Quadrise Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 16/4/2013 13:54

Build to rent fund set to provide 5 year debt at 2.07% to Greenwich Peninsula JV and Quintain Estate direct (presumably for Wembley). Nice.

"EG Resi Summit: Housing minister Mark Prisk, speaking at the EG Residential Summit in London today, announced details for the first tranche of recipients for the government's £1bn build-to-rent fund.

A total of 45 firms will be given access to the fund, which allows developers to borrow at just 2.07% for a five-year period.

...

The 45 recipients of the £1bn fund are:

...

Greenwich Peninsula

...

Quintain Estates"

[quepassa] 12/4/2013 09:12

Latest major shareholdings. Taken from QED web-site.

The table shows BlackRock at 4.1% whereas yesterday's RNS mentioned 5%. The difference is the c. 0.9% held in CFD form and not physical shares.

Caledonia 10.62%
Standard Life 10.08%
Henderson Global 9.4%
PGM 5.39%
Third Ave Mgmt 4.22%
BLACKROCK 4.1%
JPM AM 3.02%


Major Shreholders would now appear to account for some 47% of physical shares.

This is good as it would not necessarily hamper the possibility of someone building stake in Quintain should they desire.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 11/4/2013 10:04

When BLACKROCK takes 5% in a Company, that is a very positive sign in my opinion.

Regularly regarded as having some of the best analytics in the world, a significant purchase by Blackrock in Quintain Estates cannot be ignored.

Interesting that the holding in Quintain is part equity and part CFD.

BlackRock's major purchase of Quintain equity will help support the share price of Quintain.

Another major institutional investor taking a sizeable stake in Quintain is a significant development on the register of major shareholders.

This is positive news for the share price and share price development in my view.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[scburbs] 03/4/2013 11:26

FT article on the Hotel sale continues to reference a sale of 1/3 of QED's iQ stake (perhaps Wellcome Trust will also sell 1/3 to move to a 33/33/33 JV).

I expect this to be sold at close to NAV which was £95.8m at 30 September 2012 and is probably higher at 31 March 2013, so another £30-35m could be raised here.

"The company declined to comment on the sale process on Tuesday but Quintain is understood to be searching for a buyer for a third of its 50 per cent stake in iQ, its student housing division, which has properties in London, Bristol, Leeds and Edinburgh and is co-owned by the Wellcome Trust, one of the UK's largest institutional investors."

[quepassa] 03/4/2013 10:51

How do you know I don't engage with the company and directors already by a whole number of means? How do you know I don't already attend AGM's? You may wish to look at my post number 996 from 2009 for example.

The Bulletin Boards are one of a number of useful tools for so doing. In my experience, if you have a chat with a single Director, sometimes that's as far as it goes. When you make observations in a semi-public forum like a Bulletin Board, potentially all Board Members will see them, as well as a Company's press and corporate finance advisers. Didn't Quintain advertise some time back a position/job opening specifically for someone to monitor media feedback?

In terms of the return on the share. Yes and no. The recent upwards movement is good. And credit in my opinion mostly goes to Max James for that.

But the starting point should be the 49pence at which the Company sold new equity when Rucker came on board in 2009 with the Rights Isuue.

Judged against the 49p, a rise to 66p over this time frame is mediocre at best and not even as good as the FTSE indeces' returns. That reflects poorly on Rucker in my view who didn't manage to galvanise his Board to do better for shareholders in my opinion over this extended time-frame. -Although, there has admittedly and latterly been a discernibly postive sea-change since James took the helm.

I beg to disagree on the topic of when dividends should start to be paid. I think it is incumbent on the Board to countenance an early return to paying dividends as well as ensuring an uplift in Net Asset Values.

Of course I understand the strategy. It is spelt out clearly. But the Board need to focus on the importance of getting that dividend going sooner rather than later.

Scurbs, for whom I have a great deal of respect for the great integrity of his posts, mentions the year 2014. That is not so far away and fits also the QED strategic flow diagram . Although 2013 would be even better.




The Company paid dividends for many years. They should start again. Soon. Five years of no dividends is a long enough "holiday" and now, if they want to be taken increasingly seriously again like certain other peer-group property investment/development companies, they should be able to target to pay a dividend in the very near future.



ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[scburbs] 03/4/2013 10:37

Also worth remembering that Greenwich is set to be a cash cow to help fund Wembley build out.

Page 7 shows projected cashflow from Greenwich of £135m over the next 6 years before development profits! A great deal to have steady positive cash flow during a period when a major capital intensive regeneration is being undertaken!

[scburbs] 03/4/2013 10:11

It is worth remembering where the big profits are. QED have very helpfully (slide 64) projected the future gross profits from the Wembley land (excludes the investment assets). This is £418m or 80p per share! Now they won't realise all of this themselves (i.e. some will probably go to housebuilders if they sell plots, some to finance providers etc.), but this and Greenwich resi is where the future potential is over the next decade or so.

[911man] 03/4/2013 10:02

Well said Davidosh. Not sure that the Divi is relevant to this type of company at a stage of possibly great growth. Would be nice to see some news on the disposal of the secondary properties.

[davidosh] 03/4/2013 09:21

QP....Is that how you engage with directors? Why not attend an Agm and raise your points with ALL the board as I do or even attend one of the many presentations I arrange?
I think you need to understand the strategy being adopted here. Dividends are not the current priority...At least the share price moving from 38p up to 66p in the last year shows that there is scope for a good return here even without a dividend if directors continue to show they can extract value from the assets.

[scburbs] 03/4/2013 09:14

It will be good to see QED return to the dividend paying list, but I think this will not happen until the profits from the resi in Wembley and Greenwich start to be crystallised, perhaps 2014/15. First priority is to get debt sustainably below £400m whilst building out the pipeline. The Knight Dragon deal to 100% fund Greenwich certainly helps with the pipeline costs (and I believe is excluded from the £400m target), but there is still Wembley build out to fund.

[quepassa] 03/4/2013 08:01

What would you suggest?

We start agitating and beating the drum two years after they eventually start making profits that shareholders ought to get dividends?

Or we start sending management advance signals NOW loud and clear and in simple terms that they need to start taking notice that shareholder patience at the distinct lack of any shareholder dividend return for many years is fast running out.

In the case of Quintain, Chairman Rucker signed off the Rights Issue that they would create shareholder value. You can do that two ways. By capital increase in share price or paying dividends. Capital increase has been pretty pathetic. Dividends non-existent.Rucker's track record of creating shareholder value has , in my opinion, been pretty dreadful over his tenure.

Two final points.

1.Dividends do not have to be paid out of profits. They can be paid out of Company monies. Frankly, taking £5m or £10million out of this year's £185million of disposal proceeds and paying a small shareholder dividend would not unduly hamper Quintain but would do it an enormous power of good in the investing communities and show a sign of good faith to shareholders.

2.We know Quintain and their advisors regularly monitor bulletin board chat. This is an excellent semi-public forum in which to send them a clear message that they are failing long-suffering shareholders by not having managed to produce any dividend whatsoever for many years. The sooner they take that message on board, the better for all of us, including you.

I reiterate my my view that Quintain need to start paying/producing a dividend.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[davidosh] 02/4/2013 20:54

QP..Apologies for being old fashioned but surely you need to make profits before paying dividends...the company has been making losses for years ! Reducing the debt and building out the asset base is the priority here I think.

[quepassa] 02/4/2013 15:32

Extract from today's excellent RNS:-

"These transactions bring the total amount realised from disposals and capital recycling during the financial year to approximately £185 million."

Excellent news.

Well done .


NOW IS THE TIME TO START PAYING SHAREHOLDER DIVIDENDS. THIS IS LONG OVERDUE.

SHAREHOLDERS HAVE RECEIVED NOTHING SINCE THE ARRIVAL IN OCTOBER 2009 OF THE NEW CHAIRMAN BY WAY OF DIVIDEND. THE LAST DIVIDEND DECLARED AND PAID WAS AN EMBARASSINGLY LONG TIME AGO IN 2008.

MANAGEMENT HAVE SAID THEY WANT TO INCREASE SHAREHOLDER VALUE. NOW IS THE TIME TO WALK THE TALK.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[scburbs] 02/4/2013 10:09

Nothing wrong with selling preferred equity in the Wembley Hilton asset, but what is the coupon and what is QED's increasing share of the income and what does it do to the valuation of the remaining 50% interest on QED's balance sheet. Always nice to raise another £30m, but impossible to evaluate on such scant detail. Looks like the Hilton's current occupancy is not sufficient to support senior debt and perhaps just sufficient to meet Oaktree's preferred return.

The completion of LDO and finishing of the Civic Centre and landscaping from Wembley Park tube should help the occupancy levels as this part of the site will finish looking like a building site which can't be great for occupancy in a four star hotel!

"Quintain's gross proceeds from the transaction are £30.1 million, which is in line with the valuation at 30 September 2012 for a 50% interest in the property. Under the terms of the transaction, Oaktree will receive a preferred return, with Quintain receiving an increasing share of the income stream once the preferred return has been paid. The new Hotel, which opened in July, sits at the heart of Quintain's wider Wembley regeneration scheme. The Company expects to benefit from this income stream from the beginning of the 2014/15 financial year.

It is the intention of the partners to introduce non-recourse senior debt to the joint venture in due course to re-finance part of their equity investment."

[r ball] 02/4/2013 08:25

And after a pause: we resume. Narrowing of discount??

[quepassa] 25/3/2013 08:58

Far too cheap in my view at 40% discount to NAV, especially in a strongly rising market for London residential development combined with new Govt initiatives on Help to Buy for mortgages up to £600k.

Flight money and City money will be circling Greenwich high-end apartments/houses.

Last week SONGBIRD ESTATES reported an UPLIFT in valuation of 9.9% in their retail portfolio and an overall UPLIFT in portfolio valuation of 4.1%.

It would seem to me to be distinctly possible/likely that Quintain may also show an increase in portfolio valuation this year. Quintain can but benefit from further development and growth at Canary Wharf bringing more residents and influence to the modern financial hub of London and Europe.

SONGBIRD make very upbeat comments about Canary Wharf which is based immediately across The Thames to Quintain's Greenwich Peninsular development.

Much more encouraging and improving sector back-drop for sector and Quintain

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[scburbs] 20/3/2013 17:44

As you can see from the Property Week headline, these are very real improvements for the housing market.

"Budget 2013: "Dramatic" measures to boost housing supply"

[scburbs] 20/3/2013 15:05

A 5 year interest free loan on new builds below £600k will be very good for flat sales at both Greenwich (Southern section) and Wembley and some of the smaller Peninsula Quays flats. It also has the advantage of making new build much more attractive to buyers compared to existing housing stock. Very good news for QED IMV.

"introduce a major new housing scheme, Help to Buy, with two key elements. First, from April 2013, the Government will extend First Buy to all those who aspire to own a new build home. The Government will provide an equity loan worth up to 20 per cent of the value of a new build home, repayable once the home is sold, and significantly widen the eligibility criteria to ensure as many people as possible are able to benefit, including increasing the maximum home value to £600,000 and removing the income cap constraint"

[quepassa] 20/3/2013 13:35

Help-to-Buy initiative just announced in 2013 Budget by Osborne is excellent news for house-builders and will be of great value to Quintain.

The government assistance on obtaining mortgage deposits will be an enormous help to stimulate home-buying.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[911man] 20/3/2013 10:33

Clearing out a seller by the look of things.

[aberdare] 19/3/2013 16:47

mykai more to the point why did it drop on friday.

[mykai] 18/3/2013 10:59

not complaining but why up on a day like today any news due that i have missed

[scottishfield] 15/3/2013 18:55

Ut 62p ? any ideas why?