Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 12/1/2021 10:17

It's hard to read Monty. Someone has been selling for the last 2 months (whilst I've been watching) in the fashion you mention but they aren't there every day and they don't usually do 50k's and they are happy enough to let the price rise a little if they get some decent volume.

I assume Invesco. The 50k from last night and the 25k today do look a little different though. Hard to read as all the prefs are getting some slight selling pressure as the US 10 year treasury yields is rising fast

[montyhedge] 11/1/2021 19:42

Another 50,000 seller after hours, looks like a market maker working the sell order all day, then when gone book the bargain.That's my view, wonder who the seller is.

[cc2014] 08/1/2021 12:32

As of September Invessco held 63.6m of the prefs (29.4% of the total).

Who knows how many they have shifted?

[montyhedge] 08/1/2021 11:58

Someone dripping these pref into the market, seems at any price. I have not seen this low since 2008 financial crash. But at least always paid out.

[hindsight] 07/1/2021 18:52

If use the scientific big mac algo, then rouble is 50% undervalued vs euro. That all right then

[igbertsponk] 07/1/2021 17:30

OOPS - i don't post here

[gfrae] 07/1/2021 17:22

I don't agree with you crm. You are buying property assets here at half price in an economy which might weather the current crisis better than most.
In my view if the London stock market only values the shares at this level they should seek a buyer for the whole company at somewhere around NAV.
It should not be too difficult warehouses are in demand and there is plenty of cash around.

[tradertrev] 07/1/2021 16:51

Don't forget it has annual rent escalation built into its leases. They won't overcome this year's devaluation but in more normal years they roughly do.

[crm114] 07/1/2021 16:15

Clearly, you would have to be as mad as a march hare to bet the kitchen sink on this one and we are not being paid 10+% for a good nights sleep. The bottom line here seems to be ( because of their substantial euro denominated debt)whether or not RAV can grow its revenues faster than the Rouble is depreciating .

A second concern is why Invesco couldn't find another investment firm to offload their shares to. Has Rav plundered unfortunate investors a few too many times ?

Fingers crossed

[eeza] 06/1/2021 09:20

No worries, mont - as long as the 3p keeps dropping into your satchel.

[montyhedge] 06/1/2021 09:08

Sellers continue.

[gfrae] 04/1/2021 16:33

It could be someone else.

[igbertsponk] 04/1/2021 15:37

Just a matter of time. The lists for both Ords and Prefs were last updated in October. Even if the insitutions don't report their cahnge, the company can see the changes in it's share registers and they write to the holders demanding to know the beneficial owners.

[cc2014] 04/1/2021 15:32

Whilst the notification rules are applied to ordinary shares I'm not sure they apply to the prefs. Happy to be corrected and learn something new!

[igbertsponk] 04/1/2021 14:46

I guess at some point Invesco will have to show they are selling - soon as they get rid of 1% in total. Seems they are content to hold and drip out rather than dumping the lot and hitting the price. Means us who want to add can keep the buys trickling in.

[eeza] 04/1/2021 14:16

Meanwhile it continues to spit out the regular div, but only 3p to 1-share-monty.ԅ22;

[cc2014] 04/1/2021 14:01

Not much to say really. There's cleary one or possibly two sellers in the background who want out, which was the whole point of converting the C's to P's imho as there was very low liquidity on the C's.

Everyone is 99% sure it is Invesco selling and everyone is 99% sure that every time the buyers dry up at whatever pricing point that Invesco will reduce the share price to bring in new buyers.

Everyone is 100% sure Invesco started with a huge number of P's and everyone is 95% sure they've still got a significantly large number that then can't easily shift.


Today's price action suggests that any hope Invesco were looking to shift a certain quantity by year end and then stop is dashed. I would guess a fair number of the buys today are dividend reinvestors and these will have completed by the end of tomorrow.


I shall continue to scale in as the share price drops unless I see an RNS to give me reason to change my strategy.

[kenny] 04/1/2021 03:48

Flyfisher – I guess the question is how the market will view the two accounting entries – one a profit and one a loss.

The market may view the loss on FX as temporary e.g., hoping that the rouble will recover to a more usual level. The profit, arising from the elimination of the RAVC preference class, is also a non-cash item but it is a permanent improvement for the balance sheet.

You are correct that the seller, who I also assume to be Invesco, is clouding any rational valuation of this preference class.

[rahosi] 31/12/2020 12:32

Divi NOT received (HSBC & XO) so not (yet) reinvested!

[pogue] 31/12/2020 11:23

Good man somebody needs to buy those prefs to get the price up :0)

[eeza] 30/12/2020 22:33

I always knew Monty was a cheapskate.

3p div.
1 share

[montyhedge] 30/12/2020 15:27

Pay day tomorrow another 3p in the bag.

[flyfisher] 24/12/2020 21:33

Yes kenny, but how much. Also as a percentage of the debt is euro denominated it looks like LTV will increase.

My initial look at this gives a £91m exceptional write down due to fx translation of nav and euro denominated loans, which after rental income, would lead to a ltv of 57% and a nav of 43p excluding any adjustment for the ravc conversion.
I need to look at the debt covenants.

I am warming to the prefs, but there is a seller in the market which i assume is Invesco.

Thanks.