and this is one of the resons I picked thism company!!

[verynervy] 26/7/2004 18:06

No did they? honestly?????????

Think you might be a Chameleon ----- or just a w--ker - trying to con us poor little innocents

Never mind try again.

[remraf] 25/3/2004 22:35

I'm holding for the Divi (XD 2 June)and a creep up to £6 as a good defensive stock. Agree on LAS, I bought before results, big discount to NAV, great to hold while the retail market holds up and exposure to China through its holding in Bisichi Mining(BISI)

[diogenesj] 25/3/2004 17:33

Hi, Alf. I've reduced my own holding a bit: I agree it's not exciting now, but the Coombses have a good long term record (apart from last year's blip due to fraud), and with a prospective yield of over 5% and some growth I think it's a good defensive hold.

I suspect we are now getting near the sell in May stage; in fact, summer seems to have come early what with the Dow sell-off and the Madrid outrage which followed it and made it worse. So I'm not sure I have too many flyers left.

I expect you've got Mayborn, Victoria and Rok. One or two small property companies still look good value: have you looked at London and Associated (LAS)? It jumped on the good results the other day, but still looks cheap on a big discount to NAV.

[alfwilson] 25/3/2004 17:18

Correction to post 247, 3.5 not 2.5 years (Nov 2000).

[alfwilson] 25/3/2004 17:01

DJ

I normally find myself agreeing with your views, so it was with reluctance that I decided to part company today with SUS after almost 2.5 years and a £2 gain. I came to the conclusion that although I have historically enjoyed the gain and the dividends I cannot help feel , based upon experience, that I will get the opportunity to buy back in at a much lower price before it returns to current levels or a bit higher this time next year? In the meantime I might hopefully catch another flyer? Good luck with SUS anyway.


Alf

PS: Can you suggest any flyers?

[biggcl] 25/3/2004 12:12

Yeah - agree with all that DJ. Coombes is really back to his old ebullient self!

[diogenesj] 25/3/2004 10:02

Nice results today: profits and eps up 15% and 14% (well ahead of forecasts), bad debts down, gearing down to 62.8% from 68% (very low indeed for a finance company), historic yield 5%, prospective yield a bit more. The Coombses appear to have solved last year's problem and are back on track.

No longer absurdly cheap after the 60% rise from last year's low, but still good value imo and worth holding.

[outsider] 28/12/2003 09:04

Any of you guys checked Britannia Finance on Ofex?

I reckon it was S&U that bid 24p per share for them, as they bought their Jubilee Credit division.


Britannia have a conservative accounting policy in that they dont take £500 for marketing into profits for each loan taken out, which if they did like their peers would have added much more to recent profits which were up 229% anyway.


They have grown t/o & profits impressively the last 5.5 yrs & look to be on a prospective p/e of just circa 10.


Costs are more or less fixed & profits will start to feed to the bottom line, when the loan book reaches a certain level. The loan book is currently 9m & niche lending means their mark up is currently 500%.


Well worth a look.

[diogenesj] 23/12/2003 10:50

I expect you're right there, Fred. It's a little more than mine is worth, though: I started a little later than he did, and I left it for far too long with the professional fund managers.

S&U seems to be doing OK for the moment. Are you still here?

[ydderf] 22/12/2003 13:43

diogenes - to answer your question, many more than you or the FT realise!

[diogenesj] 22/12/2003 13:03

Yes, interesting article - and he has a PEP and ISA now worth over £1m (and the value was checked by the FT). How many of us can say that?

Step forward, verynervy. :-)

[verynervy] 21/12/2003 19:19

Nice to see that this was one of the private investor robert lees bigger holdings ( FT article this weekend )

[pallett] 11/12/2003 15:34

I also took the opportunity to take profit after having been sat on a fair old loss for some time. It only seems to be worth buying when it is really in the doldrums and the yield is at its highest, I would certainly not be a buyer at the current price, tipped or not.

[mick p] 08/12/2003 23:35

I sold all my SUS holding today. Not through a nervous twitch (I have held SUS since 2001) but because the profit figure said so. (I added at some of the lower numbers we saw relativily recently)

It might go higher , it might not. Credit Freddy though, he did say it would be good to hold for several months after the last results.

Good luck all.

[jeffian] 08/12/2003 23:04

philjeans,
Well, it's a view and you're entitled to it - although the evidence is that the market hates a family-controlled company (viz. Monsoon) - but I have to query your assertion that "The business model.........throws off cash at a rate of knots". Surely that's one thing it does not do. In 2001, net cash outlfow before financing was £7.864m; another £5.372m went out in 2002 and £506,000 in 2003, financed in each case by increases in bank borrowings. There's good reason for this in a growing finance company and I have no particular problem with it, but surely you cannot point to cash generation as a positive point?

Regards, Ian

[diogenesj] 08/12/2003 21:38

All true, PJ, and the family make sure that it produces income, which is also nice. On the other hand, the fact that they are there in such numbers, and keep appointing their needy but inexperienced relatives to the board, is also very offputting to the institutions and tends to keep the share price at a discount.

[philjeans] 08/12/2003 19:06

The point is that these shares are very tightly held and a tip, leading to several( but not huge by any stretch) buy order sends the MMs bonkers, scabbling for stock they just don't hold. They zapp the price up, simply to flush out nervous sellers, in order to balance the books.

This company is a great big opportunity and I BELIEVE 750P WOULD BE FAIR VALUE; BUT IF WE SEE SUSTAINED BUYING, IT COULD TOP £10 EASILY.The business model is very simple and throws off cash at a rate of knots.

Potential for a takeover one day is there too if the Coombes family decide to call it a day - see what HSBC have just paid for Home Credit Corp in the US!

[diogenesj] 08/12/2003 15:46

Just the right kind of company for LTBH, C. But I suppose even you need to keep an eye on it in case things go badly wrong. :-)

I think I'm more of a medium term buy and hold type myself. I like to buy things when they're undervalued, especially if there's a decent yield, hold them for a few months or years, and when the price rises and they're fully valued, sell and find something else. I expect to hold S&U for some time yet.

Hi, Jeffian. Like you, I'd be tempted long before 800p! :-)

[jeffian] 08/12/2003 15:42

I notice that there was a Trading Statement issued on 12 December last year (although there is no particular historical pattern) so maybe another one's coming and someone's got wind of improved performance. It blotted its copybook last year by allowing its South London agent to run off with the cash; it wasn't specific about how much but the deterioration in the London business was around £1.8m (equivalent to around 15.33p per share). Interims disappointed with Turnover, Profit before Tax, and Earnings per Share all slightly down (EPS 24.5p v. 26p at the halfway stage) so if they've managed to restore that 15p-odd to 2nd-half earnings maybe things will turn out better than expected.

Like compscidude, I bought this one on Low PER/High div yield considerations and I think with tight family boardroom/shareholding control and a patchy record, it's likely to stay in that box. Unless it can prove it can show sustainable growth, it needs a good yield to support the price - I'd be tempted to take the Bid long before it reached 800p/3.5%!

Regards, Ian