Purplebricks Share Discussion Threads

[chuckol] 09/7/2018 18:02

PURP up again today. Topvestwinnie wrong again.

[ltcm1] 09/7/2018 12:00

Personally I think it has some validity because Purp is not offering online so much as an alternative pricing model.

There is nothing to stop other agents adopting the same model for example. All that will happen is the no sale fees will compensate for the reduced comm on sales.

Purp has no USP and is merely smoke and mirrors. Infact their only diffferential is they are using advertising very heavily. However due to the weakness of others and fragmentation in the industry it might just work.

[rogthepodge] 09/7/2018 10:50

Relatively few, and growing fast. Vast market to secure.
Andy, give it a rest. Get back to TW bum licking.

[andy] 09/7/2018 10:13

Rog,

"The bricks and mortar guys are being picked apart by online."

-------

What % of UK house sales are online?

[rogthepodge] 09/7/2018 09:48

bricks and mortar agents are a separate sector imo. Comparative valuations are not helpful.

The bricks and mortar guys are being picked apart by online.

[ltcm1] 09/7/2018 09:15

With respect Henchard, Purp is neither a Globo or a Quindell. They have cash and no debt and the Axel Springer raising was something of a coup.

Yes the management seem aggressive and brash to me but they have come a long way in three years. At least they can't be accused of too much management and slow decision making.

Personally I have my doubts but then again Virgin went a long way on no more than a brand. They seem popular with the public despite some bad publicity. The payoff could be big so the risk/reward ratio seems about right, if on the high side.

OTOH 100p is still a high capitalisation and bigger than Foxtons. What I am saying is both opinions seem credible.

[rogthepodge] 09/7/2018 08:42

Nice attempt at spin Henchard.
I invest in the hope that the company grows and is profitable, and at some point rewards me handsomely.
E.g.another Woodford stock, REDD

[chucko1] 09/7/2018 06:28

I would put it rather more scientifically:

Let’s suppose there is some degree of “hope” in any given investment. Fine, but I would still wish to be well researched and gain an understanding of the range of returns I could expect. We could then define hope (good luck) as the sum of probabilities of the various positive return scenarios for that given investment and “bad luck” as being the complement of this.

Ideally, one would find investments that achieved two things:

1. Maximised the ratio of expected return/bad luck
2. Had low correlation so that the cause of bad luck associated with each investment was not identical (or is as dissimilar as possible).

A simple model which can easily be improved, but at least it tries to move beyond pure hope, luck, chance, Mystic Meg or whatever. What it’s really saying is that a good overall assessment of probabilities is NOT related to “hope”. Hope is when one cannot or will not make these assessments for whatever reasons.

[scantrader] 09/7/2018 02:00

As posted by me over on lse ..


"Meanwhile, joint house broker Peel Hunt, which had been forecasting a maiden profit before tax of £3.8m for fiscal 2019 has revised this to a loss of £41.5m ......"

That's a hell of a downgrade! Of course they have to keep their buy rec for retail investors or they'd lose their client

[henchard] 09/7/2018 00:27

"why do people invest?'

Because they want to enjoy a share of the economic benefits of businesses that generate sufficient cash flow to both distribute cash to their shareholders and invest in the growth of the business (in order to distribute higher levels of cash to their shareholders in future).

In contrast, some people buy shares in the hope that they'll be able to sell them to "a greater fool" at a higher price some time in the future. They aren't concerned about the quality of the management of the company, what the accounts are indicating or anything else an investor in a business might be interested in. All they're focused on is "hoping" the share price goes higher than the price they bought at.

Such people "invest" in companies like Purplebricks, Quindell, Slater & Gordon, Cloudtag, Globo and so forth and end up losing a lot of money when the hype they bought into goes up in a puff of smoke.

[rogthepodge] 09/7/2018 00:01

Andy, I hate to say it, but you are being stupid

have a little think?

why do people invest?

[andy] 08/7/2018 23:46

itcm1,


Well Warren Buffet left hope out of the list of attributes an investor should have, and yet he seems to have done OK.


He's not in PURP either......

[rogthepodge] 08/7/2018 20:16

Lower second I believe, solonic. He was either not listening, or simply thick.
You choose.

[ltcm1] 08/7/2018 20:11

rog is right Andy. And it could work out.

Purp took a page ad in the Sunday Times today to say thanks to all those who have "trusted" them.

[solonic] 08/7/2018 19:48

Sorry, Mystic Meg and Joan the Wad, avid followers of shareprophets, if I’ve upset you.

[andy] 08/7/2018 15:42

Rog,


No, informed investment has nothing to do with hope!


Book of basic investing, page 1.

[andy] 08/7/2018 11:41

Rog,

"PURP is expanding in U.S. so I assume it's going well."

-------


Assume?

I wish you good luck with that, hope is not a great investment strategy.

[rogthepodge] 08/7/2018 11:09

Shorts recently got taken to the cleaners on Ocado.
PURP is expanding in U.S. so I assume it's going well.

[ltcm1] 08/7/2018 10:48

rog Ocado shows there is nothing to fear from shorting if the business is a sound one and your timescale is wide enough.

Is there any evidence they are having success in the USA??? Australia seems to have had problems.

[topvest] 07/7/2018 18:13

I think Purplebricks will probably not succeed in its global mission, and I don’t like their management style or methods which appear aggressive. I think the share price is overvalued and it’s probably worth about a £1.
However, I don’t agree with Tom that it’s a perfect short, particularly at or near the end of a bull market. I don’t short anything anyway, but surely it’s a risky short given the cash pile and could bounce higher in the short term. Not likely, but certainly possible. Those that shorted Ocado had a nasty surprise and this is not dissimilar, albeit of a lower quality.

[rogthepodge] 07/7/2018 17:01

And this scurrilous publication does nothing to persuade me that Tom's chums aren't all desperately trying to talk PURP down, for their own purposes.
This thesis has been well aired on here already, so is a mere reiteration in any case.
I smell desperation. LOL