Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[mwj1959] 19/3/2024 12:25

He bought £2.7m worth of ZNWD a year ago. Bought at 10.4p, now down at 6.5p!

[edwardt] 19/3/2024 10:10

obviously paid too much if he can write a cheque for that amount.

[pvb] 18/3/2024 09:09

...Indeed. 2 million shares.

[makinbuks] 18/3/2024 08:33

Wow, that's a large insider buy

[pvb] 19/2/2024 17:18

...Yes, sort of. They do offer redemption of their preference shares at certain times.

[edwardt] 16/2/2024 15:37

yeez this has been pants. do they do refunds?

[elmfield] 20/12/2023 15:51

About time it preformed, need a few more weeks of the same.

[bpdon] 25/10/2023 12:01

Although RICA have always warned that sticky inflation was their biggest concern, they have also been clear that the challenge will likely be trading the inflation volatility.

It seems reasonable to assume that efforts to tame inflation will eventually lead to a situation (disinflation / deflation) where CBs and governments want to take action that just reignites inflation.

With > 40% invested in short term nominal bonds and cash, I don't see Ruffer as a one way bet on inflation.

Anyways. Yes, RICA performance has been, and continues to be, poor. The swing from a circa 8% premium to 4% discount over the last 18 months has amplified this under performance.

[catabrit] 25/10/2023 11:14

Thank you for that. I will check it out. I am always keen to hear a good counter if it is backed up by solid logic.

[apollocreed1] 25/10/2023 11:10

@catabrit- For the most educated presentations of why we may enter deflation, I suggest you look up Jeff Snider of eurodollar university on YouTube. Ruffer have no idea about how significant the eurodollar market is

[apollocreed1] 25/10/2023 11:07

@spoole5-Lol! Fully agree! I think they had no idea how good cash could be. But it's not easy for fund managers to run a fund and charge fees for just keeping your money in cash.

[spoole5] 25/10/2023 08:07

This continues to not preserve wealth!

[catabrit] 03/10/2023 17:35

Practically every smart investor I rate - one well versed in history and with a thorough understanding of inflation - is long inflation linked bonds in some capacity.

I think their bet will come good, in time.

But it might take many years, a labour government and a wider market acceptance (based on extrapolating a longer near term data set) that structural inflation is here to stay.

At the minute, governments and central bankers are saying and doing all the right things. Whether that continues in the event of revolution, riots, severe economic hardship is another matter. Just look at the massive rise in shoplifting.

But the second the authorities show their hand, you go long linkers and thus you go long Ruffer.

Until then, this could be a challenging thing to own unless we get a major drawdown. I don’t think that’s unlikely actually as I’m seeing a number of warning signs. Whether it’s the softening of the pound, the loss of momentum in the S&P 500 or a number of non-AI / tech / mega cap stocks hitting new 52-wk lows, there are plenty of data points that together signal potential danger.

Also, I just don’t think we’ve yet seen a major generational change in investor / risk behaviour that typically proceeds a correction.

Just my two cents worth.

[jellypbean] 02/9/2023 12:13

Ruffer was short conventional bonds (or an equivalent interest rate hedge). These added 7.3% to the portfolio in 2022, counteracting most of the fall in long ILGs.

I presume they have closed them at some point, as the cost of the protection may have got more expensive, and the likely outcome less assymetric.

The rise in interest rates was predictable due the the end of QE, as was /is inflation due to QE. However the timing and magnitude of both was /is not.

CGT has a policy of not shorting, though I saw in one of their video summaries last year that some of the team would have liked to have been.

PSH has probably done the beast at these low cost assymetric macro shorts in recent years. They are still (I think) short 30 year treasuries, for example), to hedge against their holdings in interest rate-sensitive stocks. They also talk about currency hedges, though you don't really get much detail on thier hedges until after the successful ones have planned out (I presume most don't).

[mwj1959] 24/8/2023 13:08

The point about the relationship between IL and conventionals is a very valid one. The only way they act as a proper inflation hedge is if you are short equivalent conventional bonds at the same time, so stripping out any price movement impact. They and the other defensive trusts got lucky in IL in the periods up to 2020. They owned them because they were concerned about a rise in inflation, but actually what happened was that we remained in a disinflationary world with buckets of QE, which dragged conventional yields lower and consequently IL ones too.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2023 13:01

Once again the share price snaps back when the NAV discount moves beyond a certain % -
helped by the buy back this time.

[mwj1959] 24/8/2023 12:58

And what about their foray into Bitcoin!! A profitable one mind you, but hardly a defensive asset!

[apollocreed1] 24/8/2023 11:19

Oh yeah, I forgot about Alibaba.
Just to add that it turned out in 2022, despite inflation, that cash preserved more value than bonds or stocks.

[edwardt] 24/8/2023 10:25

hmm owning alibaba does not really fit with that does it?

[the millipede] 24/8/2023 09:31

The point of this fund is to be pessimistic. It has no interest in playing the AI/tech rally and if you want to do that, don’t put all your wealth in this. Find a different fund or stocks to own in addition.

[apollocreed1] 23/8/2023 17:01

hxxps://citywire.com/new-model-adviser/news/slump-forces-ruffer-to-buy-back-shares-for-first-time-in-19-years/a2424264

[apollocreed1] 23/8/2023 16:58

2022 was the year of the crash, but losses on their inflation linked bond holdings outweighed any gains from their short option positions. I am still shocked that all 3 defensive funds didn't understand that inflation linked bonds fall in unison with standard government bonds when rates are rising.

[jellypbean] 22/8/2023 16:17

I would have thought they should do better than CGT and PNL, as RICA can use shorts etc. to benefit from falling prices. CGT won't do that, and it's hard to avoid price drops in defensives when rates are rising, without going v.short duration.
Seems RICA dropped their protection from rising rates too soon? Also there's the premium/discount thing.

[lowtrawler] 22/8/2023 15:57

appollocreed, their performance isn't very different to CGT and PNL. The wealth preservation funds are effectively all geared up for a major market crash. In the absence of a crash, they are all performing poorly. They will continue to perform poorly unless there is a crash or they decide a crash is not happening and reappraise their investments.