Rhythmone Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 25/9/2018 12:49

"...RhythmOne believes it is well-positioned to continue to seize on the consolidation opportunities that exist in its industry.  The Company continues to evaluate various strategic opportunities with a focus of maximizing shareholder value. "

Sounds like some news coming down the track?

[barkboo] 25/9/2018 12:42

Weather not so good today - just the 25 degrees and a little windy....yet my heart feels so warm. lol

I feel totally blown away - sorry..I feel that Totally have been totally blown away...short to zero!

[digitalis] 25/9/2018 12:36

You need to put more effort in guys.....lots of press on this one coming up?

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 12:24

I think the REDUCED revenue forecast of $422m revenue will get reduced again...
AS EXPECTED by the good judges...



The fy TU also stated fy2019 'in line' but weeks later the fy2019 revenue forecasts were reduced...

"We are pleased with our results for the year, and the progress we have made against our targets in terms of revenue growth, profitability and product integration. We believe we are well-positioned to deliver a further strong performance in FY2019 - fully in line with current consensus estimates in market - as we realize the full contribution of the YuMe acquisition. "






A far cry from the $500m being mentioned just a year ago....
now there's a surprise..

Less than $400m anyone????

[jonc] 25/9/2018 12:23

It must be too much fig jam that is causing your unsettling toilet experiences.

[barkboo] 25/9/2018 12:10

Those lucky scaffolders seem never to be wrong - of course rags tell the world they are never correct..but we like that, that game suits our hand.

Meanwhile - the toilet keeps swirling and swirling. lol

[jonc] 25/9/2018 11:45

R1 is in the parade ring before being shipped off to the knackers yard.

Short to zero.

Treble fig jam and jammy dodgers all round.

[digitalis] 25/9/2018 11:41

Disagree there artee.....that’;s what we do over here!.....tly is in the abattoir ....R1 is just in the parade ring before the big race!......

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 11:39

artees, I don't get defensive.. I accept both bull/bear points...

Becoming too attached to any share is very dangerous, something I never do...
It's dangerous letting money cloud your judgement, as happens here with the gang..

Everyone is entitled to post bear/bull posts on TLY, 1gw provided some and there wasn't anything new to change my view of them...interestly he has also bought 5 times...

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 11:30

Loaf,

Aren't Whitman Howard Tosca's private advisor... and aren't Tosca the largest shareholder????



loafofbread - 05 Sep 2017 - 07:51:32 - 9098 of 12456 RhythmOne - 2016 a new beginning - RTHM
First note out from Whitman Howard (Tosca private banker/advisor)

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 11:26

Ah, ateespresso, confirmed as another rthm holder then... explains a lot...

Toodle pip..
;-)

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 11:19

1gw,

will you be dumping now, like you did after the fy TU...


RAMP - "Mouth Watering broker notes..


1gw19 Apr '18 - 22:52 - 13673 of 16440
0 8 2
Fleshed out optimism then.

They have basically delivered over the last 2 years in my opinion. If you look at the trends they are exciting, albeit starting from a low base. If I have the numbers right, some key metrics are:

Revenues:
FY16 $167m
FY17 $175m (including discontinued ops)
FY18 $255m

Adjusted EBITDA:
FY16 -$10m
FY17 +$1m
FY18 +$14m

Profit/Loss:
FY16 -$92m
FY17 -$19m
FY18 -$?m {-$8m in 1H)

Cash from operations:
FY16 -$6m (Net cash used in operating activities)
FY17 -$6m
FY18 +$7m (corrected)

If I then look at the specific "guidance" for FY18, a year ago, before RadiumOne and YuMe, they pointed to the "consensus" estimates of $220m revenue and $15.1m adjusted EBITDA.

Revenue guidance
Radium One did $20m in financial 2Q, so maybe $40m in 3Q+4Q, $60m for FY18.
YuMe was doing around $40m/quarter, so maybe $25m in Feb-Mar
So adding $220m+$60m+25m, you get to about $305m
Even allowing for some closing down of "non-core" in RadiumOne and YuMe it seems they've come in a bit light on revenue compared to the original consensus.

Adjusted EBITDA guidance
RadiumOne was originally expected to be adj EBITDA neutral over the first 12 months, but then they said synergy delivery was behind schedule. So we can expect an adj EBITDA loss from RadiumOne in the FY18 numbers. YuMe was adjusted EBITDA profitable, so this would help to offset the RadiumOne loss.
It seems to me they must have come close to guidance (adjusted for acquisitions) on adjusted EBITDA

Plus they've done 2 major acquisitions in the year.

So light on revenue, close on adjusted EBITDA and 2 acquisitions. But the acquisitions give them scale, so the revenue miss is outweighed (I would say) by the acquired revenue and improved profitability going forward.

So I'd say a resounding success for FY18. Sort of guided, came reasonably close to guidance and also delivered 2 big acquisitions which vastly increase scale. Then on cash, they're actually significantly operating cashflow positive it appears, which would be a huge change and testament (so far) to the logic of the scale-giving acquisitions.

But the real reason for optimism is the actual guidance for FY19. No longer just pointing to consensus but stating that they believe they "are well-positioned to deliver a further strong performance in FY2019 - fully in line with current consensus estimates in market"

And as others have posted market estimates (Whitman Howard, Numis) are mouth-watering.

And all that against the background of a huge sell off in the share price over the last year - which must have left many shareholders fearing that the TU would reveal an obvious (in hindsight) reason for the sell off.

How's that for considered optimism?







ONE WEEK LATER - DUMP - good profit.. to losses..


1gw27 Apr '18 - 16:19 - 13805 of 16440
0 6 2
I've taken some off the table at just over 2.20, selling the number that I bought on 9th April at 1.62. That gives me a good profit on that purchase or is about breakeven on the weighted average price of the 3 purchases I've made since the merger completed. Brings my R1 holding down a bit but still one of my top 2 holdings.

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 11:10

Yes, more questions than answers...

Maybe the new management did find skeletons with the 1R and had to get the TU out early...

'In line' again.. but not the original forecasts, is it.. Like last time, before the huge falls in revenue forecasts..

Poor update, again.. as expected..

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 11:06

Poor update...

More JAM tomorrow, more 'in line' forecasts, before they are likely to be reduced again...

[jwoolley] 25/9/2018 11:04

Another update with more questions than answers. Nothing changes here....apart from management....again!!

[jonc] 25/9/2018 10:29

No sign of berkpoos hidden profits are there digi.

You still buying into that theory?

[digitalis] 25/9/2018 10:28

I am definitely in a parallel universe to this diabolical market......
Bring on the main market.....lets get some honest injected into this stock

[jonc] 25/9/2018 10:28

A quick poll.

Any of the rampers surprised by the share price action after this disappointing update?