Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[hindsight] 04/1/2019 16:53

Personally been adding to other Prefs lately as think the value here has diminished due to the others falling alot more

[owenski] 04/1/2019 16:06

Interesting to see this on the move again, meanwhile I'll get yet another divi soon.

[igbertsponk] 04/1/2019 09:12

Another wee tickup as the flight to boring returns continues.

[kenny] 04/1/2019 01:53

Almost all preference shares quoted on the LSE rose on Thursday as worries of a big economic slowdown appear to be coming to fruition.

Limited talk of deflation, currently, but lots of talk of that big economic slowdown now becoming a fact. Now being suggested that the Fed will be on hold in 2019 and will reduce (yes, reduce) current interest rates early in 2020.

Ordinary shares do not look that attractive, if future earnings are static or falling. The fall in share values in 2018, at about 12%, looks severe but everyone ignores the fact they zoomed up about 25% in 2017. In that context, the fall has not even started!

I think fixed income will become very valuable over the next 3 years – perhaps a lot longer - so resist the temptation to cash in on future capital gains. China’s economic imbalances could develop into something very serious that takes a decade or more to resolve.

[igbertsponk] 03/1/2019 09:35

Lot of movement on one tiny buy!

[igbertsponk] 03/1/2019 08:49

Happy New Year tickup (though not of course Russian Christmas yet).

[kenny] 03/1/2019 02:08

"The specter of deflation is haunting risk markets"
hxxp://www.atimes.com/article/the-specter-of-deflation-is-haunting-risk-markets/

[renewed1] 23/12/2018 10:18

Thanks for your posts on here Kenny and happy and prosperous new year to you.

[kenny] 22/12/2018 01:54

With the Fed and ECB now engaged in QT (Quotative Tightening), I think we are going to be hearing a lot about the threat of deflation.

The whole World is so highly indebted and that combined with deflation possibly being on the horizon, means it is hard to imagine that interest rates will rise much from here.

Lots of talk that the Fed made a mistake raising rates this week. Also the two rate rises the Fed have penciled in for 2019, are being frowned upon.

Indeed, there is also talk that in 2019 the Fed will not only be unable to raise interest rates but will have to slow or pause it’s $50b per month QT. World money growth has collapsed to Lehman era levels.

It appears to be a bit early for deflation to be flagged up as a threat to us individual investors but I imagine that quite a few articles will appear in the next few weeks. Here is one I found today after a bit of searching:
hxxps://www.elliottwave.com/European-Markets/Europe-Embarks-on-Deflation

Looks like a secure high yield may be the place to invest – as I suggested some weeks ago.

[kenny] 19/12/2018 23:18

An article from yesterday which I think is worth a read:

"Credit markets signal recession in early 2019 as central banks keep tightening"

[igbertsponk] 12/12/2018 16:15

Quality assets showing.

[kenny] 06/12/2018 13:40

The news of a high yielding property purchase has been totally lost in the market's current volitility. This transaction alone adds about £3.5m per annum to the cover on the preference coupon.

[igbertsponk] 05/12/2018 08:53

13.7% yield sounds good. Picking up bargains!

5 December 2018

Raven Property Group Limited ("Raven" or the "Company")

Acquisition

The Board of Raven is pleased to announce that a subsidiary of the Company has entered into a conditional agreement ('the Agreement") for the acquisition of a completed warehouse in Nizhny Novgorod, a city 400 km east of Moscow, together with 21.5ha of adjacent land from a fund managed by Amstar. The warehouse complex of 64,375sqm is fully let with a weighted average unexpired lease term of 8.4 years, the majority of space let to ZAO "X5 Nedvizhimost". Consideration for the acquisition is Roubles 2.8 billion with expected annual income of Roubles 347 million giving an initial yield of 13.7% on the completed asset. The acquisition is subject to the satisfaction of certain escrow arrangements.

Glyn Hirsch, Chief Executive of Raven said: "We are delighted to acquire this quality asset on a very attractive yield"

[cwa1] 05/12/2018 08:45

Raven Property Group Limited ("Raven" or the "Company")



Acquisition



The Board of Raven is pleased to announce that a subsidiary of the Company has entered into a conditional agreement ('the Agreement") for the acquisition of a completed warehouse in Nizhny Novgorod, a city 400 km east of Moscow, together with 21.5ha of adjacent land from a fund managed by Amstar. The warehouse complex of 64,375sqm is fully let with a weighted average unexpired lease term of 8.4 years, the majority of space let to ZAO "X5 Nedvizhimost". Consideration for the acquisition is Roubles 2.8 billion with expected annual income of Roubles 347 million giving an initial yield of 13.7% on the completed asset. The acquisition is subject to the satisfaction of certain escrow arrangements.



Glyn Hirsch, Chief Executive of Raven said: "We are delighted to acquire this quality asset on a very attractive yield"

[igbertsponk] 04/12/2018 12:01

Pushkino filling up

[igbertsponk] 04/12/2018 11:57

No shops please! Surely even in Russia retail is in decline.

[kenny] 04/12/2018 11:47

The company is negotiating to buy a warehouse in the Moscow region. If this goes through, it would be a big purchase. This transaction would increase Net Operating Income and therefore provide yet more security for the preference classes coupon.

[igbertsponk] 29/11/2018 17:37

Good to see a wee bounce back

[kenny] 29/11/2018 11:51

Since the beginning of September, the ordinaries are up 16% while RAVP is down 8%.
Strange, because if the ordinaries, RAV, are viewed as a good investment then RAVP is an even more secure investment.

In that period the ruble has fallen materially and yet the ordinaries have risen. Also, I predict the results to 31.12.18 will show another large foreign currency loss albeit I think lettings and a fall in the vacancy rate will surprise on the upside. More income adds to the security of the preference coupon and foreign currency losses only impact the value of the ordinaries NAV. Also, any “trouble”; ahead will be reflected in a cut in the level of the ordinary dividend alone.

None of the large holders of RAVP have reduced their holdings so I can only assume that it must be individual investors who look at the headlines about Russia and sell.

[zangdook] 26/11/2018 12:49

Fatty Poroshenko's getting desperate about his polls, that's all.

[igbertsponk] 26/11/2018 12:19

Just naval bumper cars, nothing to get excited about.

[11_percent] 26/11/2018 11:27

More Russia tension with Ukraine...….could affect the price.

[cwa1] 08/11/2018 07:33

The Directors of the Company confirm that the quarterly payment of the preference dividend in respect of the preference shares of 1p each with ticker RAVP (the "Preference Shares") will be made, in accordance with their terms, on 31 December 2018 in respect of the period from 30 September 2018 to (but excluding) 31 December 2018. The record date for the payment of the preference dividend for the Preference Shares is 16 November 2018 with an ex-dividend date of 15 November 2018.

[kenny] 20/10/2018 02:26

Some pretty meaty buying in RAVP on Friday but also in almost all UK preference shares. Looks like some institutional buying across the preference share sector.

Perhaps the logic is that ordinary shares have already priced in all the good news likely coming in the next 18 months e.g. positive results for the fourth quarter of 2018 and likely growth in profits for the whole of 2019. Factor in the real fears of the China tariff dispute not getting resolved (the negative effects of tariffs is already showing in some company’s outlook statements) together with China’s economy slowing materially and you have a situation where shares might move sideways if not down for the next two years.

The above is the line that I heard on Bloomberg Thursday and repeated Friday. Most financial market coverage on Bloomberg and CNBC is rubbish and not worth watching but occasionally they do talk about what the markets may do over more than the next hour and their reasoning for that longer-term outlook.

Where then to invest for the next two years when Treasuries are going to be moving downward as interest rates continue to rise between here and the end of 2019 – to reach a plateau of perhaps somewhere in the region of 3.25% to 3.5%. The answer may be high yield where the income is secure - on the basis that institutional funds do not trust ordinary shares to continue producing the high returns of 2017 and 2018 to date, let alone the high returns of previous years since 2009.

If this theory proves correct, then preference shares and any other high yield fixed income securities may have quite some way to go over the next two years - as more investors find that ordinary shares are now only going sideways or down.

We may be near the beginning of a point in time where the biggest part of total return comes from yield rather than share appreciation, ironically, at a time when interest rates are rising.