Redrow Share Discussion Threads

[the juggler] 02/6/2020 21:46

Sold out today after making a smidgen over 26% following news of redundancies. Doesn’t feel right to me and it’s never wrong to take a profit.

[mx5richard] 20/5/2020 17:04

Sales office at Basildon site reporting plenty of keen interest from hot buyers I don't know about the other sites

[ssarwar2] 13/5/2020 12:23

What is happening to the sp???

[mx5richard] 12/5/2020 10:37

I work on the Basildon one and I have friends at witham we’ve now been told 18th but small gang there were certainly no bricks layed during this time , if anyone was on site it would have been very few ,

[cupra kid] 07/5/2020 14:00

Redrow never officially closed all sites and many remained open albeit with limited trades on site. Things definitely picking up this week and even more so next week, the caveat being that it will be slow progress for the foreseeable.

[harrida5050] 27/4/2020 09:20

Key development here will be when customers are able to start moving again, difficult at the moment to understand how house sales will be effected.?

[peterwybrow] 27/4/2020 08:41

Gotta be happy with that!

[mx5richard] 23/4/2020 17:54

I've heard that redrow are looking to restart on the 11th of may I've got this from a site manager in the south east , it will be limited numbers of personnel tho

[the juggler] 23/4/2020 08:27

Redrow will surely follow suit and get back to work too.

[shaker44] 14/4/2020 14:07

Maybe the Emerging signs of gentle lifting of some restrictions in some countries will discourage sellers/shorters, so maybe we have seen the bottom now. But not without risk to buy now!

[harrida5050] 14/4/2020 13:43

Shares look like good value but can't see anything positive to drive price up until lockdown lifted!

[rndm355] 09/4/2020 20:04

The article I linked to was bullish on RDW for reasons including the Covid Financing Facility.

[dr_smith] 09/4/2020 18:15

Following my Sunday post:
"With UK markets closed Fri-Mon, that means Thursday will likely be volatile, as folks decide whether to stay battened down, be risk averse and/or fear worse, or whether optimism sniffs a change in that critical corona data chart and tries to get in early."
Seemingly not volatile with nice 9.58% increase and volume of trading was only 80% of your average day.
I think the key thing as I guessed "optimism sniffs a change in that critical corona data chart".
It ain't conclusive yet (for UK) but looking good and on a like trajectory to our European counteraprts, a few days behind them.

[rndm355] 09/4/2020 11:41

Borrowing headroom and discount to book value:

[dr_smith] 05/4/2020 21:15

Just remembered, Easter next weekend.
With UK markets closed Fri-Mon, that means Thursday will likely be volatile, as folks decide whether to stay battened down, be risk averse and/or fear worse, or whether optimism sniffs a change in that critical corona data chart and tries to get in early.

Hypothetically, if a 4 day period was enough to imply controlled order, return to normal work etc, then share price on Tues opening could be set much higher by MM's and a window missed.

God knows which way it will go (says the atheist)..but that unknown, with little comparitive data, underlines the liklihood of a frenetic market on Thurs.
IMO :-)
Dave

[dr_smith] 05/4/2020 18:57

It's normally quiet on this thread, so funny having you gate crashers 'cos your regular haunt is spoilt. ;-)
Interesting seeing different perspectives above.

For myself, I made a note of sp's 14/2/20, last day of "normal trading" and keep a google sheet of current prices along with the % of what they were.
bwy 45% (e.g.less than half normal sp)
psn 50
rdw 38
tw 44
vty 35
bkg 64
bdev 44
gfrd 67

On the above VTY and RDW would seem favourite.

Looking at EPS+Div for next 2 years, on pre CV figures, I calculate VTY has the highest return.
Whatever the CV factor hit is, I have assumed it will be the same across the board for all HB's, so looking at pre CV data still has merit.

Having said that BKG being London centric will likely be different.
I don't currently hold BKG as I believe this London centric aspect is an un-neecessary risk for me, when many regional builders to spread holding, but other folks may take different view of London economy.

I sold my BVS last year, as I felt their build quality and management were letting them down. I since became a holder with my GFRD shares being converted, and also topped up, believing the Linden homes positive glow to spread to the old BVS team.

I haven't looked at HB asset/liability ratios in detail, but superficially aware all the HB's seem t have plenty of cash cover/assets and/or credit facilities and an outage period of 70 day CV window (China outage) would seem a good a rule of thumb as any - but who can say with confidence.
Lending is also at a cheap time, low interest rates.

For VTY, given the recent acquisition of GFRD with £200m given to them, you would think they would be low on readies, but the recent CV update, does not raise any concern and they even say they are ahead of schedule on the integration.

I have about 2/3 of my folio on HB's and could top up but hesitate only because that other third should be elsewhere.

IMO
Dave

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 05/4/2020 17:36

Thank you Skyship.
Appreciate the article :)

[sikhthetech] 05/4/2020 15:30

waikenchan,
"Agree that TW has lots of cash as as it stands has a good liquidity buffer in relations to its costs and it is a very profitable company."


It's not just whether any HB currently have a lot of cash atm.

How much will the leasehold scandal redress cost them? They will still need provision for that regardless of Covid-19.

New builds command a higher price and so have further to fall than price drops for other properties...

London house prices are likely to fall substantially, as I think foreign investors are likely to withdraw from the market there. Property prices already started to fall in Dubai and India, before Covid-19, so I think international investors will be very wary...

Then there's domestic btl investors. There was an increasing number already selling due to tougher tax rules, again pre-Covid-19.


Therefore, I think avg property prices will fall substantially over the next couple of years..

[skyship] 05/4/2020 14:34

t.l.a.t.s.a.t.t.:

Thnx for the above - being an IC subscriber I have now read that article; and reasonably encouraged for my selection to buy BKG & VTY. Below is the IC View summary:

By the way, I'm about to send you a Private Message inc. the previous IC Tip for VTY.

IC View

Economists at Oxford Economics are forecasting a 1.4 per cent contraction in UK gross domestic product this year, although given the question mark that hangs over how long the coronavirus epidemic will last and its eventual impact on companies, any modelling should be taken with a large pinch of salt. For investors in UK housebuilders, attention should focus for now on financial resilience - debt levels versus assets and the level of cash reserves. On that front, balance sheets across the sector are in a healthier position than they were prior to the 2008 financial crisis, with lower levels of gearing even after including land creditors. We would highlight recent buy tip Vistry, which has been reducing its landbank and streamlining its operations over the past two years, as a potentially resilient operator within the sector.
This article was updated on 31/03/2020

[waikenchan] 05/4/2020 14:22

But I think the most attractive is according to fundamentals metric is TW.