Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jotoha2] 30/9/2017 16:17

Unless there is some seriously bad news this should bounce with gusto of 65 , then blue sky to 80p plus!!

[begorrah88] 30/9/2017 14:46

Thanks for that summary and I'd be interested in your view of why the likes of Polygon have elected to increase their shorts recently. Would that be more of a hedge against a general oil long position or is it indicative of part of the warrants mechanism coming to pass soon?

[hpcg] 30/9/2017 14:25

I sold earlier in the month because it wasn't out of question that oil would take a dive and PMO would go with it. Premier is essentially a high risk / return option on the medium term price of oil. The kicker in Mexico is near enough not in the price at all but shareholders only enjoy it if PMO equity survives. Right now with the debt load as it is literally every dollar counts equity survival is that finely balanced. Catcher going relatively smoothly is also a requirement, but just how crucial it is is a function of what it gets paid in the mean time. If oil shows that this is a fake out I'll sell again. The FPSO getting through Suez without incident has removed one edge risk.
You are quite correct that I lack conviction, but that's because I think a decent rise here is one of three equally likely possibilities, though more likely now than I thought 3 weeks ago. I'd say 20% chance of zero, 30% not much movement, and 50% of a meaningful gain in the short term with more to come on top in the medium term. Conviction is more profitable than vacillation if one's conviction comes to pass, but if not it is very expensive. Bear in mind that we have been here before so to speak, in December 2016. Ultimately that went into reverse. Nothing is guaranteed.

International could bounce or at least hold at this level. That would be very good. Or it could find support at about 55.60, that's fine so long as its a decent bounce. Still ok would be strong support at the upgoing trend line in the low 54s, which is also around where the 50sma is / will be. However a break of that would see me out, and presumably at a loss. Given the strong finish to the SP500 on Friday, and the consolidation of sweet light I will be disappointed if Brent doesn't also start to consolidate. If it does I'll add more to my leveraged position as at least a visit to the 100p area becomes a high probability, but never a certainty.

I think the share price here has been entirely rational, and the shorts could still triumph. IMO their odds are getting worse, and that is ultimately beneficial to those of us taking the long side.

[begorrah88] 30/9/2017 14:19

Between Polygon & Whitebox they have 27 million shares shorted.Would that equate to about a fifth of the total CBH?Systematica have popped back over the .5% marker to appear on that register again and now PMO is showing 7.8% shorts declared over .5%

[deanroberthunt] 30/9/2017 13:57

company is over the worst, blue skies from now on....proper.
post Catcher this company will be generating $400-500m pa fcf, at $58 brent...nuff said, what's the mcap!!! 10 bagger ahoy

[begorrah88] 30/9/2017 13:39

Investopedia is always a good source of knowledge and clarification and I will take your point fully on the chin and thank you for the education.

Which makes it all the more puzzling why a sharp cookie like you, who wants to focus on profit, '.....but here an obsession with manipulation and shorters is much more important than trying to make a profit' would have sold out on the 8th of September when the share price was about 60.5p :-

hpcg - 09 Sep 2017 - 15:50:36 - 30529 of 31091 Premier - Charts and All - PMO
The phrase the shipping industry likes to use is "ruggedised". I must admit I sold out of my equity position here on Friday afternoon, anticipating a hurricane induced price dip. This has damaged the Brent chart and I now think it heads down again to the trend line. This will damage PMO somewhat, so I'll look for a lower entry. I only see oil going to maybe 52, but I think PMO will over react to the trajectory.

Only to buy back in at 62.25p+ costs on the 20th & adding again earlier this week at 65p+

Whereas my holding remained the same throughout that period and must, therefore, be performing at around a minimum 3% better?

Here's a thought:-

'..hpcg - 25 Sep 2017 - 22:37:05 - 30947 of 31091
Anyway, I trust all the whingers here took the opportunity to load up whilst oil was rising and the PMO share price wasn't? Probably not, too obsessed with the minute by minute price and "manipulation" to see the big picture.'

Maybe whinging and being obsessed with minute by minute pricing and ''manipulation'' is a better strategy for achieving a profit than decrying others but lacking conviction? ;-)

[hpcg] 30/9/2017 11:18

Loan stock Begorrah? Since when did Premier have any prefs or culs? Some light reading for you:

"When the shares were used in the short sale transaction, the initial source lost its voting rights as it was no longer the holder of record." ...

"The shares are then sold in the market, and the investor who purchases these shares becomes the holder of record for these shares, thus controlling the voting rights."

[spacecake] 30/9/2017 10:39

Catcher should be approaching Gibraltar today.

[paulbiya] 30/9/2017 08:18

OPEC members may or may not be producing oil at maximum capacity, but big oil companies are unquestionably short of reserves and new discoveries. These new discoveries and reserves could come from some of the OPEC members above or they could come, at much greater risk, from hitherto untapped potential deposits.Source. Irina slav oil price.com

[steve73] 30/9/2017 04:06

Not a bad end to the week - a little weakness from lunchtime to be expected as some of the traders not wanting to keep long position open over the weekend.

Fairly large increase in declared shorts during last week with 3 shorters increasing by a total of 0.34%, or around 1.7 MM shares. Stock-on-loan average for this month should be available next week to give an alternative view.

Cat keeping well North of the normal shipping lanes as she passes Algeria - should pass by Gibralter sometime tomorrow (sun).

Still no sign of a Solan offload..

Good w/e all...

[emilio] 29/9/2017 17:51

STARVING you idiot go to Bed ?

[marvin9] 29/9/2017 16:21

Can someone give this nut a kick in the Wollox

[leepingwong] 29/9/2017 16:05

what woes pop pop pop wean willy wonker

[leepingwong] 29/9/2017 16:02

Wou Wost Willy Wesseges

Go to bed with Hunt the c@nt

[marvin9] 29/9/2017 15:59

You forget the CEO; if he was replaced by the little grey Monkey, the share price would £1 within a week.

[spacecake] 29/9/2017 14:15

Such a long wait since Oct 2011, Encore bought by PMO for 70p per share or PMO share alternative, PMO around 333p at the time. PMO share price collapse, oil price collapse, shares suspended at one point, debts, row with debt investors that went on for months, then ZAMA so I can only assume it can't get any worse from here.

But then again - its an oil company so anything could happen!

[begorrah88] 29/9/2017 13:26

Then run along to a 'normal message board' hpcg

I really couldn't care where you turn your attention to [word of advice though, read up on loan stock before spouting off on other threads eh?]

[hpcg] 29/9/2017 13:19

Inverse head and shoulders break out with a target around 84. More importantly oil is looking healthy in what would normally be a weak quarter. On a normal message board the chart and fundamentals would be a cause for celebration, but here an obsession with manipulation and shorters is much more important than trying to make a profit.

Brazil 14th licensing round very bullish for offshore in general, and talk of oil bigger companies buying in reserves whilst they are cheap, as Total has been doing.

This week I have added to equity and doubled up my bond position. I may turn attention to ENQ - diesel shortage is one of the several factors supporting oil prices, and the first Kraken offload was sent to the Gulf coast.

[begorrah88] 29/9/2017 13:14

A nice afternoon Oil rally would be welcome to end a good week

[begorrah88] 29/9/2017 13:13

YTS boy back from lunch and 68.25 on the bid but a nice little Cameo of what can happen

[gregpeck7] 29/9/2017 12:28

Re rating going nicely now. Still silly cheap and plenty of shorts to close so don't see it stopping anytime soon

[begorrah88] 29/9/2017 11:54

YTS boy having an early lunch today?Will it fall back again at 12.50pm?