Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[kenny] 30/8/2019 10:30

I have been reviewing the latest Edison report issued on 28 August. Of particular interest to me are the forecasts for 2020 and 2021 - see the bottom of page 5 for the figures and the top of page 6 for the assumptions used. Also see page 8 for the forecast results in IFRS format. Basically, it indicates that the coupon on the preference is secure even though they project that the high 'dividends' of 3p per annum will continue to be paid on the ordinaires, albeit that cost is mitigated by the fact there are now 14.8% less ordinaries in issue. Overall, it appears to me that given the conservative nature of the assumptions used in the forecasts, I can almost go to sleep(!) for the next two and a half years - at a minimum - and just keep collecting the quarterly dividends. Really worth looking at the conservative nature of the assumptions made and coming to your own conclusions. Please DYOR and note this is not a recommendation, not least because RAVP is really only for very long term money. In any event, there is currently an overhang of ex-Woodford shares which could take some time to be absorbed by buyers.

[bench2] 27/8/2019 13:26

You can buy the pref at just under 132p today (ex 3p qtly div payable 30 Sept) , a flat yield of 9% after comm .

[montyhedge] 27/8/2019 07:51

Woodford must be in trouble if sold his jewel in the crown the 12% pref.

[cwa1] 27/8/2019 07:11

Morning Just had a glance at this morning's RAV results and one of the bits that jumped out was this paragraph... There has also been a significant change in our shareholder register following the well publicised events at Woodford Investment Management ("WIM"). The opportunity to purchase the WIM ordinary shares for cancellation at a significant discount to net asset value was too good to miss and on a proforma basis, would result in a further 5p increase in net asset value per share. It is disappointing to see one of our longest standing supporters withdraw but life goes on. The WIM holding of convertible and irredeemable preference shares were placed with over 35 institutions. Excellent to see them placed and nicely widespread too.

[igbertsponk] 27/8/2019 06:58

The Woodford holdings in Prefs and Convertibles still showing on the Raven website. Both shown as at 30th June. Not too many Prefs (8%) but 42% of the Convertibles.

[zangdook] 27/8/2019 06:50

thanks, I must have skipped that bit. I suppose you don't have to declare changes in holdings of prefs as they don't carry voting rights? I wonder if that's a backdoor for building a quiet stake in a company by acquiring convertibles.

[igbertsponk] 27/8/2019 06:34

Not so. Woodford seems to be out totally:"The WIM holding of convertible and irredeemable preference shares were placed with over 35 institutions."

[zangdook] 27/8/2019 06:30

I don't know why they say he's no longer a stakeholder, he still has gazillions of prefs and convertible prefs.

[igbertsponk] 27/8/2019 06:22

Good results today.Valuations upDebt being migrated to RoublesLettings goodWoodford rightfully thanked but gone. Without him none of us would have been able to make the huge gains we have done as there would have been no Raven.

[kenny] 26/8/2019 08:03

Interim results are due tomorrow and likely to confirm the good news on NAV. Normally, that might lead to a re-rating of shares in RAVP. However, with some of the ex-Woodford holding of RAVP still over-hanging the market, I do not anticipate any increase until those shares find firm holders. Of greater interest to holders who intend to hold for the long term, like myself, will be information about a) lettings and, b) the trend in rents.

[kenny] 26/8/2019 07:31

pogue - ultimately we must all make our own decisions and I do not wish to be responsible for anyone else's portfolio decisions. Good luck whatever you decide.

[pogue] 26/8/2019 06:59

Actually I am doing very similar to that Kenny i started investing in a goldmine late last year when trends started becoming obvious in the world economy. Have been selling shares and pouring money in there and it has doubled in price I am now looking at my Prefs and bonds to see which ones I will keep and RAV is under consideration. I am not seeing it's defensive qualities being too strong in the scenario we facing and you are not giving me any coherent reasons to believe it is.

[kenny] 26/8/2019 04:29

Also, the old quote is, stocks can go down as well as up. The question for RAVP holders is whether the coupon is safe.

[kenny] 26/8/2019 03:10

If you think a global recession is going to be so dire, then the best course of action for you is to sell all your shares, bonds and property. Rent a property to live in and keep your funds in cash with various deposit takers - spread in order to provide protection because a number of banks are bound to flounder in a time of ultra low or negative interest rates caused by the depression you forecast.

[bonnard] 25/8/2019 21:26

On a positive note, one ruble is worth 12.5p. Twelve months ago it was worth 11.5p. So the rents paid are now worth about 8% more in GBP than they were last year.

[pogue] 25/8/2019 20:09

Is it possible Russia remains the only country in the world to avoid a global recession? I am not convinced on that one. The company does not need to default for the Prefs to drop in price they go up and down as Russia rises and falls in world politics never mind when the whole world moves.

[kenny] 25/8/2019 18:30

In terms of warehouse demand, it is rising in Russia. Also, Russia has great scope to reduce interest rates from the current 7.25% level. In relation to a global turn down, this has already started. However, with RAVP bear in mind you are not invested in the ordinaries but a preference class. If things get really ugly with the global economy, there are two protections for RAVP holders, namely, a) the strong asset backing, any reduction of NAV hits the ordinaries and, b) the coupon on the pref's is protected by the fact that the company could cancel "dividends" on the ordinaries and this would provide a large backup source of funds to ensure the coupon on the pref's continues unabated.

[zangdook] 25/8/2019 16:06

Woodford's shares were bought back and cancelled. If you compare with Hambro's last holdings RNS on 1 Aug they've actually reduced their holding slightly but their percentage has increased with the cancellation of the bought back Woodford & Invesco shares.

[pogue] 25/8/2019 13:41

Have you considered that the majority of investors are worried about a global turn down due to trade wars? Have you considered what that may do to warehouse demand? Something I am thinking very hard about just now.

[kenny] 23/8/2019 13:40

Amazing that some people are selling their RAVP when the world looks to be set for another decade of very low interest rates. It would follow that high yeild is going to become expensive. For example, see this article: hTTps://www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/investment-themes-and-strategy/adjusting-to-a-lower-for-longer-rate-environment

[igbertsponk] 23/8/2019 12:02

Hambro picking up some of the Woodford bargain Ords I see.

[igbertsponk] 23/8/2019 09:55

Hambro picking up some of the Woodford bargain Ords I see.

[owenski] 21/8/2019 20:28

Divi comes round soon enough, top up again, @9% yield

[energiser01] 21/8/2019 15:37

Woodford position now less than 5%, dyor etc, etc.... 7. Total positions of person(s) subject to the notification obligation % of voting rights attached to shares (total of 8. A) % of voting rights through financial instruments (total of 8.B 1 + 8.B 2) Total of both in % (8.A + 8.B) Total number of voting rights of issuervii Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached Less than 5% Less than 5% 600,494,050 Position of previous notification (if applicable) 13.17% 13.17%

[kenny] 21/8/2019 12:30

What strange times we live in: "Russian Oil Exports to U.S. Soar to 6-Year High" hTTps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/21/russian-oil-exports-to-us-soar-to-6-year-high-a66951