Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[essential] 21/12/2015 09:54

Bought a few more too...

[woodcutter] 21/12/2015 09:18

bought a few more at 201p

wc

[woodcutter] 21/12/2015 08:16

well done nap great return so far

timber chopper (i seem to recall those were your words!)

[treeshake] 21/12/2015 07:48

Bhp stopping divi - others will follow - people will be looking for safe places that pay good yields

[napoleon 14th] 20/12/2015 19:39

If REDD went full list, like PAYS (Mkt cap £1.7Bn) in FTSE250 soon, what would the rerating be worth to us?
Which category would REDD fit (Mkt cap £600M), FTSE350 or just "all shares"?
Must be some II who'd like some but can't deal in AIM.
Also gets rid of AIM label...

Still, I've simply held since the XR @ 25p (nothing clever)
& wish my whole portfolio had done like this one.

[woodcutter] 19/12/2015 19:07

some simple numbers

suppose REDD does 10.5p eps this year and grows at 20% annually
eps 2017 12.6p
per 16.5 at today price hardly demanding for this growth
peg 0.83 still not that demanding

I would expect further broker upgrades and the share price should rise on that expectation. If it was on a forward per of 20 the share price would be 252p based on 12.6 eps which is not unreasonable for this kind of growth.

According to digital look the forward per for 2016 before the new ts was over 20 on eps of 8.8p so it's not out of the question for 250pish.

market cap is only just over twice sales and price to book value is 3.44 which looks a little toppy with all the intangibles thrown in. Notwithstanding it's the eps growth and ROCE which are more important in my humble opinion.

Of course we have to be mindful of the wider market, if there's a sell off then all bets are off.

wc

[woodcutter] 19/12/2015 18:42

piston

It's always a issue trying to decide whether a pullback will become a full blown correction and reversal of the trend. Going back to pitm's point about the ruler and trend line theory, which is very basic, you'll often pull out of the stock using this simplitic model only for the share price to continue after it's had a breather. That's why the indicators are so important.

The share price is in open water now so it could rise to any level, it's impossible to guess, but my thoughts are we'll see a pull back and more investors will get on board and then it will rise again. For a price to become support or resitance it has to be tested at that level and then bounce back, so there's no resistance.

I would never sell a stock that's moved to a new all time high until there was clear evidence of a serious trend reversal. At some point I would expect it to consolidate but not yet. For many stocks the use of the five year weekly chart is so important for trend appraisal

For me TA isn't about predicting exact price moves it's more about probabilities and risk reward for buy and sell positions. Some technical analysts use fibanacci and elliot wave theory which may help but i've never been a fan myself. I'm not saying it doesn't work it's just never appealed to me.

if i had to make a judgement, normally i'd think it would go up again on monday before falling back on profit taking as the week goes on. However it's the week before santa comes and trading might be thinner so it could be more volatile. There's still a bit to go before it's truly overbought on some of the indicators too.

If it continues to deliver 20% eps annually and grows to a half billion turnover business, which i firmly believe it can, then just sit tight and enjoy the ride, it will make us all quite wealthy.

woody

[steeplejack] 19/12/2015 15:16

It's not easy to finesse this one,especially when you're sitting on substantial capital gains.I sold half around 175p and looked clever for awhile buying some back in the low 150s.Now I wish I'd just hung on to my full holding until it hit 2 quid which always looked likely.A lot of historic high yielding mining stocks have or are likely to lose their dividend attraction,making Redde even more attractive to income seekers.A multiple of around 20 looks a tad heady but there's nothing in that rating for takeover imo.If they slip back to the 190s,I think we'll see buyers.The stock has migrated from being a somewhat speculative recovery play to a very solid institutional hold with a well above average yield.This must be the jewel in Woodford's crown this year.

[pistonbroke1] 19/12/2015 12:41

Well last week was a stella performance much more than I thought. It looks like the recent acquisition is going to add significant value and the share price is responding accordingly.

Woody as you seem to call it pretty well where do you see this current run topping out. The RSI is starting to get a bit top heavy with perhaps just a little more wriggle room. When it does finish this current run do you see it consolidating or do you expect a pull back and if so where to.

I have to admit that I did take some off the table yesterday as I felt sure it would settle back under £2, I now want to get back in but not at the top of a run hence my question.

[fizzypop] 19/12/2015 12:12

Who needs a Christmas rally when you own REDD.
Fully expect a 10p divi total for 2016.

[treeshake] 19/12/2015 10:59

Expect some cracking figures in February and maybe an aqcuisition or two early on by the looks of what was said here :-

"The successively strong performances of the Group delivered under our Growth,
Profitability and Sustainability strategy is generating good returns for our
shareholders. The acquisition of FMG, which completed in October 2015, has
enabled us to broaden our reach into new and related markets and diversify our
earnings. The outlook for the remainder of the financial year is positive and

........

we continue to examine opportunities to augment our sustainable growth plan."

[woodcutter] 19/12/2015 10:41

eps growth 20%
yield +4%
ROCE 20% this is stunning in comparison to most stocks

There isn't another share on the market that i can find that's delivering that kind of performance. I'm heavily invested, and expect this to be one of next years major performers.

aimho

wc

[bruceylegs] 19/12/2015 10:22

Congrats Narbuckle, I thought I was doing well with my 3 bag.

[narbuckle] 19/12/2015 09:40

Yesterday's finish had a certain symmetry for me, closing at 208.75. I first bought this share on 4th Dec 2012 at a price of 2.09 pence and have sold small chunks to cover my initial outlay. I now hold a six figure amount of shares and re-invest dividends when they are paid (which is often).

Why did I buy back then? I pranged my car a while back (not my fault) and was insured via the AA. A company called Helphire called and said they had been appointed by the insurer to manage the claim and they sorted the repair and the hire very quickly and efficiently. I was impressed with them at the time.

Years later, I noticed HHR near the top of a list of companies whose share price had broken out of it's normal pattern (ADVFN Outbreak list, 26 week). I did a bit of reading on the boards, going back a year or two and studied the accounts. At the time, claims management companies were being panned for bad practices; HHR had just badly mis-stated their finances and had reported a loss. But they were still turning over a serious amount, had hired APB and a new finance team and I couldn't imagine insurers going back to handling this kind of business themselves.

I wish all my share dealings were as effective as this, but like most investors I am glad I hold REDD as it makes up for the performance of others.

How long to hold? As long as the divis keep coming I will be happy to hold as my initial investment has been repaid several times. There will be more acquisitions and consolidation in this sector and I think REDD are a big fish with plenty cash.

[napoleon 14th] 18/12/2015 21:03

Brilliant share.
Champagne time...

[treeshake] 18/12/2015 15:48

well done indeed !

[hillbrown] 18/12/2015 15:44

My initial 70k investment in Redd now worth 300k plus the divis and not a takeover in sight and all within the year. Stupendous!

[broadwood] 18/12/2015 14:14

Phenomenal.

Bought on the results yesterday early.

Handsome profit already.

Well done longer termers.

[capricious71] 18/12/2015 13:42

That drop to 140 or thereabouts looks even stranger now.

Congratulations to anyone who topped up around then.

[treeshake] 18/12/2015 12:59

nice spot Jeff

[jeff h] 18/12/2015 12:54

FMG going well:-

"Earlier this week, FMG was awarded a “significant” vehicle recovery contract by North Wales Police. The contract, which starts in January 2016, also includes Lancashire Constabulary, Cumbria Constabulary and Lincolnshire Police, and has been awarded for an initial three-year period with the option to extend up to a maximum of five years.

FMG will take responsibility for managing the recovery, storage and disposal of vehicles that have been abandoned, stolen, involved in collisions, or crime, and the recovery and roadside repair of police vehicles.

According to FMG, this will amount to around 22,000 new recovery requests per year for the company, which is continuing its “strong organic growth” in the incident management marketplace."

[skinny] 18/12/2015 12:46

Reasonable volume to accompany the rise.

[red army] 18/12/2015 11:35

£2 is the line in the sand as far as resistance is concerned and should become support before going off to £4

[treeshake] 18/12/2015 11:18

Blimey we got there fast - who's doing all the buying ?