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REDD Redde Northgate Plc

427.00
-4.00 (-0.93%)
Last Updated: 09:51:48
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Redde Northgate Plc LSE:REDD London Ordinary Share GB00B41H7391 ORD 50P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -4.00 -0.93% 427.00 426.50 427.50 433.00 425.50 433.00 59,915 09:51:48
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Passenger Car Rental 1.49B 139.24M 0.6141 6.95 967.05M
Redde Northgate Plc is listed in the Passenger Car Rental sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker REDD. The last closing price for Redde Northgate was 431p. Over the last year, Redde Northgate shares have traded in a share price range of 310.50p to 433.00p.

Redde Northgate currently has 226,741,545 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Redde Northgate is £967.05 million. Redde Northgate has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 6.95.

Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

Showing 4626 to 4649 of 4900 messages
Chat Pages: 196  195  194  193  192  191  190  189  188  187  186  185  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
07/7/2022
09:38
Nope you still don’t get it,

The impact on todays profit today is still there, like 10 fold normal profit

The vehicles have not deprecated at all in last 18 months, but redd have been writing them down still at normal levels up and to may22,
Therefore because the vehicle real worth have actually gone up there are maybe worth £10k each over todays write down figure,

They should have halted writing down vehicles last July 21 but they didn’t,
Which means the massive accounts profit is to come and now, and over the next 2 and 3 years on disposals

What redd are Saying is Rental turnover without the diposoals took into consideration will show as higher profit now as the write down is less.

It’s all win win whatever,
And Redd are sitting on a goldmine of profit to release as they sell vehicles after the rental life.

Watch the share price rise when investors start asking the question
“””; how much are the vehicles worth today over the written down value”””
Maybe 1 billiion than the written down value on 100000 vehicles, which all could this extra profit could be released over the next 18 months with ease,

Just look at the accounts of someone like Scot Group who have been selling their ex rentals at 6 to 12 months old.

rental
07/7/2022
00:39
rental - I understood what you were saying , but

the notes already explain the future impact and as best as they understand it , it is not what you are expecting....

" Residual values have increased significantly over the previous two financial years due to the disruption of new vehicle supply which has increased demand for used vehicles. Up to this point, no changes have been made to depreciation rates on existing fleet vehicles as the extent and longevity of this buoyancy in residual values has been uncertain. However, it has continued for longer than anticipated and uncertainty remains over how long it will take for supply of new and used vehicles to return to a more normal level.

For this reason, there are a number of vehicles on our fleet where the depreciated book value is below or very close to the expected residual value at disposal. In line with the requirements of accounting standards, a decision has been made to reduce depreciation rates from 1 May 2022 on certain vehicles remaining on the fleet which were purchased before FY2021.

The impact on the statutory income statement over the remaining holding period of those vehicles is expected to be as follows:


GBPm FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 FY2027 Total
Reduced depreciation 54.6 30.9 8.2 0.3 - 94.1
Reduced disposal
profits (7.8) (40.4) (38.0) (7.0) (0.9) (94.1)
Impact on statutory
EBIT 46.8 (9.4) (29.8) (6.7) (0.9) -
---------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------


The impact of the changing depreciation rates on this component of the fleet will re-phase statutory EBIT over the next 5 years but will have no impact on underlying results and no overall impact on statutory profit over the life of the fleet. The changes are non-cash items. "


So a boost in the next period but that reverses afterwards.

Also you will note that disposal profits

"Disposal profit 50.1 40.2 9.9 24.6%"

Up by 9.9m on last year , or £90m already accounted for , did nothing for debt

"Closing net debt 582.5 530.3 "


With some of that broken down as

Lease liabilities 52,524 32,375
Short term borrowings 21,007 12,159
Lease liabilities 111,755 96,093
Long term borrowing 421,822 400,885

So a bigger Disposal profit this year than next and debt rising at the same time.
They have effectively borrowed cash to pay for the buyback and more to come
So no.
debt will not be paid off
they are not as prudent as you.

fenners66
06/7/2022
20:52
Fenner66

You not getting what I’m saying above,

A Vehicle is written down to say £4000 on the accounts but it’s actually worth £14000 when sold and that’s its true value not shown in the accounts, you can’t appreciate vehicles in your accounts,
So when redd turns say 60000 thousand vehicle stock to new over next 24 months, an extra £600 million profit should
Be available over the normal asset release figure to reduce debt or buy shares.
Vehicles numbers will also drop as you just can’t get the vehicles and the old vehicles will be too tempting not to sell at high profit over write down. The fleet will shrink over the next 12 months, rental rates will go sky high; nothing now will stop rental prices rising further,
Some rentals company’s are just packing up and selling their vans, as they can’t get any more and the owners are retiring on huge vehicles profits.

So the net book value is not actually
Correct, this is completely normal for a rental company but the gap use to be £1000 or £2000 a van, it’s now more like £10000 to £12000 over written down value for every van

My own vehicles are worth at least £8 million over the net book value and we have stopped writing our vehicles down as there is no point any further as the gap is huge.now.,

Every time a vehicle is disposed off we making £10000 to £12000 a time profit it use to me like £1000 to £2500 per van

We have massive profit to come here at Redde, 100 Percent, it’s the same with every rental
Company I know.

A bit of natural fleet size shrinkage due to vehicle shortage and massive future disposal Profit per vehicle shoutout
Put us to zero debt within 30 Months
I will be at zero debt myself In 4 months from
Now, every rental company is going the same way due to what we hold in vehicle stock and the price they risen by, redde should he no exception, no one could mess up what has happened not even the worse run rental company.

rental
06/7/2022
16:15
Car market strains support Redde Northgate's margins

Tight supply supports profitability of rentals business

zho
06/7/2022
12:02
zho - going back to your edit of "underlying EPS"

this:-

"Amortisation on acquired intangible assets of GBP19,778,000 (2021: GBP19,513,000) is not classified as an exceptional item as it is recurring. However, it is excluded from underlying results in order to provide a better comparison of results between periods as the Group grows through a combination of organic and in-organic growth"

There may be growth in the underlying - but the justification of it in the first place is more BS

There appears to be about 7.5 more years worth of amortisation to come so yes it certainly is recurring and that 50p figure for underlying EPS is not going to be accessible any time soon!

fenners66
06/7/2022
10:07
Rental - re debt - are you and I reading the same set of accounts ?
fenners66
06/7/2022
10:05
Well I think we Doing a lot lot better than we are letting on here, it’s pretty obvious why, so they can continue and renew another share buy back program so as to pick the shares up at a cheap rate,

The question is why the buybacks and holding the price back still before letting on how good things really are at Redd,

I’m very confident if things stay how they are Redd could have it’s debt to zero in 30 months.

rental
06/7/2022
08:39
This bit was telling, and I am glad it's included

" The overall cost of borrowings at 30 April 2022 is 1.9% (2021: 2.0%).

The margin charged on bank debt is dependent upon the Group's net debt to EBITDA ratio, ranging from a minimum of 1.45% to a maximum of 3.25%. The net debt to EBITDA ratio at 30 April 2022 corresponded to a margin of 1.95% (2021: 1.85%). "


Essentially they are admitting , that which I have been arguing about elsewhere, that borrowing to do buybacks actually reduces earnings , here because , 1 its more borrowing , 2 it costs a higher rate on all borrowings.

So whilst there is a technical chance (all other things being equal - no guarantee) that EPS rises because of declining shares, there is the certainty of reduction in earnings through lower profit - more interest cost and no doubt more refinancing costs in the future.

Stop the pointless buybacks and concentrate on growing profit and cash rather that reducing shares !

fenners66
06/7/2022
08:31
I did get down to cash flow and free cash flow.

I have to say that explaining away the cash flow as "steady state" if you ignore "growth capex" is BS.

A rental company that buys cars to rent and calls them capex is kidding no one.

May be following accounting standards , but essentially rental cars are stock and replacing stock is what
they have to do not treat it as ignorable "growth capex".

fenners66
06/7/2022
08:28
Just reading through the results, ongoing....

One thing that struck me , was how difficult it is to find a reasonable definition of "underlying earnings"

There needs to be a clear reasoned explanation much earlier in the report.

fenners66
06/7/2022
07:49
I've only just noticed today' results.

Eps of 41.3p well up from last year's 26.6p (good), but way below the consensus of 48.7p given on REDD's web pages (bad).

Edit: Although "Underlying EPS was 50.8p (2021: 31.0p), 63.9% higher than prior year with an average share count of 246.0m (2021: 246.1m). Statutory EPS was 41.3p (2021: 26.6p)."

zho
05/7/2022
06:21
I’ve edited a bit more rental info into my last post so will repost here also,

Expecting good results here,
My somewhat small van rental company 800 vans just completed its year and net profit was over double the yearly rental turnover, due to the vans going up in price rather than Normal price deprecation with Age,
I would expect 4 or 5 times normal yearly net profit at the very least here if they have managed to free up car and van stock to dispose off,

I would also expect a huge reduction on the borrowing, due to vehicle shortage and huge profits.

Future expectations, huge rental demand from customers due to continued vehicle shortage across the whole vehicle rental industry return higher rental rates (around 26 percent higher now to rent a van for Month), disposal prices beginning to lower since end of May 22 which peeked from September 21 to March 22

If rental demand does return to normal, then the hire company will be disposing of these vehicles at future vast profit, so win win to come, I would also say that if the company has continued to write down the vehicles at the normal level through this vehicle appreciating period then we have a event where the real net asset on the vehicles are prob 40 percent
higher than the vehicles write down figure shows on paper
at the very least,
This company will be sitting on a future gold mine now, having invested up to 3 percent in the old helphire company Myself a few years back I am very confident Avril is a pure genius in her position here and her other positions.

The only downsides the vehicle rental industry is seeing right now is rising interest rates, but the lower total borrowing the rental company needs should be offsetting this 2 fold, so should not be a downside,
Another potential downside is vehicle reliability and wait times for vehicle warranty repairs at main dealers, the new adblue engine era should be more reliable than they actually are, main dealer staff shortages exist with like up to 6 week wait times for repairs, but again I think Redde has it’s own mechanics that are authorise to carry out warrenty repairs on their own vehicles backed up by the vehicle manufacturers. So not all bad for Redde

Improvements required, some of Redde sales centres are truly shocking retail areas, have a look yourself on Google maps,

It’s clear Redd needs to now go on the acquisition approach for its own high quality commercial vehicle sales
centres, it reported 2 years ago it was doing this, but I’m fully aware this is not happening as reported previously to share holders here. I have both myself, rental and high quality commercial sales centre and this is the way to go my own net profits jumped up 650 percent once the quality sales centre build was completed.

Whatever Redde do, they have made a whole heap of money this year and will do the same or more in the next 12 month period due to real vehicle values of their vehicles over vehicle written down values for their existing vehicle assets

rental
04/7/2022
11:28
You've reminded me to check on what we're expecting:

"Based on the current trends the Board now expects full year underlying profit before tax for the year ended 30 April 2022 to be in the region of £150m, comfortably ahead of consensus[1] of £133.9m. The Board expects disposal profits to account for c.33% of the full year underlying profit before tax compared to c.43% in the prior year."

That works out at eps of 48.7p assuming 20% corporation tax and 246.1m shares.

zho
04/7/2022
11:03
Expecting good results here,
My somewhat small van rental company 800 vans just completed its year and net profit was over double the yearly rental turnover, due to the vans going up in price rather than Normal price deprecation with Age,
I would expect 4 or 5 times normal yearly net profit at the very least here if they have managed to free up car and van stock to dispose off,

I would also expect a huge reduction on the borrowing, due to vehicle shortage and huge profits.

Future expectations, huge rental demand from customers due to continued vehicle shortage across the whole vehicle rental industry return higher rental rates (around 26 percent higher now to rent a van for Month), disposal prices beginning to lower since end of May 22 which peeked from September 21 to March 22

If rental demand does return to normal, then the hire company will be disposing of these vehicles at future vast profit, so win win to come, I would also say that if the company has continued to write down the vehicles at the normal level through this vehicle appreciating period then we have a net asset on the vehicles are prob 40 percent higher than the vehicles write down figure at the very least,
This company will be sitting on a future gold mine now, having invested up to 3 percent in the old helphire company Myself a few years back Ii am very confident Avril is a pure genius in her position here and her other positions.

rental
18/5/2022
09:00
A bit slow at first but picking up nicely now
bc4
18/5/2022
07:10
.




Strong FY2022 performance across the Group

Redde Northgate (LSE:REDD), the leading integrated mobility solutions platform providing services across the vehicle lifecycle, today announces its pre-close trading update for the year ended 30 April 2022, ahead of its results for the full year scheduled for Wednesday 6 July 2022.

Group trading

The Group has continued to trade well across the business and performance for the full year is expected to be in line with the upgraded expectations set out in the Group's trading update on 15 March 2022.

Based on unaudited results, underlying revenues (excluding vehicle sales) were approximately 24% higher than FY2021 and total Group revenues (including vehicle sales) were approximately 12% higher than the prior year.

As has been widely reported, global new vehicle supply has slowed and, consequently, demand for used vehicle sales has remained strong, which has positively impacted residual values. We expect new vehicle supply to continue to be tight over FY2023 due to ongoing macro events, with some moderation of used vehicle pricing.

We have focused on the effective management of both the supply of new vehicles to the business and the number of vehicles disposed, which has resulted in average Vehicles on Hire ('VOH') growing around 8% year on year. Redde volumes continue to be around 90% of pre-Covid levels, although we are seeing longer hire lengths due to the impact of macro challenges in supply chains for parts in the wider vehicle service, maintenance and repair process.

Whilst cost inflation has been felt across the Group, it continues to be carefully managed and margins have been in line with expectations. Underlying cashflow generation remains strong and the business operates with significant headroom on its committed facilities following the refinancing in November 2021.

Outlook

The ongoing macro challenges in the global automotive supply chains look set to continue in the short term, albeit expectations for a recovery next calendar year are growing. On this basis we expect to retain more of our van fleet this year and limit disposals in order to meet customer demand, and to grow our car fleet in line with our strategy.

With strong performance in all areas of the business and supplemented by previously announced new business wins, the Board expects to see another year of progress in FY2023.

Commenting on the trading update, Martin Ward, CEO Redde Northgate said:

" We have delivered a very strong trading result this financial year. The breadth of services and products offered through our mobility platform has extended our reach with existing and new Partners. We have continued to enhance our model, with multi-year service contracts providing ongoing repeatable revenues and earnings. With significant further opportunity for growth, and building on the strong performance and momentum in the business, we look to the future with confidence."

Notice of results

The Group is planning to announce its preliminary results on 6 July 2022 and publish its Annual Financial Report shortly thereafter. The Group's interim results for FY2023 is expected to be announced on 7 December 2022.

Presentations will also be made available via a link on the Company's website: www.reddenorthgate.com .

For further information contact:

Buchanan

David Rydell/Jamie Hooper/Hannah Ratcliff/ Verity Parker +44 (0) 207 466 5000

skinny
18/5/2022
07:08
Surprisingly upbeat TU this morning. Margins unaffected, nice going lads. Expecting this to get back above 400p in short order.
purplepelmets
13/5/2022
08:50
No there will be a pre-close update in May

The Group plans to announce a pre-close trading update for the year ended 30
April 2022 in May 2022, ahead of the publication of its full year results
scheduled for July 2022.

bc4
12/5/2022
14:37
>>Pre-close update soon 12/05/2021 last year>>

Pre-empted by the 15/3/22 TU I would have guessed. If so we'll have to wait until early July for results to end April.

zho
11/5/2022
09:35
Pre-close update soon 12/05/2021 last year
bc4
01/4/2022
13:39
It may well do but those figures have been changed within the last week.
zho
01/4/2022
12:10
The REDD website states the information on this page was last updated on 10th January 2022.
piwood
01/4/2022
11:55
The REDD website now shows consensus eps to 4/2022 increased from 38.6p to 48.6p, and to 4/2023 from 45.5p to 46.8p.
zho
16/3/2022
16:07
Yes, quite amazing.
skinny
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