Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[igbertsponk] 19/11/2020 12:11

Of course, there will still be some who opt for the scrip as doing so has tax benefits. But the company clearly doesn't want any more Prefs issued than it is forced to. Removing the scrip would annoy a lot of shareholders so guess the high price is as mean as they can get!
Most of mine are held overseas or in pensions and ISAs so taking the divi is fine for me. I'll then reinvest.

[kenny] 19/11/2020 12:05

Scrip price announced at 134p - once again. The company clearly do not wish to issue new preference shares near the actual share price in the market. This makes the scrip option totally unattractive - for the third consecutive quarter.

[igbertsponk] 19/11/2020 09:27

Scrip divi details out. They price them at 134p so don't want us to take the scrip.

Pursuant to the articles of incorporation of Raven Property Group, the directors are offering to holders of
Preference Shares, the opportunity to elect to receive new Preference Shares instead of cash in respect
of the dividend for the period from 30 September 2020 to (but excluding) 31 December 2020. Preference
Shareholders who elect for this Scrip Dividend Alternative will receive 1 new Preference Share for every
44.6666 Preference Shares registered in their name at the close of business on 13 November 2020. This
entitlement has been determined on the basis of the cash dividend of 3p per Preference Share and a
value of 134p for each new Preference Share. The value of each new Preference Share has been
determined by the directors of the Company using the discretion afforded to them under the articles of
incorporation of the Company

[cc2014] 19/11/2020 09:00

It's going down because the balance sheet is much weaker than it was a year or two ago as Sterling has strengthening against the Rouble. If you go read the accounts they explain the echange rate impacts at length which are complicated as it has assets and loans in different currencies (which to be fair they have been reducing this risk over time)

Also, with Covid you'd hardly expect it to go up. It's not like the Russian government has stepped in to support warehouse providers in the same way the UK/US/European banks are supporting Tier 1/2 capital for banks.

Also there has been a huge amount of high yield debt issued so it's supply and demand. RAVP is now swimming in a bigger pool of high yield assets and other instruments look more attractive than they did for the interest rate outcome.


Stocks go up and stocks go down and this one is no different. Buy when they are cheap, sell when they are expensive. I have no idea if this is cheap at 114p but I am pretty sure it is cheaper than it was at 130p.

I bought a few at 115p, but only a few. My suspicion is it will fall further based on the trade flow.

[zangdook] 19/11/2020 08:30

please keep buying

[11_percent] 19/11/2020 08:25

pogue,

I have held these, on and off, for about 8 years.

Each time I have bought, the share price goes down. This is not a new phenomenum, it just does.

The share price graph only goes back to arround May 2018, when there was a consolidation. The share price has generally gone down since then.

From memory, I think it was the same prior to May 2018.

Aviva caused a panic in the fixed interest market when they made the announcement that they were thinking about buying in some of their instruments.

This is fire proof. It needs the holders of the Perfs to vote to let RAV buy them in. There was a lot of discussion about this on these BBs att eh time. You can go back and look. They are bomb proof.

Alternative to RAVP.
Have a look at STCM, it is a share with a 10% divi. The divi is likely to go up, and you get the capital increase in the share price (hopefully).


Anyway, your question, why does it keep going down.
It has been doing this for years, and there is always an explanation put forward at the time for the drop.

It took a dive years ago, when the US and EU put sactions on Russia over the Crimea take over. That was the explanation for that one.

[tradertrev] 18/11/2020 16:52

Company unlikely to try and force people to sell the Prefs at a low price - management are huge holders of these.

[pogue] 18/11/2020 16:20

gfrae
I am getting out of fixed interest as the opportunities I see are in normal equities.
There is a quite a list of what I am investing in just now I can message them to you if you really want them.

[igbertsponk] 18/11/2020 16:01

Yup - they can't get rid of the Prefs without agreement by the Pref holders.

[crm114] 18/11/2020 15:51

Hi ev1

Sold my entire portfolio (ex gold)about 6 years ago to buy my place in the sun and this was one of them , a good earner .

Anyway, creeping back in now and bought some of this yesterday for a long term hold just like before.

One worry I had as a previous holder was that the company would force buy these at par value or some other value lower than the market price . Then I came across this post on another site dated april 2018....

''
Raven Russia made announcement today - part of which relates to Preference shares as follows:

Raven Russia notes the recent announcement by Aviva plc of its ability to cancel certain irredeemable shares it had issued at or close to par value through a reduction of capital, and the resulting interest from the UK Financial Conduct Authority and a number of institutional investors. The Company has taken its own legal advice on the matter. In light of that advice, the Board considers it appropriate to put to shareholders at the Annual General Meeting proposed amendments to the Articles that would provide that a reduction of capital of the Company's cumulative redeemable preference shares of 1p each ("Preference Shares") or Convertible Preference Shares (which, in effect, could implement a cancellation of such shares at a significant discount to their market price) should require the specific class consent of the relevant class of shares. The amendments will also require the class consent of the holders of Preference Shares (in so far as they relate to the rights attaching to the Preference Shares) and the holders of Convertible Preference Shares (in so far as they relate to the rights attaching to the Convertible Preference Shares).''

Does anyone know if they actually did it ? Thanks

[cc2014] 18/11/2020 15:30

You can do nothing more than trade what you see guys, but best to keep an eye on the exchange rate.

As per previous posts I bought my first tranche at 115p before it went XD. I consider this a good entry. If it continues to fall which looks likely given the seller is still going and the buyers are slowly drying up I'll buy some more. I haven't decided where but somewhere around 107p. Not sure that seems likely but this market is a strange one.

[igbertsponk] 18/11/2020 15:01

Seeing as the whole point of converting the convertibles (there's a song in there) was to make the Invesco ones more liquid, then it's a done deal that at some point Invesco will dump as many as they can. Raven is just TOO tainted with Woodford for new Invesco to stomach as a legacy. Insane when it's still shedding cash like crazy.
This is of course a drag on the price medium term, and I also miss having Invesco batting for the Pref holders overall - they'd never let the Company get away with much.

[gfrae] 18/11/2020 14:36

pogue...I'd be interested to see better value than this !
The only explanation that I can think of that justifies this price is in the expectation that there is an imminent Invesco dump.

[pogue] 18/11/2020 09:20

I see better value all over the place to be honest and am looking to get out, have some other stuff I can sell first but was expecting this to recover like the rest of the market when the vaccine hype hit hey ho can wait a bit longer mind you it will probably fall more lol

[cc2014] 17/11/2020 16:49

I suspect it's nothing more than stock rotation with one party selling as they see better value eleswhere.

Also the Covid situation in Russia doesn't look too clever.

Having said that I was delighted to take some stock off whoever is selling. Took 116p ish just before it went XD so really 113p.

The seller is running out of buyers here and it may well go lower yet. I'm not bothered. If it goes lower I'm happy to buy more.

[igbertsponk] 17/11/2020 16:08

pogue - I'd suspect the opposite. Fashionable short term money will be chasing the airlines etc who've had a massive bounce and not boring property, which will be seen as an asset to ignore for a long time yet. Even if warehouse properties should see the opposite effect.

[pogue] 17/11/2020 15:57

Zangdook
that chart is not going anywhere but down right now have a look at other fixed interest.
IgbertSponk
possible but surely the miracle vaccine in Russia never mind the UK should be lifting all boats as confidence returns?

[igbertsponk] 17/11/2020 15:29

Suspect we're still seeing fallout from conversion of Convertibles to Prefs and the new holders still want out.

[zangdook] 17/11/2020 15:17

Is it really falling? Or is someone fiddling with the nominal prices while the real prices don't change that much? As I said above, I bought shortly before xd for 115, and now, shortly after, it's 114

[igbertsponk] 12/11/2020 11:14

Narrow spread, just added at 114.5p

[igbertsponk] 12/11/2020 10:12

Usual ex div drop, not the 3p it should be!
I'm looking to add.

[cc2014] 12/11/2020 08:49

It does this over and over. I have been watching this stock for about 2 years and finally bought in yesterday because as much as I would have preferred to pay 112.1 with no dividend rather than 115.1 with the dividend it never falls back as much as it should.

Of course in my cyncial mind it looks to me like one the MM's has got a decent amount of stock to shift and they will make more money this way if they shift the stock at a higher price.

[cwa1] 12/11/2020 08:27

So XD today, paid 31/12. The gift that keeps on giving :-)

[zangdook] 09/11/2020 09:30

The spread has narrowed, but actual prices have gone up slightly - last week I bought at 115; now they want 115.1.