Quadrise Share Discussion Threads

[trytotakeiteasy] 23/9/2015 17:02

It is close 71.73% versus the 75% required... so they may indeed manage it by the extended 30th September deadline..

[r ball] 23/9/2015 16:52

no reason to accept.

[cszjrh2] 23/9/2015 16:46

Ha ha. Thought it was going to be close...

[trytotakeiteasy] 23/9/2015 12:29

deadline today.. will 75% threshold be met.. or will bid be increased??

[cszjrh2] 23/9/2015 08:46

Two days ago it looked to me like IIs were offloading at below Offer Price. Yesterday however there was buying above...I fear they've got enough acceptances but my reading of the market/tea leaves is that it's going to be close!SoP

[deadly] 23/9/2015 08:23

5.5million trade at 31p.
Looks promising.

[winsome147] 23/9/2015 08:03

What happens today, do you think, if they don't get enough votes? Will the share price climb higher as the market expects they will have to raise their offer? I see the share price is already slightly above the offer price this morning.

[scburbs] 21/9/2015 11:02

Not sure, I know scheme of arrangement has minimum 75%, but I thought a takeover not done as a scheme of arrangement could operate with a lower threshold.

[quepassa] 21/9/2015 11:01

As far as I understand ( but check for yourself) , there are two thresholds under the TAKE OVER CODE:-

1. If you get 75% acceptances you can go unconditional and apply to take the company private.

2. If you get 90% you have the automatic right to buy up the balance of shares. That is to say the right to compulsory purchase any balance of outstanding shares over 90%.


Bidco/Bailey had built into their offer another Acceptance Condition of their own choice that they would only complete the bid ( SUBJECT TO CHANGING THE FIGURE - as they did on Friday ) if they got 90% acceptances.

Effectively they had put a rider/condition on their bid, over and above Take-Over code regulations.

On Friday, they changed that condition to bring it in line with the Take Over Code figure of 75%.


My personal interpretation of the initial Bidco 90% Acceptance Condition was that they wanted to be conservative and perhaps initially felt confident of getting 90% without too much difficulty - and/or perhaps wanted a useful get-out clause if something transpired during the bid process.

Perhaps also an indirect way of encouraging investors to accept the offer.

But this 90% figure was never set in stone unlike the Take Over Code figures so it was always a flex figure.

My personal interpretation of the Friday announcement is that they do not feel confident of getting a knock-out 90% so they lowered it, as they had the right to do, to the lower Take-Over code figure of 75%.

So you might have had a position if they got 80% (hopefully not!) where they had the right under the Take-Over Code to go unconditional but their own Acceptance Condition of 90% effectively barred them from completing.

I always personally viewed the special BidCo 90% figure as a technicality/get-out clause and viewed the Take Over Code figures as the real hurdles.


Now both figures are aligned at 75% .


The clock is now ticking fast.

Second Closing is this Wednesday 23rd at 1300hrs.

You'll know pretty soon after that if they get 75% or not.

If they do get 75%, they have effectively won at 131p and can go unconditional and they would most likely apply to delist.

The Offer will in my understanding then remain open for at least 14 days so that you can still accept the 131p.


If they don't get 75%, they have two main choices.

1. Either to walk and that's curtains for the bid, or

2. To increase the bid and post a new offer document at a higher price.



This is only my interpretation of the rules and offer ,so read the prospectus for yourself please.


My personal view is that it is touch-and-go if they will get 75%.

But that's my guess only given the relatively low 53% acceptance level at First Closing combined with the growing strength of the property market.


If I had to put a figure on it - in my view and guess only- it is 50/50 that they will get 75%.

If they don't get 75% - in my view and guess only - it is 70/30 that they would increase the bid.

I must stress that these are my personal views and guesses only and nothing more.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[winsome147] 21/9/2015 10:37

QuePassa, that's how I understood it under Take Over Code Rules. 75% minimum.

[quepassa] 21/9/2015 10:34

But surely they are caught by the Take Over Code at 75%.

If they don't get 75%, they cannnot go unconditional and the whole bid collapses under the regulations of The Take Over Code with the 53% being returned to shareholders.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[scburbs] 21/9/2015 10:15

Winsome147, The acceptance condition is part III section A1, i.e. the offer is conditional upon acceptances at least equal to the acceptance condition which was set at 90%.

The acquirer is free to reduce this to 75% and they are also free to reduce it to 50.1%. Given they have over 50% already this ability could be a worry for holders, albeit their ability to implement their plans would presumably be much more constrained if they reduce it below 75%.

[winsome147] 21/9/2015 09:24

I must admit I don't understand Friday's announcement either. The threshold was always 75%. Anyone else know?

[quepassa] 21/9/2015 08:37

Surely 131p is too low for Quintain in my view, as Bloomberg today reports that "UK House Prices Hit Record High as Squeeze leads to Extremes."

Stating that "London led asking prices for UK homes to an all-time high in September..", the Bloomberg article highlights in my opinion why the 131p offer of March NAV + 7% is looking increasingly historic, out of date, out of touch and unattractive in my opinion.

Link to full article:




My guess is that the London portfolio may have moved up in value by some 5% so far this year, if not more.

At a price/premium based on a March NAV of +7%, in my guess this is likely equating to a price/premium based on today's September values of barely above book value/net asset value.

It seems to me that the great recent uplift in London property values since March is being handed to Lone Star for free.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[davidosh] 18/9/2015 22:23

Directors that look after themselves and not shareholders are mentioned in this weeks show...

[dov] 18/9/2015 17:53

I thought 75 was always the manic no what's changed

[richard xii] 18/9/2015 17:20

Bidco is pleased to announce that it has reduced the percentage of Quintain Shares required to satisfy the Acceptance Condition to 75 per cent.So not so many more acceptances.

[cszjrh2] 18/9/2015 16:02

Ok, come on, which of you just sold almost 4.9 million shares at 129.75p....?!So someone doesn't believe the offer will be increased, or go through, or is comfortable leaving £60K on the table and getting their hands on their cash a few weeks early...Interesting to see who when the RNS comes out. SoP

[jaws6] 18/9/2015 10:06

all fund manager who hold at QED should read this story to think ??

And make mind up is QED worth more or not ??

HOUSE prices are growing at a robust pace this month while mortgage lending has surged as the housing markets heat up.

Estate agent Knight Frank’s house price sentiment indicator today scored 59.3 for September, with scores above 50 indicating price growth. The fastest current growth is in London.

Households’ overall expectations of price growth over the next 12 months nudged up to a score of 70 from 69.5. However, prices in the south are expected to rise much more quickly than those in the north.

[inki] 18/9/2015 09:53

Another vote against - with my modest holding.
Property is a long term investment and selling at a 'current' discount makes no sense.

[glavey] 18/9/2015 00:54

The Fed's 'hold' this evening must make QED more attractive on future returns basis, unless things in China get very 'iffy' and cause significant contagion.

The refugees/economic migrants can only put more pressure on available housing stock.

Can't see any point in accepting during the extension period. May as well just wait it out.

[winsome147] 17/9/2015 12:00

I voted no ofr my substantial holding. I don't necessarily think Lone Star will up their bid once they fail at 131p, or if an alternative buyer will offer upwards of 140p. But at least the share price should still hold up at current levels as the market knows what the company is worth and will still anticipate a better offer down the line.

It's a no brainer. Let's hold out for 140p+.

[maddox] 15/9/2015 14:35

Hi QP,

Likewise I've rejected their lousy offer.

With some takeovers it can be a difficult choice cash now or value later but I have no qualms in rejecting this offer.

Yet another article in today's City A.M.: 'Housing crisis deepens as new listings dwindle' 'The UK is facing a housing supply shortage , with London particularly badly hit' 'New property listings fell 6.6% across the UK last month, while the number of homes put up for sale in the Capital slumped a staggering 24.8%' This article is based on the Property Supply Index compiled by HouseSimple.com

With every day that goes by 131p looks more unattractive. It's time OUR Board recognized that this offer is not in THEIR shareholder' best interest and withdraw their recommendation.

Regards, Maddox

[quepassa] 15/9/2015 05:32

For avoidance of doubt, I have again DECLINED and SAID NO to the extended 131p offer in respect of all of my holdings in Quintain.

I have instructed my stockbrokers accordingly.


In my opinion, the 131p offer significantly undervalues the true worth of the Company.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP