Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 24/10/2022 14:15

>>Has the company notified us of the running total of the buy back>>

I think that's the 13,116,556 shares held in treasury.

[jam2day] 24/10/2022 09:56

Has the company notified us of the running total of the buy backOr has anybody kept a tally

[disc0dave45] 13/10/2022 18:04

Missed todays dip!, oh well there's always another day.

[disc0dave45] 12/10/2022 20:10

Had these on my watch list for a while and now having another look.Looks undervalued IMO with forward PE on underlying eps of 4.8x (assuming my 63p eps is achieved). On normalised eps forecast (49.4p consensus) on a forward PE of 6.1x. Also trading below NAV (388p) by 22%. Div yield over 7% too, what's not to like?......okay net debt isn't brilliant, quick calcs it's nearly 3x underlying pbt (whereby 3x is my upper rule of thumb). Also, the cost of their debt is only 1.9% with 76% at fixed interest rates, so fairly well protected against rising interest rates. The share buyback could be contentious but with 7% div yield and an additional 17m shares potentially purchased, increasing eps by circa 7%, thus generating additional value, then it's not a red flag for me.

[swiss paul] 27/9/2022 15:01

Aw cmon Fenners - the poor old board have ot do something to enable their bonus to be trousered.

Erm did I also read in that RNS about renegotiating debt?
Leverage remains well within our stated aim of 1-2x, supported by our refinancing in October 2021 with debt maturities extended up to 10 years.

Would it not make sense to reduce the debt before doing all the financial shennanigans. Its the way it works in my house.

[zho] 27/9/2022 08:13

Current Trading

Following the encouraging start to the year, as previously announced, the Group has continued to trade well. As expected the UK&I market for new van supply remains tight, while new car availability is showing early signs of improvement. In Spain, new van supply is performing better than anticipated and the ongoing levels of new fleet are supporting growth. Residual values are softening gradually in line with expectations, but remain significantly above historic levels. Margin levels have remained strong, with inflationary pressures being actively managed.

[zho] 23/9/2022 10:25

NED John Pattullo buys 20,000 shares

[deanowls] 08/9/2022 16:14

Same here at 3.17, watched the last presentation last night, decent dividend and buy backs so they aren’t afraid to reward shareholders. Big customers coming on this year and with no lockdowns should benefit on the redde side.

[rental] 08/9/2022 15:53

Nice little top up here for me today

[zho] 02/9/2022 12:22

Pendal Group ("an Australia-based independent, global investment management company") has declared a 5.01% stake.

[rental] 02/9/2022 10:08

Every used van is getting mopped up out of the system right now from the people that know

Expert profits here to soar

[rental] 02/9/2022 10:07

Repeated post

[skinny] 01/9/2022 14:32

Perhaps 'they' read this thread - that definitely said "Ex Dividend Date 2 September 2022" earlier!

[disc0dave45] 01/9/2022 14:29

Nothing misleading, today is ex div day, as posted here by others, as stated on their website and in their prelims.

[skinny] 01/9/2022 11:40

Slightly misleading :-

[pottsypotts] 01/9/2022 11:10

What is the divi yield on these seems a fair old drop although it is a bit of a " down day" on the market I suppose

[rental] 01/9/2022 11:00

I’m a buyer today, nice little buying opportunity here today for me.

Answering the question above, used vans peaked in price around March april 2022, they dropped back a bit in August 22 but there was still shortage of stock and now as I predicted used van prices have gone nuts again and we are on course for my predicted disruption in October 2022 due to the shortage of vans. As I’ve said before Prices I think will peak in October 22 to new highs and continued for 12
Months as that.

Rental prices will rise due to shortage.

[zho] 01/9/2022 08:54

Thanks PP - I hadn't made a note of that. The dividend is 15p in case anyone else is in the same boat.

[purplepelmets] 01/9/2022 08:45

x div today if anyone else was confused by the drop

[wbodger] 26/8/2022 12:53

Yes. That's what I meant about the buying opportunity. CA seemed to want to pay dividends, there was no urgency to sell.

[flyfisher] 26/8/2022 06:25

And Crystal Amber then sold out of REDD below 200p, just before the big rise.

[wbodger] 19/8/2022 16:19

"there was a rumour of a bid" ... that was when Crystal Amber were shareholders of Northgate and were pressuring management to break up the business. Instead Avril arranged the RTO with Redde and CA sold their NTG holding because the Activism strategy had worked but not as they wanted.

Then Covid hit all share prices! (Great opportunity as it turned out.)

I remember there was a rumour, but wasn't it short on details? (The company that owned "webuyanycar.com", possibly?)

[sophia1982] 18/8/2022 09:54

Rental and Fenner66, I have found your exchange of messages very useful. Many thanks!

Rental, the annual results date April 2022. How much has the price of vans increased since then?

Honestly, I must admit I am pretty confused on how the company presents the depreciation or perhaps I am just ignorant. Take for ex page 33 of the annual results' presentation. You would expect net profit to shoot up when you reduce depreciation, but that does not seem to be the case: "Depreciation rate change will be included in statutory results but will be removed from underlying results so that underlying performance measures are not affected".

Probably there will be a gap between IFRS and underlying results, but I would not want to spend my days trying to reconcile the two.
If (IF) the residual value of the vans increases substantially - as seems to be the case -, there should be a way for this to flow into the results and the cash flow.
On my side, I see a single digit increase in profit for the UK and Spain. Redde could do even better, considering the significant investments recently made. But proceeds from sales (in the UK, I also don't understand how the PPU can be so low in Spain) could be, actually should be, a real treat.

Another thing which I do not fully understand is why the company is investing so much and not reducing debt. Perhaps this is required by the business and the competitive environment, but, on the other side, the metrics are less interesting and less valued by the market (hence a very low valuation). Also it makes a less interesting target for potential buyers. If I remember correctly, a few years ago (without Redde), there was a rumour of a bid at (at least) 475p.