Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 11/3/2022 12:24

1knocker - Ukraine wasn't in NATO. Finland is in the EU and voted to join. The Finlandisation of Ukraine was underway. Its irrelevant, Putin wants the Russian Empire back to put his name in the history books.

[gfrae] 11/3/2022 11:45

Talking about the survival or otherwise of the company rather than one's views of world politics.
As outlined above it does not look like Raven will be able to pay the dividend on the Prefs even if it wanted to and could and as the terms on late payment are so draconian and in order for the company to have a chance of survival, is it not likely that the Prefs will be turned into equity somehow ?
There is a precedent, the CULS, were turned into Prefs and Ordinaries.

[1knocker] 11/3/2022 10:14

The problem is that there are no defensible frontiers on a plain. The only (and very effective) mode of defence is repeat to tech the attackers lines of communication.That is why USSR troops with a jumping off point in Poland were a grave threat to us. Ukraine applies in reverse as a threat to Russia, as NATO troops there advance their jumping off point nearly 1000 miles east. Look at an atlas. The eastern border of Ukraine is actually EAST of Moscow.

When the USSR fell, all common sense dictated Finlandising' the eastern block buffer Staes, separating the armies of Russia and NATO, and increasing the safety of both sides.

Now? We have blown it, and the best we can do is to agree both Russian and NATO troops stat out of Ukraine, cede the Russian speaking provinces to Russia (which will save a lot of trouble in Ukraine itself) and provide a land corridor for Russia to Crimea (which provides its only warm water port) and only became part of Ukraine in 1954 because of a quixotic administrative adjustment made by Stalin when they are both parts of the USSR.

The tragedy is that the demands Russia was making (which the USA and Ukraine turned down out of hand) in relation to NATO membership were terms it would have been in our interests to OFFER to Russia.

Geopolitically, China in the 21st century enemy, and Russia a natural ally. Not for the first time, we are half a century out of date, and fighting the wrong war. If you go to Alderney you will find a large harbour built in the late 19th century, at great cost, as an advanced fleet base for the next war against France. we are slow to realise that the international tectonic plates had moved, and that France would be an ally rather than the enemy in the next conflict.

The big winner, very big winer from this totally unnecessary war, which the west has spent 30 years teeing up, is China.

[m_kerr] 11/3/2022 10:10

russia are now discussing seizing assets located in russia (where the corporation has pulled out) with foreign ownership over 25%.

[the monkster] 11/3/2022 09:52

I think the div is the least of our worries here tbh.

[zangdook] 11/3/2022 08:23

It goes right back to Clinton, the policy of treating Russia as a loser and not as an equal.

[spectoacc] 11/3/2022 06:44

"(I agree about the monumental stupidity of pushing Russia, a nascent democracy emerging from long communist dictatorship, into the arms of China which is not its natural ally and which shows no signs of emerging from communist dictatorship. Apart from enabling China, it only encourages authoritarian tendencies in Russia.)"


I'd love to hear your solution. Give him the Sudetenland?

[zangdook] 11/3/2022 01:04

I read this (on page 50) to mean that they are cumulative, but I may be wrong




If all or any part of the Preference Dividend is in arrears, interest shall
accrue on such unpaid sum at the rate of 15 per cent. per annum
from the date upon which such arrears arise until the date of
payment. In the event that the arrears of the Preference Dividend
shall remain unpaid for six months then the interest rate at which
interest will accrue on such arrears will from such time increase to
the rate of 20 per cent. per annum.

--------------------
(I agree about the monumental stupidity of pushing Russia, a nascent democracy emerging from long communist dictatorship, into the arms of China which is not its natural ally and which shows no signs of emerging from communist dictatorship. Apart from enabling China, it only encourages authoritarian tendencies in Russia.)

[1knocker] 10/3/2022 23:17

Zangdook, the prefs are not cumulative are they? I have not checked, but Think a missed div is gone for good.

I am sure we will all give ourselves (the USA and its vassals I mean) pat on the back when everything worthwhile in Russia is owned by China and Russia with all the natural resources a Chinaman has ever dreamed of is firmly under China's thumb. Thirty years of western hubris and arrogance laid the foundations for the present disastrous state of affairs.

[williamcooper104] 10/3/2022 17:31

Agreed - sanctions are here until Putin goes - not until the Ukrainian war ends (though possible they get scaled back a bit if that happens) It's bye bye Russian economy and back to the USSR; with Putin oligarchs and the new Chinese colonial masters getting what economic activity there is So this is likely to go into admin and then be bought out by Russian/Chinese money for very little; most likely with Russian banks rolling/advancing loans to new owners

[hpcg] 10/3/2022 17:22

Sanctions are short term to hit logistics, medium term to hit production for this war, and long term to hit rearmament. As Spectoacc says, sanctions work to limit the capability of those sanctioned and do so effectively. They won't stop the invasion because probably nothing will (perhaps the severe military losses that appear to be happening). Any investor whose thesis is that sanctions will be removed because they don't like them is away with the fairies.

[zangdook] 10/3/2022 10:21

It's a bit hard to invest for the long term if you have to dump stocks every time a war is started by the country the company operates in. If you held US stocks you'd be in and out like something obscene - if you managed to find a peaceful moment to be in. The UK is bad enough. I suppose you could invest in China but that brings its own moral questions. For me the issue is more the company than the country - best avoid the war profiteers who really drive this sort of thing; the arms manufacturers and military suppliers. I have no qualms with Raven, but to each his own.

[williamcooper104] 10/3/2022 10:05

To be fair to RAV it's, AFAIK, got no oligarch links and is thus one of the cleanest Russian companies; but a clean bankrupt company isn't very interesting

[williamcooper104] 10/3/2022 10:02

Indeed; but they'll credit bid it

[cc2014] 10/3/2022 09:57

Do some people not see the moral issue here?

Investing in Russia whilst the Russian army goes around bombing civilians, committing war crimes and dislocating millions of people.

Everyone has to play their part. JRS for example is clearly worth more than the NAV as most of the investments have been valued at zero.

However, by investing in Russia you are assisting Putin and affecting the lifes of 43 million people in Ukraine.


For those were already invested in Russia as of 2 weeks ago, I see it as reasonable to be able to choose when you sell your shares, but new investments no.

[bench2] 10/3/2022 09:21

Latest JRS NAV is 38.6p , share price now 135p up from low of 85p , some must believe war will be over and Moscow SE will re-open .

[montyhedge] 10/3/2022 09:16

Yes see VTB opening accounts in Russia, yuan accounts offering 8%, Chinese closer to Russia. Raven would be perfect for a Chinese property company.

[bench2] 10/3/2022 09:12

Another useful barometer to watch is the daily NAV and share price of JRS ... a currently ungeared Investment Trust 100% invested in large cap Russian equities . The share price is up 12% today well in excess of the written down value of the portfolio which from memory is about 42p per share ( down from 900p last year ) . Hope springs eternal

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 23:21

You are in compliance with your loan to value covenants until they are tested, and when they are next tested they won't be complaint; won't take much to trip LTV covenants and the European amortising loans likely have debt service covenants The rubble loan caps will likely be dependent upon Russian bank counter parties to pay out on them Yep, if Putin is couped/suicided quickly then things could rebound quickly, but if that doesn't happen very hard to see how this survives Most REITs carry debt of 20-40 LTV - as they all blew up with 60 plus LTVs in the credit crunch; the leverage was too high here before anyone even mentioned Ukraine

[keith95] 09/3/2022 22:54

"The Group remains in compliance with all of its banking covenants. At the end of 2021, rouble debt accounted for 64% of secured facilities and euro 36%. The Group's rouble debt facilities are hedged with interest rate caps over the term of the loans, with a weighted average term to maturity of 2.4 years from 1 January 2022 on those caps, protecting the Group from the recent Central Bank of Russia rate hike."

"Raven Property Group Limited was founded in 2005 to invest in class A warehouse complexes in Russia and lease to Russian and International tenants."

If shops are closed stuff will still be stored in warehouses .... with bills owed ..


.. a lot of panic, all depends upon the duration of the war .... and may this war crime end quickly .....

.... 32p to 9p on RAV?

I would have thought a bigger drop was on the cards more like 32p to 3.5p as has happened with Poly and Evraz.

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 18:01

Looks like all the debt is recourse/hold co rather than asset specific/non-recourse So throwing keys on an asset by asset basis doesn't work Nuts - US REITs if they are highly levered usually have non-recourse asset debt with pref shares being the only hold-co/recourse debt High levels of full recourse leverage is really really stupid, how this went into this crisis with 75 percent recourse leverage is beyond me Being balance sheet insolvent might be ok as lenders may not want to pull the plug; but cashflow insolvent is much harder to negotiate away

[williamcooper104] 09/3/2022 17:41

Yep there's often force majure provisions in swap ISDAs but not in LMA loan agreements The swaps will be in the money for RAV and out of money for swap counter party so would be a windfall for them if they can cancel the swaps Often the swap CP will be a bank creditor so they probably won't play games as will only impair their own recoveries