Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 01/9/2022 08:54

Thanks PP - I hadn't made a note of that. The dividend is 15p in case anyone else is in the same boat.

[purplepelmets] 01/9/2022 08:45

x div today if anyone else was confused by the drop

[wbodger] 26/8/2022 12:53

Yes. That's what I meant about the buying opportunity. CA seemed to want to pay dividends, there was no urgency to sell.

[flyfisher] 26/8/2022 06:25

And Crystal Amber then sold out of REDD below 200p, just before the big rise.

[wbodger] 19/8/2022 16:19

"there was a rumour of a bid" ... that was when Crystal Amber were shareholders of Northgate and were pressuring management to break up the business. Instead Avril arranged the RTO with Redde and CA sold their NTG holding because the Activism strategy had worked but not as they wanted.

Then Covid hit all share prices! (Great opportunity as it turned out.)

I remember there was a rumour, but wasn't it short on details? (The company that owned "webuyanycar.com", possibly?)

[sophia1982] 18/8/2022 09:54

Rental and Fenner66, I have found your exchange of messages very useful. Many thanks!

Rental, the annual results date April 2022. How much has the price of vans increased since then?

Honestly, I must admit I am pretty confused on how the company presents the depreciation or perhaps I am just ignorant. Take for ex page 33 of the annual results' presentation. You would expect net profit to shoot up when you reduce depreciation, but that does not seem to be the case: "Depreciation rate change will be included in statutory results but will be removed from underlying results so that underlying performance measures are not affected".

Probably there will be a gap between IFRS and underlying results, but I would not want to spend my days trying to reconcile the two.
If (IF) the residual value of the vans increases substantially - as seems to be the case -, there should be a way for this to flow into the results and the cash flow.
On my side, I see a single digit increase in profit for the UK and Spain. Redde could do even better, considering the significant investments recently made. But proceeds from sales (in the UK, I also don't understand how the PPU can be so low in Spain) could be, actually should be, a real treat.

Another thing which I do not fully understand is why the company is investing so much and not reducing debt. Perhaps this is required by the business and the competitive environment, but, on the other side, the metrics are less interesting and less valued by the market (hence a very low valuation). Also it makes a less interesting target for potential buyers. If I remember correctly, a few years ago (without Redde), there was a rumour of a bid at (at least) 475p.

[retailronnie] 10/8/2022 16:36

"It continues to see exciting opportunities to deploy capital organically and has a good M&A pipeline. Even after taking into consideration capital to fund organic growth, payment of dividends in line with the Company's dividend policy and acquisitions within the M&A pipeline, the Company has substantial headroom under its facilities and target leverage of 1-2x."

They sound pretty confident.

[zho] 10/8/2022 11:28

Stinking or stonking?

[deanowls] 10/8/2022 11:26

Actual asset backed NAV of 260p and a stinking dividend, buy backs, more efficiencies to come, new contracts starting, a car and can hire squeeze some generating more per car. What’s not to like.

[swiss paul] 10/8/2022 08:59

Not according to them they blame it on people not wanting to release them in sufficient size.
As an aside most organisation that I know who were doing buybacks have suspended them and are hoarding the cash - its a bit of a bumpy road ahead!

[purplepelmets] 10/8/2022 07:10

Buyback extended through june 2023 and another 30m squid
Bit of a relief tbh. I think REDD is about the only one out there buying REDD shares.

[rental] 28/7/2022 09:17

john, I meant not posting any more on certain repeat discussion,

weak holders taking small profits hopefully have now all jumped ship and we can start rising up again.

Used Van Prices are now rising again, there is a fear of the worse van shortage situation ever from October 22 onwards all through to very late next year (dec 23) if so, and I am very confident of this myself due to future new supply numbers on new vans, Van Rental Prices will rise further, and disposal prices will leg up again many times over next 12 Months, Could be another "depreciation free" 12 Months for all the rental and lease fleets.

[johnrxx99] 26/7/2022 06:51

Will this have an effect?

[johnrxx99] 25/7/2022 09:30

Rental - I thought you said you're not posting any more.

[rech] 22/7/2022 12:28

Hi rental, I'm rather amazed that the biz model survived the insurer backlash. The old FD, wasn't in any rush to find further employment. In his late dad's words, "he's not short of a bob or two"!
Just a token amount of REDD shares left, I'd sold the lot in my late mum's estate, but then more appeared (div auto reinvestment).

[rental] 22/7/2022 11:35

Hi rech, i held 2.9 percent of hhr for many years, done very well, but so wish i would have kept them, I spoke to the old FD many times and was a nice chap he supported the same football team as me.

[purplepelmets] 21/7/2022 19:46

Hellfire was the all time coolest name for a PLC. I remember working at a brokerage and we all fell about in uncontrollable laughter when the boss said it was one to push
Edit because how i read outloud the name, no disrespect to the comp

[rental] 20/7/2022 09:00

i like these steady daily rises, I think we will be at 1 billion market cap shortly

[riverman77] 19/7/2022 12:29

Car insurers all reporting huge increase in claims inflation and long delays in getting repairs done. Has to be good for the credit hire division (the old Redde).

[rental] 15/7/2022 14:28

This is certain to me as a long ride upwards now for my reasons above,
I’ve been in vehicle hire and vehicle sales for 35 years and been on Northgate's payrol 20 years ago.

[harris tweed] 15/7/2022 09:26

FWIW Shares magazine have REDD as a buy as this week's 'bright idea'. They conclude "Redde Northgate has it all: cheap valuation, 6.25% yield and growth".

[fenners66] 07/7/2022 17:57

So (and I was not being selective before they were just the first figures I found)

The UK arm

"Disposal profits of GBP44.8m (2021: GBP37.3m) increased 20% versus the prior year. The reduction in the number of vehicles sold was offset by the significant increases in sales values resulting in an 82% improvement in the average profit per unit (PPU) on disposals to GBP4,300 (2021: GBP2,360). "

on the UK fleet they are already recording £4.3k
I guess the question is why the Spanish fleet is so far behind ?

But why already flag this up with anticipated lower depreciation and lower disposal profits offsetting and not flagging more profit to follow ?

Perhaps they are forecasting a return to normal on disposal profits ?
They have extended the life of vehicles as they cannot get replacements - maybe they see this as holding back disposals until the new market / second hand market gets back to normal?

[rental] 07/7/2022 16:58

I’m not posting any more after this post

Firstly Trust Me Redde get it, avril is as sharp as you will ever find,
Vehicles purchased in 2020 2021 and early 2022 on old 2021 deals are going to be worth around £10k over the write down figure, fact
Mine our and others I know who own rental company’s, there’s are too. Fact,

The accounts will not show this full stop, that’s normal.
When we apply for large credit we now show the lender the written down values and also add the trade/retail value of the vehicle to show the massive un accountable net worth we are sitting on, it does not show on the accounts until we have disposed of the asset

Please if you don’t believe me maybe write to redd or speak to another vehicle rental Company owner,

My question is why are they not letting us know on the RNS, to me I think something will be going on in the background maybe a MBO or another merger with probably constellation group (another Avril Company), please Google them, they have bca, Webuyanycar cinch marshals recently and many more.

Im telling you now there is a gold mine here of Net Asset correctly not shown on the accounts.

1 year old vans were selling for say £13995 plus vat
In June 2020 (2k over right down average at June 20), the same vans Now sell one year old at £21995 plus vat for example.
These 1 year old 21 Reg vehicles were purchased at the same price we were paying in 2020.

So I will 100 percent stick with my 1 billion of vehicle worth over write down value on 110000 vehicles thanks
And confrim Redde have done nothing wrong with the accounts, the vehicles just didn’t deprecated like there were correctly written down too each month, they appreciated in value instead, which never ever happens normally as we know. As new vans arrive used vans will be sold, cars have risen even more than vans.

That’s it im out

[fenners66] 07/7/2022 10:14

rental - you say I don't get it.

But since I am quoting from the accounts , you mean you are saying Redde don't get it !

Really?

They are being explicit with the disposal profits , such as with Spain :-

"A total of 6,100 vehicles were sold in Northgate Spain during the year, 47.4% lower than prior year reflecting the restricted market supply of new vehicles in the year.

Disposal profits of GBP5.3m (2021: GBP2.9m) increased 79.8% including a GBP4.0m headwind relating to previous depreciation rate changes. The reduction in the number of vehicles sold was offset by the significant increases in sales values resulting in a more than threefold improvement in the average profit per unit (PPU) on disposals to GBP870 (2021: GBP 254)"

That is what is indicated for future returns in the previous quote.

Even 110,000 vehicles at £870 each is only £96m so your idea of a £bn is way over the company's own figures.