Quindell Share Discussion Threads

[ettienne1951] 23/3/2015 16:53

Despite QLS being the main driver of group revenue and EBITDA,clearly it hasn't turned into the renowned 'cashcow' and is acting as a major drag on capital employed; hence management's desire to divest itself.

I think talk of valuation is all rather speculative at the moment, one way or the other, since we don't know the extent to which Q1/15 cashflow performed against guidance and guidance would have been based on forward looking forecasts from Q3/14 onwards, giving rise to the management's discredited October 2014 guidance about 2014 outlook and in particular that: the consistent track record of cash collection up to then) underpinned "H1 2015 guidance of up to £100m inflow without significant reliance on NIHL cases, with NIHL offering potential upside in H1 2015." Of course, they would have given more precise guidance, with supported analysis and assumptions' to their banks as part of their covenants.

The PwC review into accounting policies, particularly rev recognition, will have investigated historical cash inflow rates for various claims types, as well as the conversion rates; that is discounting those claims that are dismissed or significantly scaled down or up.

That will determine whether the accruals policy applied up to Q4/14 was fair overall for accounting purposes or whether it was too optimistic. The banks will certainly want to know that their lending is soundly underpinned and will have had reasons explained to them why Q4 expectations were undershot and how it is improving or not as the case may be in 2015.

Clearly, cashflow was a significant issue for manangement in Q4/14 as "growth in cash receipts in the final quarter of the year has not been as significant as previously anticipated." so as to trigger "initiatives (being taken) to improve the working capital profile of the Group." The question is to what extent did Q1/15 cash receipts perform (excluding those initiatives already taken).

In turn, if PwC determine that cashflow forecasts into 2015 and beyond were optimistic, their revision (due to a more 'conservative' revenue recognition policy recommendation) will play a part in determining whether the carrying values of assets in the balance sheet, such as goodwill as well as related revenue accruals themselves, have been impaired.

[elcapital] 23/3/2015 16:40

Im making a point. The share price hardly moved.

[investordave] 23/3/2015 16:38

Where do you get the 10% from elcap?

[elcapital] 23/3/2015 16:36

Right, OK. Is that why they fell nearly 10% at the end?

[investordave] 23/3/2015 16:35

A friend in the city. Told that the day to day actions of the shorters are relentless.

[elcapital] 23/3/2015 16:33

How do you not know it is not long selling?

[dasv] 23/3/2015 16:05

el C - yes EFH loans.
--

Malcomm - Yes he did and I initially sold OPAY because I guess PI's would sell.
Judge the judges.

I thought the Shareprophet articles were long-winded (by Nigel S, not TW) and only made one valid point: the CEO is earning a packet and he did use an EFH loan. I don't think he RNS'd it as a "share purchase" though RT/Laurence Moose stylee.

Then I bought dips and sold tops, followed by a buy and hold on Dec 16th. Massive day for me today (still long).

I think they got it wrong on OPAY but not on QPP.

One difference is OPAY's cash flow.

Having said all this I do think OPAY is a risky stock (dependent on one unnamed Asian customer) and I don't like the look of Skrill as a business. It's a bit like PLUS: really good free cash flow and margins, but how sustainable is it?

[seagreen] 23/3/2015 15:59

Motion to the bears seconded.....

[dasv] 23/3/2015 15:06

Tony - it's incredibly hard to value.

Loads of accruals.

loads of payables to be netted off.

Loads of Goodwill on the balance sheet.

RT's scatter gun approach of acquisition might have bought the odd workable business amongst the non-workable ones.

Only once everything's been netted off and e.g. QLS valued according to actual sustainable cash flow, might we be able to get a valuation. QPP aren't helping PI's here: they could release PWC right now in full and let the market make up its own mind.

[elcapital] 23/3/2015 14:56

Wasnt it something to so with the EFH loans?

[elcapital] 23/3/2015 14:55

You could read it like that. I said many months ago that I thought they may not go bust now, although I still maintain there is a possibility. If you look at my last statement it says a MINIMUM of 50%, so its not that bullish!

No surprise though that a bull would read positive into that!

[tonybaloni] 23/3/2015 14:48

0p 40p 60p

you are definitely getting more bullish EL...

[dasv] 23/3/2015 14:48

seagreen - I've had a look at your posts and they are fairly rabid.

E.g.
23 Feb 2015
seagreen - "But there is a certainty that the current market cap is probably understated by 50 to 100%"

I took you up on this but AFAIK you didn't reply:-

"oh yeah? why do you think there is certainty it's undervalued? If so why hasn't the market picked up on this?

Why did MS sell?

Why did Tosca sell?

Why did RT sell?

Why is PWC investigating accounts?

etc. etc.
"

[malcolmmm] 23/3/2015 14:47

A few months ago TW tried to but the boot into OPAYMENTS said their was something dodgy about them that he couldn't put his finger on it but they would notbe in his shifty fifty. They were around the £3 mark I think. I bought loads on the weakness. Now well over £5 up 34% today on news and of pending promotion to the ftse250. Nice one Tom LOL

[millse] 23/3/2015 14:33

You should just ignore EL, his purpose in life is to disrupt, he gains by being paid one way or another by doing that.
Theres hundred of posts each and the vast majority are just bickering and no useful information.

[seagreen] 23/3/2015 13:54

I am still trying to find a sensible bear to have a reasonable discussion with as to why they are currently short ....
if they think its less of a short...
or indeed a risk of a gap up......

I am not a rabid bull and in fact reduced my holdings on the last news by a third...but sensible chat on here is difficult to find..in fact I am in for free now but that is just sensible

S&G have not denied there has been a discussion of a value of £640m

Of course it might not happen...but there is a risk it might and a valuation of £900m...

Not sure why they dont take a stake and do an earn in to gradually take control...anyway no doubt all options being looked at

But it seems this could mid term be worth between £1.20 to £2.00 once the dealings have been concluded

[dt1010] 23/3/2015 13:30

yeah right lol, as if you haven't peeked...loser

[elcapital] 23/3/2015 13:09

steamy, price fell from 652 to intra day 26, doesnt that tell you something?