Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[kenny] 23/10/2021 00:59

Pundits are predicting another 0.5% rise in December as the "baseline scenario". That would take the central bank rate from today's 7.5% to 8%. Starting to get a bit scary?! Quite a steep rise from last year's historic low of 4.25% - which seems a lifetime away.

[igbertsponk] 22/10/2021 13:28

Gradually tipping up as fears over the rest of the market getting a tad toppy emerge... Russia s safe haven, and everyone wants their gas!

[garycook] 22/10/2021 11:32

Russia interest rates rise to 7.5%,and possible rate hikes at the next meeting !

[kenny] 22/10/2021 11:32

The Bank of Russia increases the key rate by 75 b.p. to 7.50% p.a.

[kenny] 22/10/2021 11:21

Don't forget there is still a large overhang of shares from the placing.

[montyhedge] 22/10/2021 09:43

Back to the good old days 140p coming.

[kenny] 21/10/2021 00:46

Since my post yesterday, I have managed to obtain a copy of the JLL warehouse report for Q3 2021.

So it is one quarter further on than the CBRE H1 2021 report linked above.

Unfortunately it is not available in English but a google translation for part is:

"Growth in construction costs and growing demand from side of online retailers is leading to a gradual increase in rental rates. Since early 2021 average rates in class A increased by 22%. We predict that rental rates in class A will reach values of 5.2 thousand rubles per sq. m per year by the end of the year."

CBRE predicted 4,500 to 4,600 RUB by year end and now one quarter on, JLL is predicting 5,200 by year end.

Further extracts from the JLL report are:

“According to the results of Q3 2021, the vacancy rate fell to 1.2% (41 thousand sq. M in absolute terms), reaching the minimum value for the last eight years. At the moment, only eight properties have space.”
“The main demand is represented by segment companies e-commerce, which at the end of the 3rd quarter 2021 increased their share in the structure of transactions up to a record 54%.”

Looks like it took a boom in online shopping caused by Covid for Russian warehouse rents to regain their 2013/14 levels. This despite the Russian economy, during Covid, being more open than any other part of the World and currently suffering the second worse death rate. Also looks more and more like an inflection point.

[riskvsreward] 20/10/2021 18:44

I have over 10% of my sipp invested in this. Will be very happy to reinvest divs to get a compound 10% return if price stays the same. If also get some price appreciation then ice on cake.

[gfrae] 20/10/2021 17:46

Thanks for that report Kenny. I am pretty sure the Rouble contracts have an inflation adjustment in them, so they should easily recoup any loss due to rising rates.
Moreover, NAV will rise making the company much safer to invest in.

[kenny] 20/10/2021 12:09

A very bullish H1 2021 report from CBRE:

(You may have to register to download the report, but registration is free)

This is currently the most bullish report out there and others are more conservative. Note the view on rising rents - plus 6.5% in the first half - and continuing to rise. Also, constructions costs have shot up so, other than build to suit, no one is building warehouses in Moscow speculatively. Other reports talk of 5% H1 rental increases and more modest moves to year end, very sharp increases in building material costs and lack of labour due to Covid and non-return of foreign workers.

It follows this has to resolve itself in one of two ways in order for it to become economic to build new warehouses. Either building materials come down in price or existing warehouse rents continue to rise (or a combination of the two).

Now the bad news. The interest rate rises in Russia along with those to come, probably wipe out the financial benefit of rental rises in H1 2021. Indeed, the interest rate rises are an immediate additional cost whereas the rental rises only feed into income as leases expire over the next few years, albeit the move in occupancy from 93% to 100% will help.

On balance, very positive for RAVP holders who decide to hold long term because interest rates will eventually come down and in the interim rents and asset values are likely to appreciate. Furthermore, warehouse rents have only now recovered to 2014 levels e.g. pre-Ukraine invasion levels, so have plenty of scope to keep rising.

As a holder since 2014 one hopes this is, finally, an inflection point but being wary of calling an inflection point, I am prepared to be disappointed!

[zangdook] 20/10/2021 03:18

Trades are only "classified" as buys or sells by third party observers like advfn, to satisfy mug punters' curiosity. It's nothing to do with market makers, though they may fiddle with quoted prices to create a particular impression.

[pogue] 19/10/2021 23:29

Inflation hasn't got going yet this is the foothills. Do some research on what happens in a high inflation environment. It will save you a lot of money.

[deadly] 19/10/2021 22:13

So much for inflation not going to make RAVP attractive....is at highest now for months.

[rahosi] 19/10/2021 18:19

Further to Monty's comment - Lots of buying today, I did a test sell at 16:10.

They offered to buy at 119.36 (This is the acid test of the true market pricing).

Notified trades are classified as either a sale or purchase purely depending on which side of the MID-POINT of the indicated BID & OFFER prices the traded price is.

If a trade is exactly on the mid-point it is classified neither as a BUY or SALE.

This is 'smoke & mirrors' by the MMs. (one of many....) It can be used to disguise both Purchases & Sales.

[montyhedge] 19/10/2021 16:38

No sales today 85912 traded all buys. Look at the marks.

[rahosi] 19/10/2021 16:11

Those under 120 are sales not purchases.

[gfrae] 19/10/2021 14:47

Can't be much, the volume is only 75,000 odd.

[montyhedge] 19/10/2021 14:42

Lot of buying today, could we go back to 140p coming weeks. That's where it use to be.

[zangdook] 19/10/2021 12:59

Well done. All brokers are annoying but some are much worse than others and it's inspiring to see someone actually taking the plunge and moving.

[rahosi] 19/10/2021 12:35

Have instigated my move from HSBC ID to my other broker - XO.
There are zero charges for my move as HSBC are in the process of changing their T&Cs & I have notified HSBC that I do not accept their new T&Cs.

[jong] 18/10/2021 21:45

I'm also with Halifax SD and they are much the same. Always late with THRL and a few others but never missed payments and good customer support in general.

[rahosi] 18/10/2021 10:49

JonG, Why is HSBC late paying nearly every RAVP dividend? Why is HSBC late paying nearly EVERY dividend I am due. (NUMEROUS complaints with waffle responses).

Also see HOLTS 1160 & 1177, ramellous 1161, CWA1 1163, montyhedge 1165, pauldaviesuk 1167, Santar 1168. There is a pattern.

HSBC have sent me 'Important changes to the HSBC InvestDirect Sharedealing and
Investment Terms and Conditions (the “Terms”)
&
If we do not hear from you before 26 November 2021 about the changes, we will be entitled to assume you accept the changes and consent to the updated Terms. You have the right to close your Account(s) with us at any time by calling us on the number below. There will be no charge for closing your Account(s) if you inform us that you wish to do so before 26 November 2021.

My family has been with 'Midland Bank' since before WW2. This seems like an opportunity to leave.

[pogue] 18/10/2021 10:29

Inflation maybe good for the balance sheet but RAVP is held for the interest rate inflation is not going to make it attractive. Seems the 'experts' are beginning to believe that inflation will now not be temporary so BOE talking about interest rate rises. I mean who would have predicted that, oh yes I did long time ago as many others did in other forums pointing to the blatantly obvious inflationary environment that has been brewing due to massive money printing just waiting a spark which has been provided by covid. Anyway beware inflation it is not your friend in fixed interest.

[horndean eagle] 18/10/2021 07:24

There is obviously the offset of leases tied to indexation. I think they are pretty standard in RAVP leases

[gfrae] 17/10/2021 23:16

Inflation may not be good for Rav earnings,but it is good for NAV.