Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[snowydays] 14/5/2012 08:11

Growth company investor have released the full text of their buy recommendation for Rambler.

The conclusion is:

"Analysts at house broker Seymour Pierce estimate a net present value of $251 million at a discount rate of 5 per cent. Rambler is, of course, exposed to the hefty Indian and Chinese markets, and any slump in the two Asian giants would damage the company, as it would the sector as a whole. However, with a considerable upside to its share price, the company is a suitable investment for those interested in what is a relatively low-risk mining concern by sector standards. n Ben Jaglom"

[p3dr036] 11/5/2012 15:12

snowydays 11 May'12 - 08:15 - 1740 of 1740 (Filtered)

One attempt too many to trash the price!

[snowydays] 11/5/2012 08:15

A cogent and eloquently reasoned post Redhill.

[snowydays] 10/5/2012 08:44

Hopefully the sharp falls in metal prices will have convinced Rambler's management team how foolish it would be to risk hundreds of millions expanding mining to the LFZ.

Let's not forget that this purported copper miner has yet to produce even a single ton of copper despite repeated promises dating back at least to 2010. They have not yet commisioned a simple copper concentrator, and there is still plenty of scope for things to go wrong.

Now that Ramblers one source of income has disappeared the company could be bust within months if they do not get their act together.

[ethelwalch] 09/5/2012 21:58

Half a penny off in the carnage of the last few days says it all about RMM. Under the radar and slowly but surely building strength. The right decisions are being made for all timescales by a competent board with a solid, advancing plan and the share price is reflecting it.
I'm holding some shocking dogs but am thanking the gods that this is my largest holding.

[snowydays] 05/5/2012 12:23

Rambler Metals and Mining - Canadian Stock to Watch.

Technical analysis for those with faith in the tealeaves.

[snowydays] 05/5/2012 10:55

Rambler was a stock tip at Growth Investor on 30/4/2012.

"Rambler goes on and on 30/04/2012
Canadian miner Rambler Metals & Mining could be a suitable pick for commodity-hungry investors as it nears maiden profits."

That's all you get without subscribing. Has anyone got the full article?

Recommendations in tipsheets and newspapers are probably what is needed to get the shareprice moving.

[k4r] 04/5/2012 14:21

js - very interesting, and Rolf Harris asking the questions...
Copper concentrate production for a quarter, and possibly quarter and a half of this year. Excellent.

[js8106455] 04/5/2012 11:57

Hey found this interview on Ramblers and wanted to share it with you.

Check it out,

[king suarez] 03/5/2012 19:06

Thanks Snowy, very positive report :)

[timberwolf3] 03/5/2012 18:28

snowydays - thankyou.

[snowydays] 03/5/2012 15:07

Seymour Pierce featured Rambler in its Morning Meeting report, and reiterated its 'buy' recommendation.

Analyst Matthew McDonald said that, based on his current estimates, the stock trades on a very low full-year 2013 forecast price-earnings multiple of just two times and added: "Following the start of copper production we expect the stock to be rerated."

McDonald has a price target of 62 pence for Rambler, nearly 70 per cent upside to the current level of 36.5 pence.

Christopher Welch at Ocean Securities agrees that starting up the copper circuit "should represent a re-rating event for the company".

The analyst pointed out that increasing the total throughput of Nugget Pond's front end to 845 wet metric tonnes is a big achievement for Rambler as the rate far exceeds the throughput rate outlined in the feasibility work.

"The decision to have an initial gold production phase has greatly benefited Rambler. It has allowed the team to begin paying down the gold loan, produced revenue during a time of high gold prices and the processing team has been able to get a better understanding of grinding rates for the Ming ore.

"Not least of the benefits from the initial gold phase is that Rambler has demonstrated itself to be a dynamic team that can bring a mine into production and exceed initial expectations. Moreover, the value of the Nugget Pond processing plant that can be reconfigured to process either gold or copper ores, or treat both simultaneously, has clearly been proven," Welch added.

[king suarez] 03/5/2012 14:40

I bought in the run up to the scoping study late 2010, share price ran up to 80p (avg high 30's) very quickly and I should have sold then. I was hoping the resource would attract a better price. I am learning not to be so greedy these days!

Still feel there is a good (>50%) chance of this option being taken up, which will provide the company with c£40m. Current mkt cap around £16m. Now would be the time to buy in for a 9 month hold if it fits your risk/reward.

They have a few mil in the bank and another early stage project in Argentina fully paid up for.

Bit more of a binary bet than RMM though. Mankayan is far too large (requiring alot of Capex) for BZT to develop so they must sell it to someone.

[chipperfrd] 03/5/2012 14:13

KS,
Thank you for that. I slipped 1 column left on my base metals comparison sheet and picked up BZM (doh!)

Have checked the rest and they are looking ok.

I have looked at BZT several times in the past but never bought stock.
Chip

[king suarez] 03/5/2012 13:44

Chip,

O/T - I think you may have missed a decimal place somewhere on your valuation of BZT above!

Current market cap is around £16m not £180m!

Goldfields purchased an option last year to purchase the Mankayan resource for $70m in total($7m was paid up front). The option expires in Jan 2013, and it is anticipated that it will be taken up as Goldfields are expanding by purchasing the adjacent resources in the area. The option date was set at Jan 2013 to enable the purchase to take place in Goldfields 2013 aquisition budget.

A good buy at these levels for a hold until Jan I feel.

FYI - their initial scoping study had an NPV of $200m for Mankayan, so you could argue it is being sold cheap, but then they have only spent around $5m - $10m on purchasing the licence and drilling up the resource over the last few years.

Back on topic - good news from Rambler the other day. Looking forward to the startup of copper production and getting some subsequent numbers to have a look at.

All the best.

KS

[chipperfrd] 03/5/2012 12:17

Irrespective of individual views on the pro's & con's of the possible expansion into the LFZ, it is still only at the preliminary assessment stage. There is still much work to do in order to complete a necessary bankable study which, in itself, will probably take another 12 months or so.

In the meantime the company will presumably find a market value based on some multiple of it's earnings from the current Nugget Pond concentrator production and we should have some indications on those metrics by the end of this calendar year.

Early commissioning will use ore from the LFZ, so RMM can keep it's options open by both fine tuning of the new concentrator using the lower mineralised ore and by deriving valuable metallurgical data which may well be used in any future BFS for possible expansion into the LFZ.

With current sentiment towards the resources sector at such a low ebb as evidenced across the market (and BBs - including this one), it may well be that RMM delays progress on the expansion until market sentiment improves sufficiently for the participation of banks, off-take partners & equity take-up to be at a more positive level. If the market sags further then by delaying they would be reducing risk and benefiting from another year or two of cash flows from the 1807 zone which should ultimately ease any expansion cash flow requirements to some extent.

To round off: I thought I might improve my earlier comparison table a bit by adding current market valuations of the stocks listed.

It is of limited value because some of these stocks have other interests besides copper. They are also at differing states of development. But I thought that this little table does help to put RMM into a valuation context compared to it's peer group on the London market (but note: FND & DME are on the ASX and have de-listed from the LSE).
Chip

EPIC . Ore(Mt) - Grade(%) , Cu(Mt) _ Cap(£m)
EGU .. 344 ..... 0.45% .... 1.41 ... 1443.3
DME .. 111 ..... 1.45% .... 1.51 ... 476.3
NUS .. 2.1 ..... 6.80% .... 0.16 ... 231.7
MNC .. 943 ..... 0.39% .... 3.88 ... 190.1
FML .. 362 ..... 0.43% .... 1.56 ... 106.1
EMED . 205 ..... 0.49% .... 0.95 ... 95.4
CAML . 375 ..... 0.12% .... 0.45 ... 75.9
FND .. 9 ....... 2.40% .... 0.21 ... 60.5
CDC .. 271 ..... 0.45% .... 0.93 ... 47.4
RMM .. 22.6 .... 1.53% .... 0.35 ... 45.4
BEM .. 5.4 ..... 0.80% .... 0.02 ... 30.2
WTI .. 73.9 .... 0.91% .... 0.67 ... 26.2
ACU .. 152 ..... 0.65% .... 1.01 ... 22.1
LND .. 0.74 .... 1.88% .... 0.08 ... 21.5
AMC .. 68.5 .... 0.13% .... 0.09 ... 20.0
AFE .. 18.5 .... 0.83% .... 0.08 ... 17.7
BZT .. 257 ..... 0.44% .... 1.24 ... 16.7
OSU .. 10.2 .... 1.73% .... 0.18 ... 13.8
NRRP . 10.7 .... 1.20% .... 0.15 ... 9.8
ECR .. 29 ...... 0.30% .... 0.08 ... 3.9

[timberwolf3] 02/5/2012 11:08

lycanthropic - that got me reaching for the dictionary, not in the oxford, but found in the urban dictionary :)

[cfro] 02/5/2012 10:57

I think you are being pedantic. There will be two weeks clean out and one week commissioning, Gold pours end this week. I suspect copper concentrate production will therefore start about third week in May.

If you want to argue then only a delay of one week !!

[snowydays] 02/5/2012 10:35

They had previously said that they would start commisioning in mid-May, now it is end of May. How is that not a delay?

This is what a previous press release stated just a few weeks ago.

"gold processing should be completed by mid-May whereupon the Company will begin running
low-grade copper ore through the concentrator as part of the start-up and commissioning process."

[cfro] 02/5/2012 10:04

There are no delays. The last of the Gold pours ends this week, then there is two weeks clean out and another week commissioning. So third or fourth week production will start but change over will start to happen in next few days.