Renovo Share Discussion Threads

[holly_dog] 05/4/2011 17:03

Yeh some good chunky trades from 4pm, coming up as buys on advfn. Another 5.38m shares and Gartmore reach 30% which would make them have to takeover. Either way if it's them accumulating then good as they will push mgt to convert to shareholder cash if someone else (ideally trade buyer) then even better.

Main thing is quick conclusion

[the_doctor] 05/4/2011 16:16

well, that shifted a bit of volume

Let's see if it went to Gartmore!?

[the_doctor] 04/4/2011 11:10

IMO there is only an investment thesis if the company is going to liquidate/sell up.

I do think that's likely to happen, and Gartmore could push for it if not.

A sale is only likely when they can properly price the assets. That will require data from ongoing trials, although 95% of the valuation could be arrived at earlier and the doubt covered by different scenarios

The co. is likely to be focused on restructuring etc., but there's little else to do in terms of strategy
- Juvista - not going to be progressed
- Juvidex outlicensing/sale terms should ge largely resolved already
- Adaprev and Prevascar awaiting data
- RN1005 early stage

In other words, strategic decisions should be easy to make
Perhaps they're in a period of product-centric discussions first, then based on that, they'll have a view on company sale/liquidation values?
I would be surprised not to see the company enter an offer period soon

[holly_dog] 04/4/2011 10:39

Gartmore can't really add too much more without triggering t/o - would be great if we got notice of another fund/institution stake building as would give further support to the investment thesis

[the_doctor] 04/4/2011 09:43

I cant see L2 today, but GSCO or whatever their moniker is, appeared to just keep altering the amount, causing their offer/bid to flicker.
I cant see why, but perhaps there's some algo that causes it to do that?

[bill182] 04/4/2011 09:30

There appears to be a lot of activity on L2 this morning, although this is not currently showing as trades. I am no expert, but it looks as though someone is building at 15p.
Anyone have any more knowledge or views on this activity?

[the_doctor] 02/4/2011 17:40

the title is nothing more than a nickname, but I do have extensive knowledge regarding drug development
drug trials are funny things (funny not really the right word), and there is a surprisingly high proportion of products with positive Phase II results that then fail in Phase III. There are all sorts of reasons. Sometimes just bad luck in PIII - or PII had been lucky.
In the case of Juvista, I'm not sure why though. I've always been sceptical of the challenge they expected of it, but parts of the earlier data were positive. Not all bear in mind - several trials failed. It's possible that the PIII patients were different in some critical respect. I'm not sure RNVO have any idea at present!?

[alimo] 02/4/2011 12:59

Does the_doctor title mean you have knowledge on the matters surrounding medical trials whether pre clinical, or P1, P2 or P3, and the science which is proven, but chooses to go awol (except for Juvista Paediatric which performs as it should according to the science)in the First of the P3. Is everybodys skin different, and how different were the randomly chosen 350 patients compared to the 1500 patients that previously showed significant improvement compared to placebo? There was a design change this time where the patients themselves were asked to give their opinion on the changes, compared to previous trials where the examining panels were experienced medical experts. Could this have led to the disappointment - ie I would be disappointed if the improvement wasn't 100%! Comments?

[the_doctor] 31/3/2011 22:40

'their shareholders will not want to run the risk of further failed trials'

eh?
you have no choice. The trial results are coming.
It's no risk over the remainder of the trial costs

They'll plan ahead either way, but why would they not wait and see if the results in H1 and H2 come out positive.
IMO they'll only really be able to sell off the products after those have come in.
They could reach a decision on everything bar the H2 results and have that resolved one way or another by adding or not an extra amount

[holly_dog] 31/3/2011 18:19

Doctor - really doubt they will wait for further results. Their credibility has been undermined, and their shareholders will not want to run the risk of further failed trials, using up cash, to end up with a company worth nothing. Who would back them?

As per your point Alimo, one does hope that there is some value in the IP, but because of P3 no one will have to pay much of a premium for it which is a shame, but surely 20 years of research and a wide clinical pipeline is worth at least £10m? Adding that to £42m in cash, less say £5m in wind-up costs gets you to just about 24p. Then adding on a control premium should hopefully get you towards 30p or so, which would be great

[the_doctor] 31/3/2011 17:54

Juvidex - due to be partnered early 2011, but no or low upfront

Prevascar - showed positive data in 2007. data in H1 2011 could be positive also, raising chances of partnering

Juvista - mixed data. pivotal failure. Is there enough there for someone to continue?

Adaprev - POC study reporting H2 2011. Hard to say what commercial potential

Pre-clin pipeline

I think there may be enough there for one party to take the lot and sell off parts it doesnt want

[the_doctor] 31/3/2011 17:40

I could see Allergan getting the assets

[the_doctor] 31/3/2011 17:39

Well, my view is that RNVO has considered it not worth the risk pursuing the ped indication with its remaining cash

I guess this may be seen as a valuable asset, although note that it was required rather than being something RNVO wanted to do per se

[alimo] 31/3/2011 17:12

Perhaps the_doctor could give his understanding of how on 23rd Nov 2010 the RNS says that Juvista(Paediatric) successfully met it's P3 primary and secondary objectives with significant results against placebo and gave such an upbeat statement to the market about the 500 application twice would produce the best results in the First P3 trials for revision surgery for adults.

The share price shoots up to 78p on the strength of that news. Now that was in November 2010 and then in Feb 2011 we are told that Juvista didn't meet any of its primary and secondary objectives in the Adult surgery, although in the previous clinical and P2 trials over 1500 patients had received the benefits of Juvista with significant improvements in comparing Juvista to placebo.

So, why isn't Juvista(Paediatric) formula going ahead to further Trials - there must be thousands upon thousands of children around the world that are crying out to be able to be given the chance of having their scars revised, and RNVO say that somehow after all the science and successful P3 for J(P) they cannot see how they can proceed with any of Juvista. How is this so? Does nobody with real knowledge of what happens in the trials query this? Is there no Stock Market or media investigation?

I bet you that Gartmore know all about what has happened and what their agenda is.

[the_doctor] 31/3/2011 16:56

'these guys will just want to get any money they can out of the company at this stage'

well, it's a question of time and value IMO

a rapid push would yield less from the pipeline, giving just the cash and sale value of a listing?

slower, would allow time for H1 2011 data, and later for H2 2011 data - that can only really give upside IMO

So, will a bidder pay enough now for that, or will they wait and pay more/less after the data are in?
I suspect the latter, but the offer process could perhaps start soon still?

[holly_dog] 31/3/2011 15:47

Yes they could push if management were stalling, but I think they are alligned - these guys will just want to get any money they can out of the company at this stage, they all deferred payments to options recently so they will be hurting financially. Ferguson owns c.10% of the company.

I see little if any downside given balance sheet and 40%+ upside. Hoping for swift conclusion to put the money to work elsewhere

[the_doctor] 31/3/2011 15:41

Ah, ok, thanks

Would anyone buy 27% and not try to at least push management if they had to?

Perhaps they just see it as low risk, with a good chance of decent upside? I do

[holly_dog] 31/3/2011 15:24

doctor - on the day it dropped 10% before 12pm announcement. It was only on the day, but somebody knew and dumped. As you say on the way up everyone thought it was going to work.

Gartmore aren't an activist fund, they would have no interest unless it was for a client. Trade buyer must be most likely

[the_doctor] 31/3/2011 13:06

holly - the massive rise prior to PIII could also be seen as an indication that there was no leak. The small drop back may have occurred anyway?


bill
Gartmore would need 1.6m more to get to 28%. How much of that they have is unclear

a further 3.8m would take them to 30%.
Not sure 30% is their target per se though. Clearly there are reasons to stay under it if they're not going to go above.

[bill182] 31/3/2011 11:48

It looks like Gartmore could be in the market again today, with 1.4 million shares traded today (11.46) already.
They must be close to the magical 30% when they will have to disclose their intentions!

[holly_dog] 31/3/2011 09:32

For me the results are in a way immaterial, this is a play on whether the total assets of the company are less than current share price (which is true). If anyone is looking to buy they will be in DD looking at latest cash run rate, which is main asset at the moment, and then taking a view on any value attributed to other IP (in which there must be something to show for 20 years work). >= 25p would be great. If it's close, I expect a little jump in the same way this dropped right before P3 announcement (where there was clearly insider trading)

[the_doctor] 30/3/2011 10:44

Agreed, although it's possible they'll have to wait for a) the H1 2011 results anticipated or b) those in H2 2011

[holly_dog] 30/3/2011 09:58

I'd hope for sooner doctor, they will want to maximise value and each day longer it takes burns more cash (although obviously they have taken steps to significantly reduce this as is). I'm hoping for next month or so to hear an announcement

[teh hampster] 29/3/2011 15:52

Doc

Free hd porn videos?

Whatever next.

[the_doctor] 29/3/2011 15:46

Interim results likely mid-May, so I'd anticipate hearing more on the plan then....