Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[timberwolf3] 02/5/2012 09:20

Poor old Snowy, what's he gonna moan about now :)

[cfro] 02/5/2012 09:06

Yes damn excellent imo ! :0))

Loved this bit in George O's statement...

"...we are hopeful that these productivity increases will also be seen once we begin copper concentrate production."

And this...

"We are confident that the latest improvements to the crushing and grinding circuit will allow for increases to copper production above the 600 mtpd used in the feasibillity study and budget forecasts."

Importantly they are on track for Copper concentrate production before the end of May.

[kiwimonk] 02/5/2012 08:51

Nice little Earner.
Next stage, Clear out the Mill and Copper production starts.

Oh I love these Cash Cows that Grow and Grow!

[timberwolf3] 02/5/2012 07:14

Now that is good news,excellent well done Rambler.

[kaos89] 02/5/2012 07:11

good rns, record gold production, copper start up on track

[chipperfrd] 02/5/2012 00:18

snowydays,

I am attempting to build a long term portfolio for my children.

[count chris] 01/5/2012 22:08

Every dog will have it's day is an odd strategy when there are hundreds of shares to choose from and you want to pick a handful of the very best. However I understand your position now after that explanation so apologies if my posts seemed disrespectful. If they are so keen to work the LFZ surely there's a good reason for it - are they just looking to ride out the global recession before mining the good stuff for example?

[snowydays] 01/5/2012 21:29

"providing 20-30 years of steady cash generation with corresponding dividends and M&A opportunities."

You realise there will be no cash generation or dividends for at least 7 years?

Do you really expect to still be holding these shares in 30 years time?

[chipperfrd] 01/5/2012 18:17

Fair enough!

I am much more interested in the longer term.

I want to see a bespoke concentrator built at the Ming site so that Rambler can take full advantage of local toll processing of 3rd party gold ores at Nugget Pond and to also have a long term, separate, copper concentrator, providing 20-30 years of steady cash generation with corresponding dividends and M&A opportunities.
Chip

[snowydays] 01/5/2012 09:43

As I said Count, every dog will have its day.

The problem with Rambler is not the company but the absurd obsession with mining the LFZ, a high risk project with little or no value to shareholders and which is completely unnecessary.

The mining of the massive sulphides has a very conservative mine life of 6 years starting immediately. However, that is based on the measured and indicated resource. There is also an inferred resource which probably exists and which when mined would extend mine life considerably. In addition the extent of the deposits are largely uneplored. The resource is described as being open both up and down plunge while various lenses await exploration. The massive sulphides are a low risk high quality resource which can probably be mined for 20 years producing strong cashflow. That cashflow can be better used in developing different projects, perhaps in conjuction with other local explorers, than in developing a high risk, high cost, capital intensive project.

More importantly from a shareholders point of view is that developing the LFZ in the manner envisaged will tie up all the company's profits for at least six years and perhaps eight years. Kiss goodbye to any hopes of a dividend if they take that route.

As a shareholder I do still believe there is a good chance of making money here over the next few months. I believe that miners generally, and junior miners/explorers are very undervalued at the moment, but there are tentative signs of life in the sector. A sector rerating may be starting. In addition if Rambler does actually start to produce copper in the next few weeks there could be good price rises:
a)When Rambler announces that it has started live commisioning of the copper concentrator.
b) When Rambler announces that it is now feeding high quality ore into the concentrator circuit.
c) When Rambler announces that it has produced a reasonable quantity of concentrate and moved it to storage at Goodyear's Cove. This is the point at which payment becomes due.

Those announcements will show the market that Rambler can be taken seriously and that the project is substantially derisked.

Hopefully we will hear something soon since it is now May 1st and this is the month when things are supposed to be happening, though personally I think there will be delays and excuses.

Finally, regarding the awful LFZ obsession of Rambler's management. No doubt they know a great deal more about it than I do. In my opinion though, the directors have very different timescales and motives to most small shareholders such as myself and probably everyone reading this. From a shareholders point of view I would be very happy to see a large rise in the shareprice then sell up and move on. The directors of course are interested in the long term future. Perhaps the best long term interests of the company are in tieing up all cash for the next seven years and not paying dividends. I doubt if that is best for small shareholders whose perspectives are different.

[count chris] 30/4/2012 22:52

Snowy days - the previous trading day you say you bought more RMM and yet you seem convinced it's not going to be able to turn a profit. Your ability to digest and analyse the facts and figures suggests you know what you are doing so why are you buying if you don't like the company?

[snowydays] 30/4/2012 13:29

That is clearly nonsense. It may be possible to lay off some staff and reduce costs that way, but the money spent on expanding the concentrator, a new mill and ventilation system and the expansion of the fleet will not be refunded. If copper prices fall that money is all lost.

[chipperfrd] 30/4/2012 11:27

... and is followed by this paragraph:

To combat this commodity price risk exposure the company can always revert back to the Phase 1 operation, low tonnage but high grade, during those extended times of depressed market conditions. In addition with the ability to switch between copper production and gold production Rambler has developed a strong operational base that can remain profitable under a wide range of commodity price fluctuations. Of course, with a portion of the concentrated production hedged this would again remove some of the dependency to the current copper spot price.

It all boils down to your personal view of metal prices going forward and the range of investment choices for your cash.

[snowydays] 30/4/2012 10:57

That is not what it says. Here is what it really says:

The run of mine head grade for the 3,500 tonnes per day operation is predicated to be 1.4% copper. For the mining method employed and milling required to produce a
saleable copper concentrate the breakeven price per pound of copper equivalent is $1.97. This $1.97 represents the minimum world copper spot price required to sustain the operation on an operating basis. However with the addition of the initial capital investment the first 7.5 years, the payback period, the operation actually requires a copper price nearer to $3.10 per pound. While a reduction in capital will certainly alleviate some of the dependency to higher copper pricing in those early ears there does exist a risk that under an extended period of depressed copper markets the footwall zone would be marginal to uneconomical.

Section 25.2.2

Furthermore those figures are calculated purely on the additional CAPEX required from now. To calculate the true break even position we should also take account of the money spent to date. This is around $80m without taking account of time value.

[chipperfrd] 30/4/2012 10:36

The Technical Report mentions the possibility of some very useful tax rebates that may well be offered to Rambler as an incentive to go ahead with the enlarged project under the EDGE program. Up to 100% rebates possible on Provincial rates over 15 years and up to 50% rebates on Federal taxes over 15 years. With a tapering rebate over the last 5 years.

The break-even situation is clarified in the report. $1.93/lb Cu over the LoM and $3.02/lb over the CAPEX pay-back period of 7.5 years.

There are a number of ways that CAPEX may be reduced subject to further work.

Distinct project upside from toll-processing of 3rd-party ores through Nugget Pond and by further exploration and subsequent enlargement of the Ming mine reserves.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 29/4/2012 14:25

For info:
The PEA Technical Report has been filed on SEDAR.com as promised (dated 27/4/12).

It is 296 pages - so quite a detailed read!

[snowydays] 29/4/2012 08:58

Watch your mouth Ethel. My cat is a tiger!

[ethelwalch] 28/4/2012 23:27

Snowydays,
If you had a cat you'd think it was a dog.

[chipperfrd] 28/4/2012 13:54

snowydays

It's called capitulation and can be seen across the broader mining sector.

If history is taken as a guide then such action normally presages a decent bull run.

[count chris] 27/4/2012 22:21

Lol. I think you may be bipolar snowydays.

[snowydays] 27/4/2012 17:20

I bought another 16.000 today. Awful company but even a dog like this must have it's day sometime.

Looking at the trades there seems to be persistent small selling. The numbers being sold suggests small private investors, so probably not any inside information causing anyone to sell. Still surprising though. Why would quite large numbers of small PI's sell when we are probably close to an important announcement and at what could be a major step in the companies development? Perhaps just some PI's losing their nerve and getting out at a reasonable price.