Rbg Share Discussion Threads

[elsa7878] 26/7/2023 13:11

I hope so. Kitchen sink all of Nicola's expensive add ons and then we can see the core.

I want to know how the core is trading and whether Ian is staying and has signed his contract. Those for me are the biggies. The rest is noise. With that I will depart until tomorrow.

[fft] 26/7/2023 13:08

2). Couldn't the litigation write offs be treated as an exceptional item as they are non recurring ? This will allow the headline numbers incl EPS to be a lot better and only those who go past page 1 will notice it. And most will ignore because it is a one off and won't impact the continuing business, which is what most are interested in.

[clive7878] 26/7/2023 13:02

Share price may have bottomed out - but buyers are buying on speculation in my view and not as yet on any solid known future facts - except that there may be no dividend or a vastly reduced dividend and there could well be a loss situation when all of the extraordinary items are taken into account. but in 2024 maybe things will have been on an even keel and we will all be enlightened.

I have been watching trading and comments very closely of late whether to buy in or not. Share price on Friday could be 30p a share or 23p per share. Need more concrete facts which will come in time.

[elsa7878] 26/7/2023 12:54

Right from the top.

1) That does not effect the cash in the business it's merely an accounting issue and beneficial as it will mean they can offset it against tax. That's also why the Lionfish sale was structured as the repayment of an intracompany loan so as to avoid tax. They did actually receive a cheque from the buyer.

2) Agreed.

3) Agreed - so they have this year, next year and the year after.....not next week.

4) All payments have been made in cash and shares - check the accounts. 2021 and 2022 from memory. Not this year.

5) On that basis - tomorrow is irrelevant. I agree if you look at the bigger picture. It may take a year or more to sort out Nicola's mess but as you said they are good businesses.

6) Do I have to repeat my thoughts on the dividend..again?

Nicola coming back!? Are you serious? Not sure whether to laugh or cry.

[lennonsalive] 26/7/2023 11:58

Selling back and wheeeee down we go again

[tomtrudgian] 26/7/2023 11:10

OK, we actually know rather little for 2023, but quite a lot is fairly certain about 2024:

1/ At year end 2022 the intangible assets (stated as brand value, customer reputation, goodwill, and the (excellent) web sites) were £57.9m. The auditor’s insurers are bound to require some of this to be written off in the year end 2023 accounts.

2/ At year end 2022 the litigation asset cases were stated as £10.6m. Most of this will obviously now have to be written off in the 2023 accounts too.

3/ The £10m 5 year acquisition term loan has to be repaid to HSBC by 2025. Only £3m has been repaid so far.

4/ There are also performance payments due to the Memery and Convex sellers. They were expensive purchases but may well prove themselves profitable buys in due course.

5/ The forthcoming trading statement may well indicate reduced debt and profitable trading. This however is bound to be trivial in relation to the four considerations above.

6/ HSBC bank are wholly unlikely to allow a significant year end 2023 dividend, as the 2023 accounts are bound to show a loss regardless of the trading results.

Enjoy the roller coaster ahead, but make sure you sell before the 2023 accounts are audited in March 2024. Then repurchase strongly, as I suspect both Premier Miton and Nicola Foulston are planning to do. RBG is a good company.

Tom

[aleman] 26/7/2023 09:29

Quite a few battered smallcaps have reported today and seen their shares bounce. The market seems to be in a short-term positive mood and it can be seen in some individual and index moving averages, with a fair number of smallcaps regaining 50-day and 200-day averages in quickstep. I remain bearish generally but not for RBGP. I hope to see a similar averages move with RBGP in coming days when news revealed is not quite as bad as some comments on here in recent weeks would have us believe. There is still a company here and it should now be brushing itself down and getting on with things after a bit of a fall. Hopefully there are no injuries that won't mend. There seems to be an awful lot of damage already priced in. Tomorrow we'll hopefully have a much clearer picture much there is.

[bluemango] 26/7/2023 09:13

Chart had a look of bear exhaustion about it, while everybody seemed to have given up on it after two full years of decline from around 160p in July 2021. This thread was all but dead. Obviously Nicola's irrational selling at any price had caused a long term drag pushing it continually down; looks like that's over now.

Meanwhile two very recent, separate broker reports were mentioning 4.5p/4.8p forward dividend; one was the company's nomad Singer. Both will have had guidance from the company. Hence my buying last week, though I acknowledge some are saying they may change strategy on that.

Let's see where it goes from here.

[se81] 26/7/2023 09:07

For me, the current price reflects an absolute sh*t show and thats why its an interesting proposition

I don't see how they can pay a dividend this year but the level of debt doesn't strike me as particularly perilous in the context of historical cashflow/EBITDA

Hopefully we get a detailed update tomorrow so can take a fresh look

[se81] 26/7/2023 08:17

And now an absolute dearth of stock- having to pay over for a few k

[fft] 26/7/2023 08:01

No holdings RNS !?! Did someone forget they had sold 5-10% of a company and did others forget they had bought ? :-)

[fft] 26/7/2023 05:42

Singer are the house brokers and would normally be the first to know of any problems. They are still (in their last note of 12 July after lionfish sale) forecasting EPS of 8p and dividend of 4.5p for 2023.If H1 tomorrow turns out completely different, the broker won't be impressed. Personally, I expect a small miss on EPS and a bigger miss on dividend as debt reduction is increased to impress the market. Debt was only about 19m when IFRS 16 (leases) is removed, so don't see a big problem with that given the broker estimates, unless there are some interesting covenants out there - anyone know ?

[shep22] 25/7/2023 23:19

It is very concerning that the recent large trades are at a price substantially below todays closing (-25%) What is going on?

[se81] 25/7/2023 20:47

Jeez, MM aren’t holding over 10% of the company on their books?!

The forced/disgruntled seller has placed their shares at 20p

[thirty fifty twenty] 25/7/2023 20:29

agree this is percarious time before the TU on Thursday - could go either way. that said there many reasons to sell, but only one reason to buy. i agree that the MM's could have taken the block at 20p then try to encourage buyers at false high prices... but i can imagine they think they could off load 12m shares to sceptical private punters? this i conclude there is a better chance the MM's have an institutional buyer lined up or that the MM's have reasonable confidence that Thurs provides some stabilising news. i notice that KGH has been unusually strong without any CEO declared purchase yet? any chance of some tie up between these two? - very outside chance probably.
RBGP has been a disastrous investment for me so hoping rather than confident that Thurs provides the start of a bottom price.

all IMHO, DYOR + BoL,
RBGP is in my portfolio

[clive7878] 25/7/2023 20:00

12.2 million shares sold at 20p today, the MM must now have plenty of stock to unload.
Are they playing a game now by raising the price to make a real profit in doing this
now to re-sell at 27.5p? , Is it a real upside turning point or just a ploy ?

Or as per Shpere25 posted - Because and if the volume clear out has been finished
which before may have well lowered the price to 23p/24p, this may be why the price has now risen back to 27p, and if the MM raise the price again to 28 / 29p this could encourage more buyers to come in again tomorrow.

But then if there is news on Thursday, does the seller know something that the rest of us is not aware of,
as why would he be selling at 20p ?

Myself I am very sceptical at present, especially without any RNS's.

[lennonsalive] 25/7/2023 18:17

Someone is confident ahead of an update or a leak of good news?

[aleman] 25/7/2023 16:49

65m shares traded in 3 months - 17m today.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[sphere25] 25/7/2023 16:21

Ok....

Abit of monitoring....

In for a trade

Stop at under that low of 24p for a re-assessment but it looks to be pushing on here now. A few buyers come in so IF this buying continues, it could push on here.

That volume clearout is what was needed here to have any chance of breaking that downtrend.

That is not to say, it is a guarantee to break here but clearly these sellers have been having a profound effect.

EDIT:

The dynamic has changed from having alot of stock with the offer at 26p to now having none with the offer at 26.5p and at 27p on the offer. You have to pay through the offer for any small size.

That's enough from me. Only here at random points.

Hope this pushes on for both short and long termers

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 25/7/2023 15:58

16.2m and counting at a high level look in.

Definitely watching closer now for a bounce.

EDIT:
Don't have full data. In and out of market atm. It is interesting volume and could signal a bottom here. It isn't quite pushing on as yet but there might be more delayed prints.

FURTHER EDIT:
Hmmm, still plenty of shares available to buy in the market so these sellers might not fully be cleared here but noteworthy activity this afternoon finally at RBGP


All imo
DYOR

[aleman] 25/7/2023 15:53

Well, small investors seems to think so for this afternoon, anyway.

So how many RNSs are we going to get to explain it all?

[aleman] 25/7/2023 15:51

12m traded today so total volume in 3 months equates to 60% of shares in issue. That is highly unusual. Does that 6m trade plus a load of other big ones signal the end of the persistent selling?

[se81] 25/7/2023 15:31

Huge volume

Highest in entire history

Decent entry point

Also on previous support, divergence on the daily

Is it a coincidence that the update comes on Thurs post volume (or were m’ment aware of seller reaching a conclusion)