Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[waterfall city] 28/3/2022 16:38

I'm wondering where the debt and £50 million cash would sit, with RPG or the Russian subsidiary.

[my retirement fund] 28/3/2022 13:20

Stemis, your assuming transparency! What do you think shareholders are going to do, camp outside a PO Box forwarding address in Guernsey and demand to know what's going on ? This has gone black box now. As such, by default will be a feeding frenzy for the connected parties only.

[cc2014] 28/3/2022 13:15

The debt and bondholders will get paid before the pref holders.

From memory there's about £600m of debt and £250m of pref shares.

[stemis] 28/3/2022 12:42

Article is looking through the lens of ordinary, rather than preference, shareholders and I'd be very surprised if there's anything left for them. Reasonable chance of something for preference shareholders, but how much is impossible to say...

[the monkster] 28/3/2022 12:38

total w/o then

[spectoacc] 28/3/2022 12:15

Yes - won't post it publicly, will message. But a few snippets:

"This doesn’t mean those stakes are entirely worthless. Though shareholders can no longer trade the stock, they will remain on the shareholder register of Raven Property the private company. As such, they will retain voting rights and will be asked to approve the de-listing plan in the coming weeks."

"Once that happens, one of two scenarios will play out. If, by some miracle, peace breaks out in Ukraine and sanctions are rolled back, Raven may choose to keep hold of its assets and play for time. But given the chances that recent events will be reversed, and the fact that it is already “impracticable for the business to continue in its current form”, the only realistic course of events is that Raven divests its business."

"To put it bluntly, the prospects don’t look great. For a start, the shares are now untradeable and risk dilution or being wiped out if cash runs dry. If any value is to be recovered, investors must hope the company’s assets aren’t seized, capital markets and geopolitical normalcy is restored, the rouble maintains a semblance of long-term exchange value and rental income continues to be paid amid Russia’s potential economic collapse.

On top of that, the divestment will need to satisfy sanctioning authorities, and Russian management will need to act as good faith counterparties, despite being cut off from the Raven Property group.

“I can’t think of a more uncertain outlook for a company,” said one person familiar with the board’s thinking."

[stemis] 28/3/2022 11:59

Anyone got access to the article in Investors Chronicle - Raven shareholders down but not (completely) out?

[stemis] 28/3/2022 11:29

I think the next thing we will see from them is the circular regarding the delisting

[zangdook] 19/3/2022 10:34

I wonder what will happen to the joint venture between the company and the directors which saw them offload their now near-worthless stock and the company put in a lot of good cash. Wasn't the stock used to secure a loan from VTB bank? If they call in the loan will that be the end of the JV?

[stemis] 19/3/2022 10:26

I think there are a lot of unanswered questions which hopefully the circular will go some way to address. I don't think it's anything like as clearly a total w/off for prefs as some seem to believe, otherwise management (with the backing of institutions) wouldn't be undertaking this structured transaction. The fact that it is a put option, rather than a straight sale, suggests there is 'some' doubt as to whether the company will need to do it. Management have a lot invested here, so are well motivated to get something out of it...

[keith95] 19/3/2022 10:04

Why would shareholders as per the document released by Raven agree to a total wipeout?


The RNS states:

“ The Circulars will include further information on the Transaction and loan and preference share instruments in RRHCL.

The Directors have confirmed their support for the Transaction and the De-listings. The Company has discussed the De-listings in detail with its major shareholders and expects their support at the relevant meetings.”

Discussions have taken place, with an expectation of agreement. So no agreement has been made… the only thing we know is that discussions have taken place.


If shareholders are wiped out for 0p there is nothing gained by either agreeing or disagreeing … to the put option…

… so its not unreasonable to assume a paltry settlement for equity holders.

That leaves the preference shares out in limbo … I suppose equity holders could vote to shaft preference share holders as a part of the put option, but it’s speculation.

So we don’t know without further information.

So I’m taking the view of possibly something but not much coming back, that would include nothing.

[the monkster] 19/3/2022 09:02

it's a total w/o keith unless im mistaken for both prefs and ords…..of course it doesn't look good.

[keith95] 18/3/2022 23:42

Zangdook,

I fail to see the point also, save that RAV is no longer listed on the LSE …. So why not list on the MOEX?

As far as I can see, the put option effectively wipes out equity holders of RAV.

We also have:


“ Following the exercise of the put option RPG will hold the loan and preference share assets above along with any cash balances. Its principal commitment will be its own preference shares.”

… the “preference share assets above” presumably refer to those created in Prestino Investments to pay off the £670 m debt ….

… but how are RAVP holders to be paid from “cash balances” and how is cash transferred from Prestino to RAV as a shell company?

It doesn’t look good … but we will get clarity at some point.

[m_kerr] 18/3/2022 20:18

i've warned multiple times in the past few weeks that this business is insolvent, fully setting out why. i stand by that, although if they have some SPV's with some residual value, investors may still get a few pennies in the pound (or roubles).

[gfrae] 18/3/2022 15:45

Nobody has considered the exercise period of the Put which the company has bought, surely the Put is the worst case scenario, not necessarily the most likely. Otherwise why would the parties have agreed to it ?
Or maybe it is to convince the authorities that transfer of ownership will happen, whilst simultaneously keeping the option open of not doing so ?

[igbertsponk] 18/3/2022 10:44

Value for the prefs, as that's what the directors mostly own of any likely value. The Ords you can kiss goodbye.

[zangdook] 18/3/2022 10:26

but value for whom?

[igbertsponk] 18/3/2022 10:25

Well, here we are then.
For what it's worth, Igor is a decent guy and very well connected in Russia. he's been part of the team since day one and I suspect has massive loyalty to the rest.
So if anyone can extract some value out of Russia it will be him.

[stemis] 18/3/2022 10:22

I think it would be worthwhile unravelling whether this new company is in North or South Cyprus as the EU does not recognise Northern Cyprus.

I believe it's South Cyprus as the head office seems to be in Limassol

hxxps://www.rrhcyprus.com/contacts/

[stemis] 18/3/2022 10:20

The difficulty with assessing the viability of the RRHCL is knowing the detailed corporate structure of the Group. As it says in the Annual Report

"Other than our St Petersburg office portfolio, each of the secured
facilities sits in a special purpose vehicle (“SPV”) structure to minimise
recourse to the overall portfolio."

So some of these SPVs may fail but others may survive, even if the cash is trapped in the SPV in the short/medium term.

[cc2014] 18/3/2022 10:07

I think it would be worthwhile unravelling whetther this new company is in North or South Cyprus as the EU does not recognise Northern Cyprus.

If I remember correct Russia effectively bailed out Cyprus (or was it Northern Cyprus only???) out when it couldn't raise capital in the 2008/9 financial crisis.

I'm sad to say I would need to do some more research to fully understand it all.

[zangdook] 18/3/2022 09:58

Cyprus as part of the EU must have Russian sanctions coming out of its ears too. So I don't really see the point. It's not as if RAV has some other business it wants to separate from the Russian assets.