Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[rayg5] 10/11/2021 10:16

It's a widespread City misconception that Russia is risky. With its energy dominance, how risky in truth? I see no better yield vs risk out there. Let these British fools believe what they want.

[igbertsponk] 10/11/2021 08:54

I wish this would stop going up, I want to add shortly!

[owenski] 10/11/2021 08:25

My Retirement Fund - spot on, UK is run by self serving fools all built on the Brexit lie.

[mister md] 10/11/2021 08:22

CC2014 - but at 150p this would still be yielding 8% wouldn't it ? Would be hard to find better returns elsewhere and best to keep this in a well-balanced portfolio imho

[my retirement fund] 09/11/2021 19:02

Jeez I'll be breaking even at this rate, whats going on? Is Russia's Putin suddenly looking a lot more credible than Boris the clowns UK now that its a post basket Brexit Britain being run by its lying cheating negligent and highly incompetent pro Brexit clown and his laughable bunch of bent cronies?

[cc2014] 09/11/2021 15:54

I'm not so sure the overhang is that large now Kenny. The share price seems to be going up on small volume.

That's not to say we won't hit 130p or whatever and some holder with a million shares appears and wants out.

I'm in the position as many on here. Nothing much to think about with the share price at 125p. It's still crazy low. When it reaches 150p I'll have to think about it a bit harder. I suspect though it will have to get to 165p to tempt me to sell. After all I'd have to find a new home for the proceeds which is as good and that would be challenging.

[montyhedge] 09/11/2021 12:47

I been in Raven since 2011 never missed a payment, I think 2013 they were trading at 167p. Still cheap at today's price.

[gfrae] 09/11/2021 12:36

They are 125.2 bid and 125.99 offered at the moment.
Ordinaries appear to be lagging.

[kenny] 09/11/2021 11:44

Sellers are now active at this level. I suspect there is still a large overhang of shares from the placing. Perhaps the motivation for short term holders is: what will the price move down to after it goes ex-div on the 18 November if sellers place a large number of shares in the market.

Fortunately, I am a long-term holder prepared to ride out gyrations but aware there are a lot of sellers waiting in the wings. My primary focus remains on the ability of the company to keep paying the quarterly coupon.

[cwa1] 08/11/2021 16:01

Yes, it is

[jaf111] 08/11/2021 15:58

Surely going xd Thursday week so another 3p about to be collected......

[gfrae] 04/11/2021 16:36

Edison and one other has extensive research publicly available. Kenny, I hope you don't mind but I have posted your repot on the Ordinary chat page too.

[irish_neris] 04/11/2021 10:56

Would anyone know how many analyst's cover Raven for reports. I know someone has linked reports from 1 analyst before.

[gfrae] 03/11/2021 10:44

Thanks Kenny for the interesting and encouraging report.
Though, Russian interest rate rises should have no impact on the P and L, as they say they are fully hedged with interest rate derivatives for at least the next 2.5 years.

[kenny] 03/11/2021 00:12

CBRE has issued, last Friday, a research report for Q3 2021 which you can download and read here:



Below are a few extracts:

"In the Moscow region, weighted average base rent exceeded RUB 5,000 per sq m per
year for the first time ever. Compared to Q2 2021, rates increased by 14% and by 26%
compared to the end of 2020."

"CBRE expects further growth in rental rates, but at a more moderate pace by the end of 2021, the average base rent may reach RUB 5,100 per sq m per year."

"There is a strong shortage of vacant space on the warehouse market. At the end of Q3 2021, the vacancy rate dropped to 0.5% (71,743 sq m) – the lowest in the past decade."
=======================================================================

Amazing to think that warehouse rents have increased by 14% in one quarter and by 26% in the first nine months of 2021 albeit, for context, they have only this year just exceeded 2013/14 levels.

As I think I have mentioned before, large increases in Russian interest rates will hit the P&L immediately, whereas these increases in rents will only accrue to the P&L as current leases come up for renewal over the next 3-4 years. Last reported as 4.1 years being the weighted average term to maturity. However, the major takeaway from developments in 2021 is that the coupon on RAVP is very secure as far into the future as can be predicted - even if rents do not increase further in subsequent years.

[montyhedge] 01/11/2021 15:11

140p normal level.

[cwa1] 01/11/2021 11:41

Nice to see some gentle improvement in the SP

[cc2014] 27/10/2021 12:34

Good to see another couple of pence on the price over the last couple of days.

Still 10% running yield at 120p and I await the next move up after consolidation here.

[gfrae] 26/10/2021 14:33

On another point relative to Russian interest rate costs I note that they are fully hedged, therefore until 2024 Russian rate rise costs will be fully offset by derivative gains.
As mentioned previously with 38% of their debt in Euros which has significantly devalued will also be beneficial.
Raven for a change appears to be the right way in it's assets and in it's liabilities.
The next NAV calculation is likely to be very significantly above 50p.

[gfrae] 26/10/2021 13:33

Very good point Kenny and catsick about the Euro fall vs Rouble which will further increase NAV.

[catsick] 26/10/2021 12:23

A third of the debt is in euros so not only are rates still in the gutter but has weakened a lot vs the rouble add that to the higher rent and highr occupancy and higher valuations and the next set of results will be mind blowing

[kenny] 26/10/2021 11:48

Agreed gfrae and perhaps even higher because the Euro has weakened against Sterling. However, the problem with exchange rates, especially the rouble, is that they can swing all over the place over a few short months.

[gfrae] 26/10/2021 10:23

OK Kenny, using 100.2 at Yesterdays exchange rate the NAV was 53.25p before the release of the accounting provision. Using the exchange rate as of now of 95.6 NAV equals 53.9p plus the 0.5p equals 54.4p
Unless the BofE raises rates I only see NAV going one way.

[kenny] 25/10/2021 16:12

In terms of the exchange rates used for income, the accounts state the following:

"These are the average rates for the six months ended 30 June 2020 and 2021, which are used unless this does not approximate the rates ruling at the dates of the relevant transactions in which case the item of income or expenditure is translated at the transaction date rate."

If we take the Edison methodology, that is 52.55 plus 0.5p for the release of accounting provisions equals 53.05p NAV.