Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 14/5/2023 15:59

Redde Northgate (REDD) – this commercial van hire and accident management service provider has a lot of operational reasons why its rating is low but many of those reasons are also the seeds for what might make this a far more attractive business at some point. However, the changes that would be needed are substantial and their impact is likely to be long-dated; stocks tend not to re-rate on things that could or should happen but that are not in train. The seeds for change are present but do still need to be planted. However, if one is willing to take a 3-5 year time horizon, more meaningful capital gains are possible and there is the cushion of a well-funded 6 per cent yield while you wait. 

[zho] 23/4/2023 12:26

Very good value, says Paul Scott, although such businesses never seem to achieve high ratings.

from 21:25

[zho] 19/4/2023 16:56

Before today’s update analysts at Numis had a 500p price target on the stock while Barclays had a 556p target, so we would expect both firms to crank up their valuations along with their April 2024 and April 2025 earnings forecasts.

[rcturner2] 19/4/2023 16:29

Tough market at the moment with the inflation news and interest rate outlook.

[johndoe23] 19/4/2023 13:58

No position but was expecting more of a rise today, possibly?

[skinny] 19/4/2023 09:38

A pleasant surprise this morning!

[deanowls] 19/4/2023 09:25

Yes this seems to go unnoticed. Has a large asset backed price with large contracts. Has not disappointed since the merger/takeover. Pays a fantastic divi also.

[rcturner2] 19/4/2023 07:07

Excellent trading update from Redde this morning.

[rcturner2] 12/4/2023 14:38

I bought into REDD this morning, seems like very good value at this level.

[zho] 06/4/2023 14:54

REDD tipped in Shares Mag article 'Five cheap stocks to buy now'.

"Numis has a fair value of 500p on the shares
and highlights the low valuation and attractive
dividend yield, while Barclays has a 556p
price target and sees ‘good scope for further
underlying growth’ due to revenue synergies
and market share gains for Redde ‘which should
drive improving returns and a further re-rating’.
Currently the shares trade on 6.6 times forecast
2023 earnings and yield 6.7%."

[deanowls] 23/3/2023 15:23

Big drop off here, anything to worry about? We had a trading ahead last year mid March. Next news May?

[zho] 16/3/2023 12:14

Used van prices in the UK seem to have been reasonably steady during 2022 according to the figures/graph in

[fenners66] 16/3/2023 09:32

Anyone remember this discussion from last year?

"rental
7 Jul '22 - 08:38 - 4628 of 4690
"Maybe 1 billiion than the written down value on 100000 vehicles, which all could this extra profit could be released over the next 18 months with ease,"

rental
7 Jul '22 - 15:58 - 4630 of 4690
"I’m not posting any more after this post"
"So I will 100 percent stick with my 1 billion of vehicle worth over write down value on 110000 vehicles thanks"

So nothing to worry about in the share price temporarily then as rental thinks there is a £bn profit hidden in there, despite the quotes I added from the accounts saying there was a lot of the uplift already accounted for and not forecasting forward a massive gain....

So will the share price suddenly leap up several pounds when all is revealed , or does the market know more ?

[swiss paul] 16/3/2023 08:12

something happened? We seem to be on a bit of a downward trend

[dicktrade] 13/1/2023 10:18

deano

I thought the same , fingers crossed the share price can keep edging up

[deanowls] 13/1/2023 09:53

Good read across from the DLG results with number of accidents/claims they have recieved in motor, hard to get parts and replacement car values. Should see the average rental days extend and prices being supported.

[jam2day] 15/12/2022 09:44

Yes it's today

[zho] 15/12/2022 08:52

Today, I think. Ex dividend days are always Thursdays.

[ramellous] 15/12/2022 08:32

Ex div today.

[zho] 07/12/2022 16:09

Management is optimistic about the second half, saying the group’s full-year performance should be “modestly above market expectations”. Moreover, Redde Northgate is certainly attractively priced, with a forward PE ratio of just 7.8. However, vehicle shortages still worry us. Hold. 

[rmillaree] 07/12/2022 14:28

On my adjusted numbers i would say company is on for 40p clean eps this year completely removing profit on vehicle disposals (thats also ignoring goodwill amortisation and the adjustment upwards ref depreciation adjustment). I have done this calc to see what base is if we presume in future such disposal profits could vanish completely (if they tinker depreciation policy down too much then losses could even be possible on disposals)

So company in fine fettle as long as we take the viewpoint core earnings will not collapse when things flip and we end up with a glut of cheap vans on the market.
In that regard they seem to be doing everything fine as far as i can see.

Ref fleet and split betwen owned and not they seem to be taking measured approach here - i think at present slightly downsizing owned fleet whilst prices are bouyant is abit of a no brainer. Perhaps reverse policy if it turns out there is a glut of vehicles later that manufacturers cant sell for top dollar.

[disc0dave45] 07/12/2022 12:41

Yes thanks.My concern is that the buyback could be the main contributor to year end eps growth.Have pencilled in 50.5p now for the year (assuming there's about 3.3m of shares yet to be re-purchased), and with their increased net debt that's also a concern when allowing for in their forward PE rating.Underlying eps growth of 7.7% when say 5% less shares in issue (only quick look so could be wrong) doesn't look too good IMO.