Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 05/2/2018 07:42

RKH news sounds promising. Brent down again on rig count increase and Dow fall. No doubt some will think this is a conspiracy but posted about rig count concerns on lse in last week to two weeks. deramping? Hardly, since I cannot control the global price of brent lol and any brent fall hurts tlw as much as pmo.

[fireplace22] 05/2/2018 07:08

Tdays RNS:

Rockhopper Exploration plc (AIM: RKH), the oil and gas company with key interests in the North Falkland Basin and the Greater Mediterranean region, is pleased to provide the following update relating to Sea Lion Phase 1, in the North Falkland Basin (RKH 40% working interest).

Rockhopper announces that a Letter of Intent ("LOI") has been entered into with Diamond Offshore Drilling ("Diamond") for the provision of a suitable drilling unit for the Sea Lion Phase 1 development. The LOI grants a period of exclusivity until 31 December 2018 during which time the joint venture will negotiate binding documentation based on agreed principles for the provision of the drilling unit and vendor financing.

"2018 has already seen material progress made on our work in moving Sea Lion closer to sanction. We are delighted to have been able to enter into this LOI with Diamond with whom we enjoyed a fantastically successful, safe and cost-effective drilling campaign in the Falklands during 2010 and 2011. We believe that teaming up with Diamond is a significant step in our continued progress towards sanction with our partner Premier Oil. Having already signed LOIs for the provision of well services and logistical support, focus now moves to the sub-sea equipment suppliers where we hope to make progress during the remainder of Q1 as we continue discussions on the senior debt element of the financing plan."

[rationaleee] 04/2/2018 11:32

Steve - You are right about Sea lion. If we can get our exposure down by at least 10-15% on SL, that will be a good risk/reward imo.

Btw on Zama, if you read the 2015 HY results presentation (it also has flashback Capex details about the Solan millstone!) on slide 25, you will notice that Block 7 had primary target of 130mn bbls while for Block 2 we have a primary target of 100mn blls, so potentially we could have a similar prospect as Zama in Block 2.

Fully carried to first well on Block 2 too. And Brazil, which is a hotbed right now, is yet to be explored in 2019. If we hit another Zama type prospect in Block 2 or in Brazil accreage, then potentially selling one of the two Zama type prospects in either of the blocks/regions to fund Sea Lion wouldn't be that bad of an idea. The tables would turn really quickly for pmo in that case. What are the odds of hitting two Zama type prospects back to back?! One can hope!

[mt150] 04/2/2018 10:52

Just a point about the hedging %. Can anyone clarify if the new production from Catcher will be market price rather than hedged. The first shipments were sold at "premium" to brent so it seems could be 30K not hedged on line in MARCH/April.

[steve73] 04/2/2018 02:55

I think the other threat hanging over our heads like the Sword of Damocles is that OPEC+ still have a significant volume of production shut-in, which could be released at very little notice, should they chose.

All the while this excess remains, then large scale project investment in the industry as a whole likely to remain limited to those giving better returns in a shorter period of time.

The longer term impact IMO will be that shale and other quick wins will proliferate, and if this threatens the immediate oil price OPEC will open the taps again to quash it, giving more pain again to all.... But the lack of large scale long-term investment will ultimately lead to a longer term tightening of supply and significantly higher returns for those already in production.

I think we'll see big swings in oil-co. profitability, resulting in even larger swings in their share price as the overall industry sentiment changes.

Companies such as PMO with "new production" are well positioned to benefit in the short term, although if we proceed with major projects such as Sea-Lion this could be undermine our success, unless they are very carefully managed.

[leoneobull] 03/2/2018 21:32

Rationaleee. You do understand collars right?

[rationaleee] 03/2/2018 21:12

adg- Well said. The downturn has been horrible for the industry. This can be seen from the recent behaviour of the E&Ps, even after 2 years of oil price crash.

Today most of the oil producing companies like PMO, TLW, ENQ have become very risk averse. What I mean is that these E&Ps are too scared of the oil price volatility (and who can blame them!). Wounds from the recent oil price crash are still fresh in their minds, which has forced them to protect the oil price downside by hedging substantially more than what they did during the pre-crash period.

This becomes clear when we compare PMOs Jan 2018 Trading update with the update in Jan 2013. For 2018, PMO has hedged 40% of its oil production at less than $60/bbl. Compare that with Jan 2013 when PMO hedged around 17% of its production for 2013 at $105/bbl. In 2013, by hedging at $105/bbl PMO was trying to maximise the oil price upside by hedging less (17% of production) as they expected oil price could be higher than $105/bbl, while in 2018 its trying to maximise the downside protection by hedging the most (40% of production) as oil prices could drop below $59/bbl.

And same thing is seen across industry at TLW, ENQ, etc.

That is why IMO we will see limited upside on most of these E&Ps share prices this year even if oil price rockets above $80/bbl as majority of them have already hedged a lot of their production at much lower prices than say $80/bbl for 2018. So the benefit of higher oil prices will be limited in 2018 in most hedged E&Ps in UK. When they start hedging less, say in 2019 or beyond, that's when the real benefit of an increase in oil price will start to filter through. So the current share price performance of most of these E&Ps is reflective of their limited upside in 2018 irrespective of the higher oil prices, unless obviously oil sentiment flips(on some geopolitical event) to "buy the E&Ps first and then ask questions".
GLA

[begorrah88] 03/2/2018 19:14

Had a beer have you Leo?

[leoneobull] 03/2/2018 18:42

Copy pasted from another board. Plagiarism rules okA read for the longshttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Market-Is-Already-Balanced.html

[john09] 03/2/2018 18:25

Lucy wants 75p so he can buy 100 shares haha

[lucicavi] 03/2/2018 18:00

75p on monday

[leoneobull] 03/2/2018 16:26

Rationaleee. By incredible coincidence, your village is apparently short of a dotard

[leoneobull] 03/2/2018 16:23

Begsy. Firstly I have 75000 shares in pmo. Secondly, I post stuff that is generally useful, including articles about the macro economic situation, brent drivers good and bad. If you don't like it filter me.Thirdly, personally I find your posts about every at trade tedious.Lastly, you said I was deramping about the share price being manipulated upwards yet now you are agreeing with me, having initially disagreed at the time, bored this board ad infinitum about it being manipulated downwards for over a year.

[duckdown] 03/2/2018 12:11

Let's get back to PMO.

Wonder how far the DOW will fall from here and what impact that will have on commodities.

Expected rises in US interest rates will put pressure on crude but the supply/demand side looks positive.

Could be a fair bit of volatility over the next 6-12 months.

[mercer95] 03/2/2018 11:45

I’m long here, even longer with the drop last week but I’ll still confident PMO will recover & push on after the results 8 March, the catcher wave will be strong IMO GLA

[stansmith3] 03/2/2018 11:13

hilariousa page full of position posters (dean) and stupid c@unts like begorrah and marvin, topped off with rationallee having a go at an otherwise decent poster leoneobull

[adg] 03/2/2018 09:51

I totally agree - I am in the O&G Projects line of business and we have luckily survived this downturn, many companies have gone to the wall - this 4/5 yrs of cuts have been brutal, worse than previous 2 I have witnessed.

Investment is still very low and some of those that are spending are doing so foolishly (not all) and are going for cheapest options which I am afraid will add x months/yrs on the back end of any projects and xx£ costs

[deanroberthunt] 03/2/2018 09:43

talk now of $80 brent by end of 2018...
that's $35 fcf per barrel, assuming they'll be doing 100kboped post summer this year when Catcher is fully up and running....not exactly sure of the % gas to oil, but if I use 70kbopd @ $35.....$700-800m pa, taking downtime/maintenance into account.

sometime soon this fact will be factored into the share price and there'll be no stopping her...the $1trn of capex cuts caused by the Oil price crash hasn't even kicked in yet.