Quadrise Share Discussion Threads

[cszjrh2] 18/9/2015 16:02

Ok, come on, which of you just sold almost 4.9 million shares at 129.75p....?!So someone doesn't believe the offer will be increased, or go through, or is comfortable leaving £60K on the table and getting their hands on their cash a few weeks early...Interesting to see who when the RNS comes out. SoP

[jaws6] 18/9/2015 10:06

all fund manager who hold at QED should read this story to think ??

And make mind up is QED worth more or not ??

HOUSE prices are growing at a robust pace this month while mortgage lending has surged as the housing markets heat up.

Estate agent Knight Frank’s house price sentiment indicator today scored 59.3 for September, with scores above 50 indicating price growth. The fastest current growth is in London.

Households’ overall expectations of price growth over the next 12 months nudged up to a score of 70 from 69.5. However, prices in the south are expected to rise much more quickly than those in the north.

[inki] 18/9/2015 09:53

Another vote against - with my modest holding.
Property is a long term investment and selling at a 'current' discount makes no sense.

[glavey] 18/9/2015 00:54

The Fed's 'hold' this evening must make QED more attractive on future returns basis, unless things in China get very 'iffy' and cause significant contagion.

The refugees/economic migrants can only put more pressure on available housing stock.

Can't see any point in accepting during the extension period. May as well just wait it out.

[winsome147] 17/9/2015 12:00

I voted no ofr my substantial holding. I don't necessarily think Lone Star will up their bid once they fail at 131p, or if an alternative buyer will offer upwards of 140p. But at least the share price should still hold up at current levels as the market knows what the company is worth and will still anticipate a better offer down the line.

It's a no brainer. Let's hold out for 140p+.

[maddox] 15/9/2015 14:35

Hi QP,

Likewise I've rejected their lousy offer.

With some takeovers it can be a difficult choice cash now or value later but I have no qualms in rejecting this offer.

Yet another article in today's City A.M.: 'Housing crisis deepens as new listings dwindle' 'The UK is facing a housing supply shortage , with London particularly badly hit' 'New property listings fell 6.6% across the UK last month, while the number of homes put up for sale in the Capital slumped a staggering 24.8%' This article is based on the Property Supply Index compiled by HouseSimple.com

With every day that goes by 131p looks more unattractive. It's time OUR Board recognized that this offer is not in THEIR shareholder' best interest and withdraw their recommendation.

Regards, Maddox

[quepassa] 15/9/2015 05:32

For avoidance of doubt, I have again DECLINED and SAID NO to the extended 131p offer in respect of all of my holdings in Quintain.

I have instructed my stockbrokers accordingly.


In my opinion, the 131p offer significantly undervalues the true worth of the Company.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[maddox] 14/9/2015 13:17

Hi Jaws6,

Whatever makes you think that the management, PR firms, analysts and financial institutions are not reading the BBs? In my experience they certainly are.

Regards, Maddox

[quepassa] 14/9/2015 11:23

Well, you certainly make a very, very interesting point.

Many people perhaps might agree.

I always like to see a bid rejected a couple of times before finally being accepted and recommended by management at a higher price.

I also much prefer when a Company informs its shareholders that they are in preliminary discussions with a certain party which may or may not lead to an offer being made for the Company.

I'd love to know management's rationale for not doing that in this situation.

In my opinion it is good market etiquette and good corporate governance to let shareholders know that you are in preliminary discussions.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[jaws6] 14/9/2015 11:22

Why big shareholders not looking what we reading here .Not doing proper job them managers taking 131 p .
6904 post does raise some questions for QED board .

[colly01] 14/9/2015 11:18

All

I have today re instructed to reject the offer on my behalf.

I'm sure we will receive at least 1.50 per share if we hold out.

[trytotakeiteasy] 14/9/2015 11:09

QuePassa - there appears to be a massive conflict of interest here. The present management are likely to stay and get paid more under the ownership of Lone Star.... they have very few shares in Quintain.... the whole thing in my view stinks...... investors are being taken for mugs...

[quepassa] 14/9/2015 11:06

According to an article dated 21st August in The Estates Gazette, the approach to Quintain by Lone Star took place a couple of months before the formal offer.

It remains in my opinion unsatisfactory that Quintain did not inform shareholders or the market that they were in preliminary discussions.

The Estates Gazette article references a rare interview with Angus Dodd, Lone Star's MD of UK and Ireland which makes fascinating reading.

The article also states the following:

"It will not be amalgamated with other aspects of the Lone Star portfolio or be taken on by its asset management arm Hudson. All of Quintain’s management is expected to remain in place."

What I personally do not understand is the how article can report that management are expected to stay in place if any of salary/incentivaisation/bonuses/profit-sharing/remuneration have not already been discussed in principle.

Although, nothing has been formally agreed in terms of a retention plan for Quintain senior management and executives, in my view it should be made public knowledge what, if anything, may or may not have been discussed in principle and or outlined in terms of a retention plan for senior management.

The article also discusses that a new Masterplan for Wembley is expected to be submitted early next year to Brent to incorporate parts of Quintain's unconsented lands, including the down-at-heel nearby Wembley Retail Park.

I personally do not recall, inter alia, that such information was given in the Offer Document about a New Masterplan or about Wembley Retail Park. It seems to me in my opinion only that this may or may not be material information.

A new Masterplan would undoubtedly release significant extra value from the current Quintain estate in my view.

This in many ways is one of the reasons why, in my opinion,the price of 131p remains wholly unsatisfactory and does not in my view represent fair value nor compensate shareholders adequately for the build-out potential of Wembley.

My personal reading of the article is that a fair amount seems to have been going on behind the scenes.

The article which speaks to Angus Dodd, MD UK/Ireland of Lone Star is in my view important reading for Quintain shareholders.

Link to full article




The article includes the words:- "In Lone Star’s view, the estate is worth more than the sum of its parts." .

Personally, I cannot disagree with that statement but it makes me believe that far too much of the likely upside inherent in Quintain is being given away at a price which is FAR TOO LOW at 131p.


The above article certainly reinforces my personal view that the 131p remains wholly unacceptable.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[maddox] 14/9/2015 09:06

Hi Guys,

Lone Star Cowboy's will be considering what price they need to pay to secure the 75% acceptances they need. The more rejections they get to this extended (re-tabled) offer, the higher the price they will pitch.

I've just rejected again the lousy offer for my holdings, and suggest all holders do likewise.

Just say NO!

Regards, Maddox

[maddox] 11/9/2015 12:34

Hi QP

Just to further emphasise your point. The 7% 'premium' that our Board have gladly accepted is a premium to NAV. Whereas the house price inflation of 6% will apply to the GROSS value of the completed developments. The NAV is net the debt which will not be subject to the inflation.

Regards Maddox

[sf5] 11/9/2015 09:31

Found these two articles - apologies if already posted. One is 'old' - 29th July.

hxxp://costarfinance.com/2015/09/09/lone-stars-quintain-estates-offer-extended-for-two-weeks-after-53-backing/

hxxp://costarfinance.com/2015/07/29/lone-stars-quintain-strike-capitalises-on-london-resi-market-interest-rate-fears/

[quepassa] 11/9/2015 08:34

Good post. - Thanks.

I am not at all sure that they will manage to pull in the remaining 22% to go unconditional. Personally, against such strong data, I don't think they will.

I see no forecasts that we are at the top of the cycle. The demand for London housing is off the graph - especially more reasonably priced flats- as the numbers of people wanting to buy property in the Capital for varying reasons shows no sign of abating.

But an important point is that we'd get your 145p and much, much more over time, if the Company wasn't sold!

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[winsome147] 11/9/2015 08:18

QP, I agree. Directors probably negotiated a good deal whereas they keep their jobs and future bonuses as part of any sale, plus retain a stake in the business. No one has so far come along to outbid Lonestar so I feel they may let this run for the duration of the extension in the hope that they will eventually get the 75% they need. Otherwise they would have upped the offer already.

The flipside is, if no other bidder comes along then it is starting to look like a fair price anyway. Not as if its rocket science weighing up investments in London property. If its such a bargain (which some of us think) then why has no one else put in a higher bid? Perhaps there is a perceived risk that the market is near the top of the cycle yet it will still be some years before Quintain's assets are turned to hard cash.

I'm still hoping for 145p per share somehow before this is over.

[quepassa] 11/9/2015 08:02

AN UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH.

If you cannot believe The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), who can you?

RICS yesterday DOUBLED their forecast following a survey for house price inflation for 2015 from 3% to 6%.

In my view, most of that increase is post the May General Election and since the March valuations on which the current bid is based.

If prices for residential are forecast to rise 6% this year ( and perhaps more in London), it makes a price of March NAV + 7% based on March valuations look laughable in my opinion.

Surely Quintain management must recognise the surge in the market since March as per the RICS survey and RICS' revised forecasts.

Quintain need in my view to provide shareholders with new valuations and a Trading Update.

In my view, it may be fair to expect that the portfolio value of Quintain's residential estate would rise by the RICS forecast of 6% anyway this year - if not more.

The following lengthy article from the Daily Mail discusses the situation in depth and is very interesting to read:



In my opinion only, the value of the Offer from BidCo looks worse and worse for shareholders by the day as the market continues to provide such strong data about surging house prices, house price inflation, record low stocks of housing, enormous demand for housing and extraordinarily positive results from all property developers.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 10/9/2015 21:26

Yes!

QP

[winsome147] 10/9/2015 21:14

so can those who voted 'No' revote with a 'Yes' if the offer is improved?

[kramch] 10/9/2015 14:25

This looks a pretty poor response given that our well connected directors have probably been talking to their city chums to vote their discretionary fund holdings for the deal. It seems the majority of independently minded investors have given it the thumbs down.

As posted at the outset of this offer I see enormous upside in developing what we have at Wembley, (over and above the current valuations) we don't have to do deals or buy land, just build it!
Hopefully the Texans will realise that there are enough savvy investors who can see through this opportunistic bid.

All IMHO,
K

[bscuit] 10/9/2015 09:59

QP--thanks--back into box. I didn't accept.

[quepassa] 10/9/2015 09:14

Maddox.

Exactly. A NO decision is a tougher decision to make. I see little that will change those NO decisions. Indeed, on the contrary the great flow of such positive news for the sector and London valuations will further reinforce the NO decisions in my view.


Bscuit.

Read the Offer Document/Prospectus which you can find on the QED website.

It doesn't really work like that. Bidco need 75% to go "unconditional". As per Clause 16.3 on p.21.

If the offer does not go unconditional (ie they don't get 75%) the Offer lapses and the shares go back to their owners. -

At this point, with 53.6% acceptances they have not acquired any control.

They have to get to 75% - and in my view that is looking less and less likely unless they improve the terms of the offer.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[bscuit] 10/9/2015 08:54

I'm being naive, but could LS choose to complete the purchase with acceptances since they have acquired effective control.

Presumably management was to tender its resignation then new directors will haveto be found with the cooperation of remaining shareholders?