Rbg Share Discussion Threads

[nakedmolerat] 14/7/2023 11:19

NF of course

[se81] 13/7/2023 15:53

Banking covenants based on share price- now there's a novel idea- what could possibly go wrong?

Think its safe to say share options will be out the money and reissued (note 28 of the results for some actual details)

Really lazy stuff

I'm sure the bear narrative is better served by who is selling and why....the business is pretty much being priced to completely fail at these levels

[lennonsalive] 13/7/2023 14:18

Seller back

[tomtrudgian] 13/7/2023 13:48

Quite right shep22. Any litigation that goes to trial can result in the plaintiff having to pay the defendant’s costs, as well as their own. Damages against the plaintiff may or may not also be awarded. If successful the plaintiff may be awarded substantial amounts, which may or may not be received.

If that court award is above the still unstated “waterfallR21; limit, and after the Blackmear litigation costs, RBG may get something.

The essential first reason for the RBS’s carefully worded RNS seems to support the share price and thereby the bank’s continuing support. Many media have reported incorrectly that there was cash involved in the “sale”.

The second essential is of course keeping the RBG lawyers. They are the assets. They will be aware of their share options value.

[shep22] 13/7/2023 11:55

Good point, there is a contingent liabilty in relation to adverse costs, the announcement in relation to the Lionfish sale is being economical with the truth.

[scubadiverr] 12/7/2023 20:41

ST in the IC has recommended RBGP again today. Bears will no doubt point out he has been recommending as a buy all the way upto 120p or so, and then down, so his view is irrelevant. I found it a worthwhile read. Make of it what you will...



If you get a paywall try Googling the title

[se81] 12/7/2023 15:03

I think its fair to say theres a lot of guesswork surrounding litigation finance as the terms of each case/portfolio never seem to be disclosed

The bear narrative feels pretty tired here- damages against RBG from litigation they've financed (hmmmm) then the stating of a supposedly unstated waterfall :)

Bigger picture is being missed- good riddance to lionfish which hasn't worked- leave it to the experts- focus on the core businesses

[tomtrudgian] 12/7/2023 13:53

A cleverly worded RNS, but there is no “immediate payment” of &1.07m, or ever will be.

The £1.07m was an inter-company debt owed by Lionfish because RBG had paid their past litigation expenses. These are now being written off so these past expenses will now be charged to RBG profit instead of being held as a RBG reimbursable asset.

This Chartered Accountant and Auditor finds it tortuous to describe a written off debt as being part of the sale consideration. Or further that “it will be used for working capital purposes and to reduce net debt of the group”.

As to the “up to £2m debt, subject to performance conditions”, this was an inter-company “fair value” estimate of what Lionfish would owe RBG if the four now sold cases were all successful. As we now know the cases could not even be litigated to conclusion, successfully or not. So this was a grossly ambitious estimate, and now completely written off.

To be fair I accept that if the four cases are litigated to conclusion, and if then successful there is a possible payout to RBG in future years. The buyers however as principal risk takers get preferential terms, and there is also an unstated minimum £ “waterfallR21; before RBG get anything.

So what’s good? The four unsold cases have finished litigation apparently, so it may be assumed that trials or negotiated settlements will be quite soon.

[se81] 12/7/2023 10:19

From singer today:

RBG has confirmed the sale of LionFish Litigation Finance to Blackmead Infrastructure (a fund managed by Foresight Group). This reduces the Group's exposure to third-party litigation funding commitments. The Group is transferring 4 cases to Blackmead with a net asset value of £4.05m in return for a consideration of £3.07m. The transaction therefore generates a loss on disposal of £0.98m but it removes the ongoing working capital requirements associated with LionFish (estimated at £2.6m). The consideration is made up of an immediate cash payment of £1.07m and an additional payment of up to £2.0m subject to performance conditions. Proceeds will be used for working capital purposes and to reduce net debt. Accordingly, we reduce our current year net debt forecast by £1.07m. The transaction removes an element of uncertainty for the shares and allows management to focus its attention on the strategy to build a high margin, cash-generative legal and professional services group. The shares remain attractively valued on a Dec. ’23 P/E rating of only 3.4x, well below peers. Buy

[riverman77] 12/7/2023 09:49

Yes those are the ones I was talk about and I think you're right they were never part of Lionfish. RBGP certainly interesting just as a punt on these cases now, irrespective of any underlying problems which may be facing the business.

[scubadiverr] 12/7/2023 09:16

If you scroll way down in thread I calculated that I thought the elephantine cases were likely worth c. 86p per share after discounting the headline values. If we say lit fin funders are looking for 2.4 X back on their money then these cases alone could be sold for c. 36p per share. If my assumptions are correct at the current share price we are being paid 6p to hold the companies and receive our share of future earnings.Clearly I'm talking my own book and these assumptions have led to me now holding far more than I should and being considerably underwater

[scubadiverr] 12/7/2023 08:59

If you are thinking of the "elephantine" cases of Shango, Neptune and Mercury, they are old RBL contingent cases from before the advent of Lionfish, so yes, they should be still in the running and could well pay multiples of today's SP, but no, they are unlikely to have ever been ascribed to Lionfish so won't be the retained cases referenced.

[riverman77] 12/7/2023 08:51

Am I right in thinking that the 4 retained cases include the previously flagged large caaes that could potentially be worth more than their entire market cap? If so, you are getting a free option here given the market is ascribing zero value to them.

[dgdg1] 12/7/2023 08:28

Tomtrudgian, what makes you think there is the potential for damages to be awarded against RBG? Litigation claims are generally where someone else is being sued and just have the potential of paying out for the funder, it would be highly unusual for the funder to be at risk of paying damages and surely they would have to disclose this specifically. Have they said anything along these lines?

[tomtrudgian] 12/7/2023 08:07

Simpler yes, but……230; There were 8 outstanding cases, 4 needing further legal expense, and so sold by RBG to avoid this cost and risk. “Cherry picked” for no cash at all, but for cancellation of debts owed by Lionfish to RBG. Would the Lionfish debt have been paid anyway? No money coming to RBG if these 4 cases later become successful either.

The 4 cases retained by RBG need no further legal expense apparently, so presumably are near trial or negotiated settlement. With damages either for or against RPG, remember.

[qs99] 12/7/2023 07:33

Much simpler business now for market to digest IMO....lawyers should IMO also almost always make money in whatever environment if it has its spread of services correctly formed! Cynical I know. But DYOR, expecting this to bounce further..as long as next trading update is still v. solid obviously..DYOR

[lennonsalive] 12/7/2023 07:20

Dead dog bounce, get down shep

[smidge21] 12/7/2023 07:11

yet another nice example of the gains to be had from insider trading !

[tonytyke2] 12/7/2023 07:08

Oh no....not a third dead cat bounce day in a row.

[se81] 12/7/2023 06:07

Lionfish (and any further funding requirements) gone- starting to turn this ship around…

[shep22] 10/7/2023 14:43

Dead cat bounce again.

[its the oxman] 10/7/2023 10:19

Seems oversold big time here. Expecting a serious break upwards on any glimmer of positive news.