Rtc Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 25/1/2019 09:26

Thanks Penpont. However the point is (and it doesn't just apply to RTC) that these sorts of announcements are meaningless. What is 'market expectation'? Is it the Whitman Howard forecast or is it a consensus of a number of forecasts? Maybe the market is expecting RTC to undershoot the broker's forecast so missing it would be meeting 'market expectation'. Or maybe the market is expecting RTC to beat it's broker's forecast. Often we see shares fall when a company just meets forecast because the market is expecting better. Why don't they just tell us what expectation they are 'expecting to meet'?

[rivaldo] 25/1/2019 09:26

Great to see confirmation that trading is nicely in line with expectations, particularly given the slow pace of the smart meter roll-out.

Market expectations have been posted here every so often, so to clarify they are:

last year: 10p EPS, 3.85p dividend
this year: 11.6p EPS, 4.24p dividend
next year: 13.1p EPS, 4.66p dividend

Whitman Howard's 95p target sounds about right at present for a current year P/E of 8.2.

If some of their anticipated news flow comes in then there could be upgrades all round as these are presumably quite large-scale contracts.

[penpont] 25/1/2019 08:41

From broker Whitman Howard via Research Tree:



'We expect a number of announcements in 2019 which could positively impact our estimates. We expect RTC to announce a 1yr extension to its current Network Rail contract to include the period up to 2021, confirmation that it is bidding for the next five year Network Rail programme i.e. CP6, clarification that it is bidding for new work from Network Rail which is outside the remit of its traditional 5yr rolling contracts, new contract wins in GSS and an acceleration in the smart metering contracts as SSE is currently operating at levels below the guaranteed minimum. These events, plus the ongoing favourable trading will support our current 2019 PBT estimate of £2.1m representing growth of 16%.


Since the 2018 interims, sentiment has weighed against RTC due to the weaker first half trading and higher than expected net debt position. Given today’s update successfully addresses both these issues, the valuation/growth metrics are attractive. Even at our price target of 95p the 2019E PE rating and dividend yield would still only be 8x and 4%. Given the recent PE exit multiple for Harvey Nash was 11.5x we do not believe our price target is unreasonable for a company with a proven and experienced management team.'

[cwa1] 25/1/2019 08:38

Indeed SteMiS, I find it somewhat galling that they refer to "market expectations" but there are no(readily available anyway) market expectations, nor do they spell out what they are in the announcement. Ought to be a law against it......

[stemis] 25/1/2019 08:15

Hilarious. RTC announces it is trading in line with market expectations. WebFG shows no forecasts.

[cwa1] 25/1/2019 08:09

Fairly upbeat IMHO.

[edmundshaw] 25/1/2019 08:04

Positive update, if a bit, well, laconic.

[11023154] 23/1/2019 10:49

Looks like new end of this week as per 2017. Results were good then, I’m sure the delay is on good news.

[11023154] 15/1/2019 19:36

Point 1, I appreciate. Point 2, I can’t see this happening unless there is serious good news. Secondly I would add, in this eventuality, would this be a bad thing, to run a bigger business...let’;s bare in mind directors here have returned a strong dividend and capital growth over the last four years, since the restructuring and the new business vision. I appreciate some are heavily against the vast directors remuneration but I can assure you the characters who occupy these position like attention from the outside world, so it’s quite important to them that others enjoy the grain from harvest...

[stemis] 15/1/2019 18:24

On financial metrics RTC is definitely cheap. As a non holder, the reason I haven't bought is because

1. directors remuneration
2. the possibility of a fund raising to satisfy the directors ambition to run a larger business (maybe to justify their excess remuneration).

Just in case you were interested.

[11023154] 15/1/2019 17:56

I disagree, if we didn’t have such experienced directors this company wouldn’t have made the progress it’s made over the last five years which I expect to be realised over the next two years and expressed in the upcoming trading update this week or next

[arthur_lame_stocks] 15/1/2019 16:34

The reason the share price is 50p and not a lot higher is because of the Directors, not in spite of them.

[11023154] 15/1/2019 16:16

You both sound upset which is understandable but bare in my the long term game here, which will be realised I’m sure next week or maybe this week by a good statement on the back of 3/4 years of hard work. The share price hasn’t doubled in five years on the back of nothing has it. Disgruntled you may be by smart directors but bare in mind we do share a common interest, which is the growth of this company. Albeit is varying degrees, doesn’t deter away from a good story about a company restricting and getting things right in an exciting time in the market by directors who are experienced. Experience is often underrated in this day and age, they know full well as well that they can’t pull a fast one in a small cap stock. I’m surprised you’re not loading up at this price, which I’m sure will look silly come next week. We’ve been battered by bad news month after month after month but this is why I’m glad we’ve got someone steering the ship with experience and expertise.

I do suspect the good news will be realised this week, and we can look at the long term picture with more excitement than before. I expect the days of 50p will be long behind us as we create new ground very soon.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 15/1/2019 12:42

And then when trading conditions look rosier for the next couple of years they give themselves 13% of the company. I need a few more pence then i'm out. GATC is a much better opportunity in the sector that doesn't appear to have thieves running the show.

[mr hangman] 15/1/2019 12:36

i remember a couple of years back when a couple of Directors sold big chunks of their
shares, only to issue a dodgy trading statement a few months later, they certainly
made plenty of money out of that

[11023154] 15/1/2019 10:53

How else do small company directors make money? This is how it works. It sounds like you made a mistake buying in at a high price. I think 50p is fair value at present but if we continue to see good news then a revaluation will be necessary up to 70p. It sounds like investors have distrust in the management but it’s clear they’re in it for the long haul here and this is one of the few small companies I’m in favour of. You can’t really complain that management are taking what they can, I’d be more sceptical if they weren’t...

[arthur_lame_stocks] 13/1/2019 16:40

The point is all the upside is going to disappear into the pockets of a very, very greedy management. As soon as I can get my money back i'm out too.

[11023154] 13/1/2019 13:03

Yep, should be very interesting. I feel we’re really under the radar in the market and a lost lover. There is serious reason to be interested which is why I’m surprised shanklin and other lt holders have left at this time. This is the most interested I’ve been since getting in in 2013.

[gleach23] 13/1/2019 11:09

Trading update in Jan 11023154. Last year was 18th so could even be next week. Results in Feb.
At least it gives us an upcoming RNS double whammy.

[11023154] 11/1/2019 22:58

Results end of the month as usual, this is funnily enough one of the stocks for the beginner idiot who thinks they could steal 50percent over night. Established business with new management that are properly invested....and have been on track now for several years what’s not to like.

[11023154] 04/1/2019 15:28

shanklin did you sell for that reason? do you not expect them to produce returns for shareholders?

[11023154] 04/1/2019 15:21

It’s a slow and steady rebuild but we’ve been in it now for several years and I expect it’s time now for the real growth. The hard work has been put in since the reshuffle of the team and it’s time for rewards.

[11023154] 04/1/2019 15:20

There for them*