Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 30/11/2015 08:27

Credit where credit is due,Paul Scott and chums got Quindell pretty much spot on while heavyweights like Fidelity Boston got it hopelessly wrong.Watchstone isn't out of turbulent waters,there's more to be played out before the end of the year.None of us get it right all the time but when someone stands against the prevailing tide and calls it right,it's a feather in their cap.I lost money in Quindell overall because my concerns were assuaged by quality institutional buying and industry associations. Trouble is,even if you were in a Titanic first class cabin,you still all went down with the boat.I banked profits fairly frequently until Redde cleared the quid mark and greater clarity emerged.Redde looks to be suffering little more than a healthy correction before heading higher imo but after a very strong run,it's inevitably vulnerable to profit taking.

[nicky name] 29/11/2015 21:40

paulypilot likes to pretend that he rode Redde all the way up

but he has been in and out of this stock

like an in and out thing

he might have made a small profit, but nothing like he could have done had he held

[nuttynige] 29/11/2015 19:13

Having said that looking at the rns time, he probably timed it wrong for a day trade. Who knows?

[nuttynige] 29/11/2015 19:11

To be fair it wouldn't be wise to short in to positive momentum and he didn't. He shorted in to weakness, and may have turned a little gain for all I know.
He seems to be getting a hard time for being opinionated, people in glass houses and all that.
It's good to have a different view to keep you honest I think. I hold for income.

[bc4] 29/11/2015 12:17

Hi Nicky N read my post 1586 also if he new anything he would have shorted REDDE at 183p not 157p

[nicky name] 29/11/2015 12:00

Paul Scott on twitter

Redde (REDD) - I see Aviva have just reduced from 14% to 13% (RNS just out). I've shorted it at 157p.

Bloody stupid justification for shorting

[woodcutter] 29/11/2015 10:51

I had a quick browse through the last company report over the weekend and couldn't find any financial breakdown of the seperate business units.

REDD directors may be well advised to provide such a breakdown of sector performance; revenue and operating profit as a minimum, for their businesses in the next annual report. This would add clarity to their results.

aimho

woody

[woodcutter] 29/11/2015 10:24

My position on PS is that he may well be a very nice credible guy with high morals and integrity however the manner in which he operates leaves himself open to criticism as it lacks clarity indeed it's very opaque. He should declares all his positions imv so we can make are own judgements on whether or not there's any manipulation.

Many investors who know and have met Paul seem very supportive of his credentials but statements like he made in my post 1580 undermine this integrity. All he had to do was wait for the statement to appear and then provide his opinion.

That's it for me now on PS we need to get back to +ves and -ves of REDD as an investment case.

woody

[bruceylegs] 28/11/2015 08:50

I have some respect for PS for highlighting the issues with Globo, Chinese AIM companies, Blinx etc.

However, his stated moral high ground position against Redde because it's just an "ambulance chaser" appears to have clouded his judgment; his small cap share reports demonstrate how he's repeatedly failed to call the Redde trend because of his self-appointed role of moral crusader against a sector that will overcome this bump in the road.

[woodcutter] 27/11/2015 19:53

I hadn't intended to ridicule paul more to point out the lack of objectivenenss in his position. If you have the opportunity talk to some of the people who work in this sector at a senior management or director level. Thankfully i have had that opportunity through access to a director within one of the major insurers and there's a real drive to out source as much as possible to reduce costs transferring the burden of administration and pension provision etc, the market for REDD is only going to get bigger. Despite the share price rise we are only just at the beginning of events that will overhaul the sector.

Most of these large insurers (LRE excepted but they're a very specific insurance business) have combined ratios in the high ninety's and make a considerable amount of their returns through their investment strategy so overhead reduction has become a very important factor

Why do you think there has been considerable consolidation within the sector this last few years and there will be more.

REDD is only at the onset of it's potential.

woody

[bc4] 27/11/2015 19:16

36p well you should have bought REDDE if you need any tips BC4 CHEERS Paul
paulypilot
2 Oct'15 - 00:14 - 4794 of 4801 0 0


Hi CR,

Good to see you here. I bought some SDY today at 36p, as the Bal Sheet strength is now protecting the downside in my view.

The company seems somewhat shambolic, but I was impressed with how the most recent pr warn had surprisingly little impact on the shares - they should have dropped 30%, on a bad warning, but only fell 14%. That says to me that the bad news is now probably mostly in the price, but recovery has not yet been factored in.

Above all, SDY has a really good Bal Sheet, so that gives downside protection, and also makes risk reward positive in my view, if you are prepared to ride out any further falls.

It's not a share that I will buy heavily, but I am happy to have a dabble at this level. Am avoiding HSS due to car crash Bal Sheet.

Regards, Paul.
Share prophets more like share losses

[hvs1] 27/11/2015 19:07

his royal scottness is certainly a capable writer of columns, columns that will be filled with his royal opinions and great wisdom

but his capabilities as an investor leave much to be desired

his highness is out to fill the columns and airwaves with his offerings and most likely fulfill a desire to become famous, those who cant invest can always earn a crust making noises

meantime, a trend change is under way here after a year or so of stunning rises, it had to happen sometime,

i wouldn't be inclined to short this, there are easier junk companies out there, this isn't one, i think his royal worthiness having sold out here some time back and declared the price was up with events has proved to be rather wrong, maybe he's now out to prove a point for his rather large ego, a dangerous game methinks, lol

i have no position here now, good luck to you mr woody

[bc4] 27/11/2015 19:02

Woody if Paul Scott new anything about REDDE he would have shorted at 183p not 157p HA HA HA my sides are aching

[woodcutter] 27/11/2015 18:07

Has anyone read the ps small cap review today?

i was particularly smitten by this little ditty

"The other thing to consider, is that all these companies will probably put out reassuring-sounding statements (if they haven't already) but how meaningful are they really? The wording needs very careful scrutiny, as much for what it doesn't say, as what it does. Cleverly constructed words can hide problems sometimes."

far be it for me to suggest that this might be an attempt to persuade his avid readers to support his short position. And we're led to believe it's not a tip sheet.

yes paul cleverly constructed words can very much hide the potential for opportunism. I see clearly what you mean! BS

Perhaps he could give us his critique of the statements opining where the gaps between the lines may be and quite what they may mean

A simple i've shorted REDD because Aviva have reduced their holdings and the autumn statement puts the industry at high risk would've sufficed if it was a genuine opinion newsletter.

Neil Woodford and Giles Hargreave verses Paul Scott no contest

Woody

[it_trader] 27/11/2015 18:05

Pauly pilot, ouch, although this will finish down by next week. Ignoring today's spike the tend over the last few weeks is down. Somebody knows

[bruceylegs] 27/11/2015 17:39

Nice short Pauly Pilot, impeccable judgment as always my man.

[bc4] 27/11/2015 16:40

It trader who took the short out at 157p just remind me please?

[bruceylegs] 27/11/2015 16:39

Now blue in post-close trading. Maddest day ever - completely Felicity Kendall.

[pottsypotts] 27/11/2015 16:22

Glad to see the issued statement, was getting a little twitchy and ready to sell, hope for a steady climb now or even sideways will do me what with the hefty divi yield.

[woodcutter] 27/11/2015 16:14

one of the interesting areas of TA is the phase when a trend is broken and we have ascertain if it's a retracement or a genuine reversal of the trend. The FA is pretty useless under such circumstances although today the FA has been pretty supportive of the return to common sense.

A geniune reversal of trend is usually seen after some period of consolidation rather than a sharp fall as fundamentals usually change over time. Although that isn't always the case it happens the majority of the time. Today wasn't a profit warning, far from it, so the FA hasn't changed one iota.

I would expect from here we may see a period of consolidation while we wait for the next TS to come out, which i expect to be promising. Only regret today wasn't buying more at the drop.

It now looks to be back in cloud support with resistance around the current share price of 160p. A break though this will give significant strength imv.

woody

[woodcutter] 27/11/2015 15:53

the last half hour will be an interesting mix of day traders who bought low taking profits and shorts concerned about holding over the weekend buying back

wc

[it_trader] 27/11/2015 15:51

Down trend from before Autumn Statement will continue.