Quadrise Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 18/8/2015 18:19

deadline a way off. patience.

[aberdare] 18/8/2015 12:45

looking thro the notices it looks like fortress have added a further 1000000
in the last 4 days so hope is not dead of a increase offer.

[aberdare] 18/8/2015 12:42

sand grove have added nearly 800000 in the last 4 days so they are looking for a further rise or am I misreading the notices.

rgds

[cszjrh2] 18/8/2015 10:59

Watching this drift back towards the offer price I'm fearing the "worst" and turning my attention to researching potential homes for my money should the bid go ahead. Anyone spotted any other similar commercial/residential property plays? My ideal would be similar MCAP (so itself a potential takeover target), manageable leverage, London or SE focussed with a discount to NAV ;). That formula has served me very well over the last couple of years as I originally held Minerva (MNR.L) and when they were taken over I switched to QED. If I can get a hat-trick that will probably be the mortgage paid off :)

[r ball] 17/8/2015 12:39

no hurry. might as well take the maximum time to decide.

£1.45 anyone??

[dov] 17/8/2015 09:59

what i dont understand if this is such a steal why has no one else tabled a better offer ?

[quepassa] 17/8/2015 09:41

A search on HIGHLY-REGARDED Zoopla this morning shows that the value for flats in WEMBLEY has increased by:-

a figure of 3.28% over three months AND an ASTONISHING 6.92% over 6 months.

How the valuers can say that ther has been no material difference in values since March beggars belief in my opinion.


In view of the above, selling Quintain at 7% over March NAV is an absolute disgrace in my view.


Shareholders need to DEMAND NEW CURRENT VALUATIONS in my view.

If ZOOPLA is publicly showing an uplift in value of Wembley flats by almost 7% in just six months, this seems very much at odds with surveyors saying there is no material difference in values since March.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[911man] 14/8/2015 13:27

My view is the CEO has to go!!

[quepassa] 14/8/2015 13:19

True.

Excellent example about St. Modwen.


But it certainly doesn't take long to tell your brokers to decline any ridiculously low offer. As I know from personal experience.


In my guess more and more investors are coming round to the realisation that this may be a really low offer for Quintain.

Without reference to Quintain, I wonder to myself how CEO remuneration for a London-centric property company which is publicly listed and publicly scrutinised may or may not compare to CEO remuneration/incentivisation for a similar property company which is privately owned by a USA private equity fund.


On a different note, the management/ performance/ Return fees and percentages which the managers/advisors may or may not be taking on Lone Star Ref IV are very interesting in my opinion.


I also wonder to myself whether the management of Quintain are doing their reputations much good within the property market by recommending a sale of the Company they manage at a price barely above NAV in such a strong market.

Does seem very strange to me -and perhaps to many others- that any London-centric property company with such a strong portfolio thinks it is worth barely above NAV.

Just can't work that one out.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[kramch] 14/8/2015 12:30

Enlightening to compare St Modwen's with Quintain, similar urban regeneration focus, SMP have the New Covent Garden development to go at in Nine Elms.

All except that their Market Cap is 144% of NAV, and we are being taken out at estimated NAV.

Shocking that the default setting for the brokers is to accept unless account holders advised otherwise.

K.

[quepassa] 14/8/2015 08:45

Interesting article in Fat Prophets dated 12th Aug.

The full article written by Andrew Latto, Senior Analyst is worth reading in my view.

A few salient points from his article:-

- Certain funds have built notifiable long positions in Quintain since 30th July.
York Capital with a 3.4% position and Merrill Lynch with a 5.8% position are mentioned.

- That the bid for Quintain " doesn't appear overly generous" and "...because it doesn't appear to include the long-term development potential at Wembley Park"



The concluding paragraph by Andrew Latto headed Summary and valuation is fascinating.

The paragraph speaks about the possibility that the NAV of Quintain could anyway come in at around 131p by March 2016 - which is a mere seven months away.

That the growing rental stream should be able to support the reintroduction of a dividend in the medium-term.

Andrew Latto comments that it is unsurprising that Quintain attracted a bid but

"It is more surprising that Quintain’s directors have recommend the 131p cash current offer. "


Mr. Latto also comments:-

" This will certainly be an interesting bid battle to watch with the deadline for acceptances 9th September. In our view, it looks more likely than not that investors will hold out for an improved offer. "

and concludes that;

" A London apartment builder with growing rental income offers exposure that is worth fighting for. "


Hear, hear. Bravo. Well said. well written.


In my opinion, the low-ball offer from Lone Star significantly undervalues Quintain and does not reward shareholders for the potential build-out value of the Company.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/8/2015 07:37

"VORACIOUS DEMAND".

This is what highly-regarded John Burns, CEO of Derwent London, said yesterday when Derwent released their six month figures to June:-



“We remain confident in our markets. We have raised our average portfolio ERV growth estimates for the full year to 8-10%, and expect property yields to remain firm in the second half supported by voracious demand."

These are some of the VALUATION UPLIFTS given by Derwent yesterday:

Strong property performance in six months to June 2015

- Underlying valuation uplift of 9.1%, compared to 9.8% in H1 and 9.8% in H2 2014
- Underlying valuation uplift on our six major projects was 14.2% 

- Total property return of 10.3%, compared to 10.1% for IPD Central London Offices Index 

-True equivalent yield tightened by 17 basis points to 4.56% 

- Estimated rental values increased 5.2%, which compares to 4.2% in H1 and 4.8% in H2 2014

- Overall lettings in H1 4.3% above December 2014 ERV; open market lettings 9.3% above




When you see such strong figures, positive outlook and ASTONISHING UPLIFT IN VALUATIONS from another London-centric property company, it beggars belief in my view that Quintain would not have equally recorded good uplift in valuations since March, especially since any political uncertainty was removed with the resounding outcome of the May General Election.

If Derwent London recorded a 9.1% uplift in property values in the first six months of this year, no one will convince that the value of Quintain's property portfolio hasn't gone up by a good amount so far this year since March.

It is wholly unacceptable and an affront to loyal shareholders in my opinion that Quintain have not provided Updated Property Valuations.

This is disgraceful in my opinion and reflects poorly on Quintain management who stand to gain handsomely from the potential early crystallisation of executive share options.

The current Offer of 131p from Lone Star/Bidco significantly undervalues in my opinion the true worth of Quintain and its future potential.

In my view, it is outrageous that Quintain have not provided new property valuations when there would appear to be clear evidence that property values in London and elsewhere have moved forward significantly this year.

In my opinion, shareholders need collectively to demand current Property valuations.

The offer at 131p , in my opinion, significantly undervalues Quintain.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[winsome147] 13/8/2015 21:15

I want more than 131p and London property is highly desirable. It can't be rocket science for other players to figure out if its worth putting in a higher offer and you can bet others are looking at it right now. If no other bids come in then 131p is clearly a decent price. Simple as that. Let market forces play out.

[shaf200] 13/8/2015 18:41

This deal is unfortunately going to go through boys.... none of the big institutions saying anything about it..

[davidosh] 13/8/2015 16:06

I really think that a few of you need to make contact with a few of the main institutional holders and let them know how all the private investors feel. We also need to be aware that the directors with minimal shareholdings who have never spent their big bonuses buying shares get huge option payouts by passing GO in a takeover situation !
Then after the millions paid out no doubt get nice jobs going forward so what incentive is there to get a higher price or play this out as a development company for shareholders over five years more ?

[quepassa] 13/8/2015 10:56

In my guess I don't think that Quintain asked any of their surveyors for new property valuations.

My guess is that Quintain asked each of

Savills
Cushmans
CBRE
JLL
Lambert Smith
Christie

whose reply letters can be found at the end of the Offer document, to give their opinion if there was any "MATERIAL DIFFERENCE" since their March valuations.

The written replies from each of the valuers are astonishingly similar - almost word perfect one against the other. It's almost as if they were given a script to reply by in my opinion.

They all replied that there was no material difference.

What remains totally unclear is precisely what is the definition of MATERIAL DIFFERENCE.

Does anyone know the RICS or RICS RED BOOK definition of MATERIAL or MATERIAL DIFFERENCE in relation to property valuations please?

No-one will convince me that London property prices have not moved up since March. Especially the Quintain estate in Wembley where London Residential has clearly gone up in value over the last five months.

There needs in my view either to be NEW VALUATIONS or written confirmation that the March values are the same.

No surveyor has said the current values are the same as the March values.

If the NAV may potentially have gone up by 2% 0r 3% since March, that should not be handed to Lone Star or anyone else on a plate in my opinion.

The TAKEOVER CODE does not give a definition of MATERIALITY for Clause 29.4 for valuations.

In my opinion, shareholders need collectively to DEMAND NEW VALUATIONS.

If, for example the NAV may have increased by 2 or 3% since March, it would effectively mean that Lone Star are paying a mere 4 or 5% over NAV.

That would be far too low in my view.

Quintain should make available a copy of their 30th. July instruction letter to the various surveyors requesting confirmation about valuations.

Quintain should be required by shareholders in my view to provide UP-TO-DATE NEW VALUATIONS with HARD FIGURES from the VALUERS - not just a statement if there has been a material change without each of the SURVEYORS confirming what precise figure they use if something is material or not.

In my opinion only, the Offer from Lone Star/Bidco remains far too low, does not provide an adequate reward to shareholders for the inherent upside to Quintain and significantly undervalues the Company.

In my view this is a very important and prudent step to take to require NEW VALUATIONS to be made available. Especially as the current management would it seems be retained by Bidco under new employment/remuneration/incentivisation contracts as per Clause 7, Page 16 of the Offer document.

As we know Lone Star Ref IV has mentioned a 25% IRR in presentations earlier this year to Investors. It would appear that such value is inherent in Quintain and such value should not be given up lightly in my opinion by shareholders against a very strong London market .

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[cszjrh2] 13/8/2015 10:36

Submitted 50K "thanks but no thanks' "Hopefully the institutions will be doing the same... If the Board want extra funding to accelerate development of Wembley they should be finding us a partner not selling out, IMO.

[underhill] 13/8/2015 08:44

Oh, I see I'm duplicating your point bjsnt.

[underhill] 13/8/2015 08:42

IMO wrongly, SelfTrade have sent advisory notes to say their default position is to accept the offer on behalf of their clients (because it is "a recommended offer") unless they hear to the contrary (before 2nd September).

[bjsnt] 12/8/2015 16:34

Well, rightly or wrongly, I have asked my broker to decline this offer on my behalf.

According to their memo, as it was a recommend offer, they were going to accept it on my behalf unless I notified them by 2 September.

Other holders may wish to check that their broker will not accept on their behalf (unless they want to accept)

[trytotakeiteasy] 11/8/2015 14:09

Offer document published... interesting to see what happens now.. deadline for accepting 1pm 9th September. My guess is we will get a lot of Quintain institutional shareholders saying 131p isn't enough before then.

[quepassa] 07/8/2015 15:25

Quite fascinating to follow the plethora of positions being taken in Quintain since the 29th. July announcement.

Lots of long positions. A clear sign that certain investors believe there is more to come.

For example, just now an RNS was released showing that an entity called TT Int'l ( a high-Alpha long-only hedge fund ) had an long position of c 8.5million shares being 1.6147% of Quintain.

The RNS shows that TT Int'l have further INCREASED their long position in Quintain by the equivalent of another 400,000 shares in CFD form at a price of 131.25 pence.


Seems like certain institutional investors may or may not think that there is more meat on the bone than the original low-ball offer of 131p.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 07/8/2015 09:03

Radio silence.

I personally can trace no-one who has a positive thing to say about this low-ball offer from distressed asset buyer Lone Star.

I personally have not seen a single article, review, newspaper report from any financial reporter saying that this is a good offer or praising the offer or pointing out any merits about it.

At 131p, this offer is very poor in my view and grossly undervalues Quintain.

The Directors' collective 0.3% holding does not carry any weight in my view and in my opinion should be not be an influencing factor. They stand to gain handsomely from the early pay-out of significant executive options.

It remains wholly unsatisfactory in my opinion that negotiations with Lone Star were held behind closed doors with investors being shut out.

Lone Star is renowned as an opportunistic buyer of distressed assets.

If the management of Quintain had given a dividend, then there would not have been a discount to NAV of such proportions which has been a magnet for Lone Star.

The suggested IRR of 25% which Lone Star Ref IV has targeted on the fund would seemingly also apply to the potential purchase of Quintain, in my view.

If Lone Star can get a handsome IRR on Quintain, we should in my view action for new management at Quintain who have the competence, ambition, confidence to be able to achieve a similar IRR without the Company being sold at such a low price.

In my view, it is a lousy offer at 131p.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[maddox] 05/8/2015 11:50

I think that we can safely assume that this deal will exceed the Lone Star Cowboy's investment criteria.

A low-ball offer in August - and no doubt they will be pressing to push this through asap whilst people are on holiday.

I think that we have to question Lazards' role in these proceeding - to what degree are they independent and to what extent are they looking after the interests of shareholders? There appears to be a Lazards clique at the top of this business - and lazards seem to be involved in every deal - including this takeover.

I think that there are quite a lot of questions that shareholders need to ask and be answered before we can be satisfied that this is a fair deal.

If you haven't already - please email me at [e-mail] and let me know your holding and BB handle - and perhaps we'll together get some answers.

Regards, Maddox