Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[igbertsponk] 07/1/2021 17:30

OOPS - i don't post here

[gfrae] 07/1/2021 17:22

I don't agree with you crm. You are buying property assets here at half price in an economy which might weather the current crisis better than most.
In my view if the London stock market only values the shares at this level they should seek a buyer for the whole company at somewhere around NAV.
It should not be too difficult warehouses are in demand and there is plenty of cash around.

[tradertrev] 07/1/2021 16:51

Don't forget it has annual rent escalation built into its leases. They won't overcome this year's devaluation but in more normal years they roughly do.

[crm114] 07/1/2021 16:15

Clearly, you would have to be as mad as a march hare to bet the kitchen sink on this one and we are not being paid 10+% for a good nights sleep. The bottom line here seems to be ( because of their substantial euro denominated debt)whether or not RAV can grow its revenues faster than the Rouble is depreciating .

A second concern is why Invesco couldn't find another investment firm to offload their shares to. Has Rav plundered unfortunate investors a few too many times ?

Fingers crossed

[eeza] 06/1/2021 09:20

No worries, mont - as long as the 3p keeps dropping into your satchel.

[montyhedge] 06/1/2021 09:08

Sellers continue.

[gfrae] 04/1/2021 16:33

It could be someone else.

[igbertsponk] 04/1/2021 15:37

Just a matter of time. The lists for both Ords and Prefs were last updated in October. Even if the insitutions don't report their cahnge, the company can see the changes in it's share registers and they write to the holders demanding to know the beneficial owners.

[cc2014] 04/1/2021 15:32

Whilst the notification rules are applied to ordinary shares I'm not sure they apply to the prefs. Happy to be corrected and learn something new!

[igbertsponk] 04/1/2021 14:46

I guess at some point Invesco will have to show they are selling - soon as they get rid of 1% in total. Seems they are content to hold and drip out rather than dumping the lot and hitting the price. Means us who want to add can keep the buys trickling in.

[eeza] 04/1/2021 14:16

Meanwhile it continues to spit out the regular div, but only 3p to 1-share-monty.ԅ22;

[cc2014] 04/1/2021 14:01

Not much to say really. There's cleary one or possibly two sellers in the background who want out, which was the whole point of converting the C's to P's imho as there was very low liquidity on the C's.

Everyone is 99% sure it is Invesco selling and everyone is 99% sure that every time the buyers dry up at whatever pricing point that Invesco will reduce the share price to bring in new buyers.

Everyone is 100% sure Invesco started with a huge number of P's and everyone is 95% sure they've still got a significantly large number that then can't easily shift.


Today's price action suggests that any hope Invesco were looking to shift a certain quantity by year end and then stop is dashed. I would guess a fair number of the buys today are dividend reinvestors and these will have completed by the end of tomorrow.


I shall continue to scale in as the share price drops unless I see an RNS to give me reason to change my strategy.

[kenny] 04/1/2021 03:48

Flyfisher – I guess the question is how the market will view the two accounting entries – one a profit and one a loss.

The market may view the loss on FX as temporary e.g., hoping that the rouble will recover to a more usual level. The profit, arising from the elimination of the RAVC preference class, is also a non-cash item but it is a permanent improvement for the balance sheet.

You are correct that the seller, who I also assume to be Invesco, is clouding any rational valuation of this preference class.

[rahosi] 31/12/2020 12:32

Divi NOT received (HSBC & XO) so not (yet) reinvested!

[pogue] 31/12/2020 11:23

Good man somebody needs to buy those prefs to get the price up :0)

[eeza] 30/12/2020 22:33

I always knew Monty was a cheapskate.

3p div.
1 share

[montyhedge] 30/12/2020 15:27

Pay day tomorrow another 3p in the bag.

[flyfisher] 24/12/2020 21:33

Yes kenny, but how much. Also as a percentage of the debt is euro denominated it looks like LTV will increase.

My initial look at this gives a £91m exceptional write down due to fx translation of nav and euro denominated loans, which after rental income, would lead to a ltv of 57% and a nav of 43p excluding any adjustment for the ravc conversion.
I need to look at the debt covenants.

I am warming to the prefs, but there is a seller in the market which i assume is Invesco.

Thanks.

[kenny] 24/12/2020 20:20

There will be a very big FX loss in the second half but it will be partially offset by about £41m of accounting profit arising on the conversation and elimination of the RAVC preference class.

[flyfisher] 24/12/2020 18:48

Guys, I notice an fx loss relating to euro loans and an fx loss due to asset revaluation in the interim results.

Would anyone have a view on the loss to be faced in the second half as the Rouble has weakened by a much greater amount.

[cc2014] 24/12/2020 11:48

I have to assume Invesco are still selling in the background and I will be happy to add to my position should the share price fall.

The market generally feels a bit puffed up to me. Santa rally if you like and I can't see where the next set of good news will come from with Brexit and US stimulus packages done.

I'm expecting if not a sell-off at least a retracement in Jan/Feb across the board but no idea if this will go with it.

I guess if this is the bottom I've got a few and I'm happy enough. If the share price decided to drop a bit in order for me to add that would be just peachy.

[riskvsreward] 24/12/2020 11:24

More like yielding 11% as it pays 12 p annually.

[gary1966] 24/12/2020 11:22

I had trouble getting stock yesterday in terms of I kept getting quoted 110.9p to buy when everyone else was paying 109.65p. Corrected itself this morning thankfully and I am responsible for the two buys at 109.65p today.

[montyhedge] 24/12/2020 11:20

Of course, even better, lol 10.8%